Ukraine/Inflation Poet Impacts

[Pellice]

I feel so angry, seeing tanks rolling across Europe as has not happened since the Nazi invasions. The survivors of the Second World War achieved great prosperity based on a peace painstakingly stitched together out of disaster. Putin cannot erase this changed world. We here may experience some hardships, but the Russians will be pulled under the waves, and it will be a different Russia at the end of it.

 

[Magus]

It's honestly amazing that we haven't had a major war among leading countries in the world in many, many decades. It has to be among the longest in history.

I am not too terribly worried about this situation, although certainly bears watching. If we ever end up in a similar issue with China/Taiwan in the near future - that would be a much larger incident. I'll be buying a bit on the dip here and taking advantage of the big jump in bonds today to move 2-3% out of bonds and into stocks.

 

[Winemaker]

While I thought it was all fake,
I made a big mistake.
I feel like I stepped on a rake,
Strong actions, we need to take.

All kidding aside, I never thought such a brazen move would occur in modern times.

 

[eytonxav]

All kidding aside, I never thought such a brazen move would occur in modern times.

You only have to go back to 2014 when Putin took Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine.

 

[cat4ever]

Taiwan?

The biggest downside is the risk of Taiwan being next IMO, and I gotta think there's a decent chance of that happening at this point.

 

[sailor]

I feel so angry, seeing tanks rolling across Europe as has not happened since the Nazi invasions.

I agree with the rest of your sentiment, but tanks were used in Europe after WWII: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_War

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I agree with the rest of your sentiment, but tanks were used in Europe after WWII: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_War

That was one of my first conflicts I was involved in while in the AF. It was devastating and the destruction was eye opening for a 24 year old "kid" that joined the military to "see the world." Of course, many Americans were oblivious to what was going on.

 

[Major Tom]

I agree with the rest of your sentiment, but tanks were used in Europe after WWII: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_War

Didn't Soviet tanks roll into Czechoslovakia in 1968 too?

 

[tulak]

Didn't Soviet tanks roll into Czechoslovakia in 1968 too?

Yep.

 

[Gumby]

Didn't Soviet tanks roll into Czechoslovakia in 1968 too?

And East Germany in 1953, as well as Hungary in 1956.

 

[tulak]

And Hungary in 1956.

I think in that case, the Soviets were already in Hungary. They only quashed reforms by rolling into Budapest. But true that tanks were moved to squash an uprising.

If I remember correctly, Czechoslovakia was the only Soviet controlled communist country that didn’t have Soviet troops after WW2. That changed in 1968 after they invaded.

 

[braumeister]

A bit off topic, but wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall of the ISS?

Seven astronauts aboard right now: four American, two Russian, and one German. What tension there must be!

And yet if there is anywhere that cooperation is essential, it has to be there.

"I think part of the intent of the ISS program was to ... have a program where the U.S. and Russian space sectors were so closely tied together that it became sort of unthinkable to have conflict," David Burbach, a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island, told Space.com.

Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin has posted a Russian-language statement on Twitter about the relationship between the two agencies. He stated through the official Roscosmos channel that Roscosmos "values professional relations with NASA."

https://www.space.com/russia-ukraine-invasion-us-space-partnership-impacts?utm_source=SmartBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=58E4DE65-C57F-4CD3-9A5A-609994E2C5A9&utm_content=F6DA9721-C28B-4127-8AA9-21B92C0D530D&utm_term=6da6d5d5-4c44-4bf8-9502-682ebeccd4b9

 

[reneeh63]

Warren Buffet: "Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell. ... Lethargy bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style."

I love it too - and all the more because it's so easy to do!

(oh my, another poet and I didn't even know it!)

 

[marko]

The biggest downside is the risk of Taiwan being next IMO, and I gotta think there's a decent chance of that happening at this point.

+1 Worked in Taiwan for a few years. A lot of semi chips come from there. Be sad/bad to lose that supply as I'd expect we'd boycott due to a hostile takeover.

 

[OldShooter]

+1 Worked in Taiwan for a few years. A lot of semi chips come from there. Be sad/bad to lose that supply as I'd expect we'd boycott due to a hostile takeover.

Big problem for China, too, if they destroy the factories and/or end up with an insurgency that does it. I'm sure that is a major consideration for them

 

[drcha]

take a look at CXO advisory

If you are looking for a way to reduce volatility in your portfolio, I recommend this site. Their results and methods are transparent. The approach is relative strength. cxoadvisory.com. I do not work for them and do not profit from informing others about them. Being in a commodities ETF during this time has protected me from this downturn.

 

[marko]

Big problem for China, too, if they destroy the factories and/or end up with an insurgency that does it. I'm sure that is a major consideration for them

That's a good point and a likely scenario, but I was thinking China would just take over the whole fab complex fairly easily and we'd be beholden to their supply.

 

[OldShooter]

That's a good point and a likely scenario, but I was thinking China would just take over the whole fab complex fairly easily and we'd be beholden to their supply.

I'm sure that's what they would like, but I used to work in that industry. Fabs are incredibly delicate and complex machines. Serious contamination of the DI water system or physical damage to the steppers that print the images on the wafers would be easy to do and very time consuming to fix. An embargo of fab equipment and repair parts would contribute to the fun. There is also a lot of nasty stuff around like miscellaneous acids and arsine gas. It wouldn't take very many insurgent fab engineers and techs to hose things up for a very long time.

I worked at a fab where a delivery truck dumped into the wrong tank and ended up creating a chlorine cloud. Fortunately everyone was evacuated safely, but the chlorine ate the copper traces off printed circuit boards in people's desks in a 3-story building. The fab had its own air system, but insurgents could also choose to fill the fab with chlorine gas. If that happened it might never again produce a circuit.

 

[marko]

I'm sure that's what they would like, but I used to work in that industry. Fabs are incredibly delicate and complex machines. Serious contamination of the DI water system or physical damage to the steppers that print the images on the wafers would be easy to do and very time consuming to fix. An embargo of fab equipment and repair parts would contribute to the fun. There is also a lot of nasty stuff around like miscellaneous acids and arsine gas. It wouldn't take very many insurgent fab engineers and techs to hose things up for a very long time.

I worked at a fab where a delivery truck dumped into the wrong tank and ended up creating a chlorine cloud. Fortunately everyone was evacuated safely, but the chlorine ate the copper traces off printed circuit boards in people's desks in a 3-story building. The fab had its own air system, but insurgents could also choose to fill the fab with chlorine gas. If that happened it might never again produce a circuit.

You're right. But either way there'd be a huge chip shortage at least for us.

 

[OldShooter]

You're right. But either way there'd be a huge chip shortage at least for us.

Yes, of course. It would hurt us, but IMO it would hurt China more. We would have access to sources in the US, Korea, and other places. An issue though is that a chip is not a chip; there are many types and many manufacturing processes, so the devil would be in the details. My main point is that TSMC is economically critical to China and the risk of losing it is, hopefully, a deterrent to an attack.

 

[VFK57]

I think in that case, the Soviets were already in Hungary. They only quashed reforms by rolling into Budapest. But true that tanks were moved to squash an uprising.

If I remember correctly, Czechoslovakia was the only Soviet controlled communist country that didn’t have Soviet troops after WW2. That changed in 1968 after they invaded.

I served in Soviet Army 1976-1978. I was drafted at the age 19, T-64 tank training division. Most successfully finished 6-month training to be gunners, drivers or commanders were sent to East Germany first wave against NATO. Also to Poland for a 2nd wave of massive tank attacks against NATO. Yet Russia is not USSR and I would never see it in my wildest dream that there would be a Russia - Ukraine war and the city I was born and lived in for 1/2 of my life (Kyiv) will be surrounded and some buildings are bombed, streets are full of Ukrainian and possibly Russian soldiers and equipment. My friends and relatives told me that Ukrainian army was able to de block the encirclement in one direction. Just horrible.

 

[VFK57]

In regard to our equities, we are +3.1% but I am afraid that tomorrow it may dive below 0

 

[jollystomper]

Big problem for China, too, if they destroy the factories and/or end up with an insurgency that does it. I'm sure that is a major consideration for them

I doubt they would destroy anything, as they want those benefits. I think they would want to see thing move more along the line of Hong Kong. I think they will more likely do a strategy of continuing to intimidate/isolate Taiwan while trying to get more people sympathetic to increased relations with the mainland in key positions. When we were there 3 years ago we noticed several anti-government demonstrations around government corruption during our visit, with pro-China sympathy mixed in.

 

[kgtest]

These are the reasons I so enjoy this forum!

RIGHT!! The little miss muffet rhyme made me chuckle. Nice one JoeWras!

 

[aja8888]

I served in Soviet Army 1976-1978. I was drafted at the age 19, T-64 tank training division. Most successfully finished 6-month training to be gunners, drivers or commanders were sent to East Germany first wave against NATO. Also to Poland for a 2nd wave of massive tank attacks against NATO. Yet Russia is not USSR and I would never see it in my wildest dream that there would be a Russia - Ukraine war and the city I was born and lived in for 1/2 of my life (Kyiv) will be surrounded and some buildings are bombed, streets are full of Ukrainian and possibly Russian soldiers and equipment. My friends and relatives told me that Ukrainian army was able to de block the encirclement in one direction. Just horrible.

Yes, it's terrible what is going on and I am Lithuanian with relatives in Lithuania although I have been in this country my whole life. All it takes is one madman to cause all this horror. Let's hope for a quick solution.