Ukraine/Inflation Poet Impacts

[eytonxav]

Down almost 5% ytd. How are your portfolios holding up? Wondering how much of the invasion threat and inflation impacts are already priced in or are we going to see a falling knife soon if russia invades.

 

[REWahoo]

What is an "Inflation Poet"?

 

[Montecfo]

We will get a further decline if there is an invasion IMHO.

 

[Jerry1]

What is an "Inflation Poet"?

I think he tried to abbreviate Portfolio and got overridden by spell check.

 

[REWahoo]

I think he tried to abbreviate Portfolio and got overridden by spell check.

+1

Better than my first thought: someone who writes poems of ever increasing length.

 

[Car-Guy]

We will get a further decline if there is an invasion IMHO.

+1 But how deep will the decline be and for how long ... I'll be buying again on the way down, at least to a point.

 

[JoeWras]

The misspelling got my attention.

There once was a year with inflation,
whose year caused much great consternation,
A poet came in,
and said with a grin,
Oh this is just a dagnab conflation.
​

 

[gcgang]

If there’s a war,
It will cost more,
Formerly rich,
Will now be poor.

 

[marko]

Down 3.4% and 4.3% behind plan. But there's 10 more months to go. And all my dividend income from year-end is already safely in the bank for this year.

 

[Montecfo]

+1 But how deep will the decline be and for how long ... I'll be buying again on the way down, at least to a point.

Not real deep or long, assuming conflict is brief as I would expect.

Otherwise all bets off.

 

[JoeWras]

I mean, who knows, right? The political/war thing is unknowable.

A combination of heavy inflation and a down market is tough for retirees. And we find ourselves there. The question is how long?

We're down 4% in net worth for the year. Investments are down a bit more, cash is the buffer for the down market. But the cash doesn't do squat for the inflation issue.

It is a bit concerning but this is a long game.

 

[pacergal]

The misspelling got my attention.

There once was a year with inflation,
whose year caused much great consternation,
A poet came in,
and said with a grin,
Oh this is just a dagnab conflation.
​

If there’s a war,
It will cost more,
Formerly rich,
Will now be poor.

These are the reasons I so enjoy this forum!

 

[marko]

Market is closed tomorrow (Monday) so maybe we'll have time for a bit more clarity to emerge one way or another. At least, not another down day.

The threat has been "any moment now" for a week or two and I wonder when the market will just bake in the news and move on.

 

[Jerry1]

These are the reasons I so enjoy this forum!

I know, right? I was going to change the title and then the poems popped up. So cool. Glad I didn’t change it.

 

[Montecfo]

Market is closed tomorrow (Monday) so maybe we'll have time for a bit more clarity to emerge one way or another. At least, not another down day.

The threat has been "any moment now" for a week or two and I wonder when the market will just bake in the news and move on.

Problem is what to bake in? Range of outcomes is very wide from no invasion to protracted war, expending war, sanctions, higher oil prices?

People make bets with investments under all assumptions. That's why no one outcome would become baked in.

 

[OldShooter]

You made me look. Generally that would not have happened for another 10 months. Our two major holdings: VTWAX is -2.75% and our TIPS -1.9%

But the only really important numbers are five or ten years out. Viewed in that context the Ukraine thing will almost certainly turn out to be noise.

 

[Aerides]

I think the uncertainty is the big downer to the markets. If there is an actual invasion, then things might stabilize, and, counter-intuitively actually improve a bit. I also think Putin is likely to string this out for as long as he can, enjoying the world watching going will-he-won't-he, so we're in for a bumpy ride for a while.

 

[Brat]

I think he will invade, the west will impose sanctions, Russia will counter with cyber attacks. This won't be a cakewalk.

The market will continue down, IMHO for about 6 months, until the Ukraine dispute is settled.

What concerns me is China giving Taiwan grief this year. Russia and China cozied up earlier so it wouldn't surprise me that they move (remember Germany and Japan).

With that scenario, the market will drop further.

Note that Turkey, another nation on the Black Sea, is bankrupt. That whole area is unstable.

 

[eytonxav]

What is an "Inflation Poet"?

Typing is not my strong suit.

 

[OldShooter]

I think he will invade, the west will impose sanctions, Russia will counter with cyber attacks. This won't be a cakewalk.

The market will continue down, IMHO for about 6 months, until the Ukraine dispute is settled.

What concerns me is China giving Taiwan grief this year. Russia and China cozied up earlier so it wouldn't surprise me that they move (remember Germany and Japan).

With that scenario, the market will drop further.

So have you sold out your equities, then?

 

[Brat]

Not all, I am 30% in cash. I have kept my US chip manufacturer and oil investments.

 

[eytonxav]

The thing that concerns me about where we are at the moment is the possibility for stagflation. I think the fed has been slow to act which might require more and larger corrections that could put a big damper on growing the economy while prices remain high and lead us into job losses and recession. I hope this does not happen and that an invasion can be avoided.

 

[Markola]

The misspelling got my attention.

There once was a year with inflation,
whose year caused much great consternation,
A poet came in,
and said with a grin,
Oh this is just a dagnab conflation.
​

The rare limerick that doesn’t rhyme with Nantucket.

 

[W2R]

Down almost 5% ytd. How are your portfolios holding up? Wondering how much of the invasion threat and inflation impacts are already priced in or are we going to see a falling knife soon if russia invades.

My portfolio is doing about like yours.

We'd all love to believe that we know and can predict future market ups and downs.

I remember back during VietNam, many were asserting with great confidence that the main reason for the war was to bolster the US economy and cause the NYSE to skyrocket upwards. Now, people seem to think the hostilities between Ukraine and Russia are doing quite the opposite.

Personally I prefer to not impute cause and effect, and to just wait. As Tolstoy supposedly said, "“When in doubt, my dear fellow, do nothing.” That's what I do, anyway. Not only has it worked reasonably well in the past, but also it allows me to use my precious time enjoying life instead of beating the numbers to death. When I want to gamble, I go down to Harrah's on Canal St. and do it there with my fun money, instead of risking my portfolio.

But YMMV, and that is perfectly fine!

 

[OldShooter]

... Personally I prefer to not impute cause and effect, and to just wait. As Tolstoy supposedly said, "“When in doubt, my dear fellow, do nothing.” ...

Warren Buffet: "Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell. ... Lethargy bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style."