We are entering a "Golden Period" for fixed income investing

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We have been through the bond fund wars quite a few times. All those threads ended up being closed down. If we want to discuss bonds versus funds I suggest we start a new thread rather than try to do that here.

This is a great thread but is best when discussing individual securities, in my view.
 
agreed I have learned a lot and appreciate all the different perspectives but unclear to me the difference between THIS thread and the "Treasury, Notes,....AND BONDS" thread. It looks like originally the latter was just for Treasuries, this thread is for CDs/MM deals, so do we need a new Bond "deals" thread?
If I don’t want to discuss something I just ignore it or don’t respond to it. Eventually every thread would get shut down if opinions were disallowed or someone objected to the opinion in question. I think these types of forums like everything has a weak link. In this case it’s a question of what is & what isn’t pertinent to a specific subject. If this was a discussion in a building or at someone’s house & I didn’t care for what was being said I’d walk away or change the conversation. But this is the internet & I really don’t understand the internet. It’s just something I’m trying to live with. Hoping the thread doesn’t get closed down. I hope the moderator realizes the vast majority want this thread to continue however flawed it may be.
 
It's a matter of time before Wells Fargo starts offering 6% interest CDs that pay monthly. At that point fixed income investing will become "no brainer" investing.

When that happens, I am filling the pot.:cool:
I'm just not sure I can hold it that long. :)


th
 
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agreed I have learned a lot and appreciate all the different perspectives but unclear to me the difference between THIS thread and the "Treasury, Notes,....AND BONDS" thread. It looks like originally the latter was just for Treasuries, this thread is for CDs/MM deals, so do we need a new Bond "deals" thread?


The other thread is concerned with treasury bonds (but not I bonds - there's a separate thread for that). This one mainly discusses corporates and GSEs. I certainly like the multiple focused threads.
 
This thread was started just over a year ago and followed warnings I made regarding the dangers bond funds in February 2022 on another thread.

June 18 -2022

"Earlier in the year, I stated that 2022 was going to be one of the best periods to create or add to a bond ladder. We are almost half way through the year and yields are moving up nicely and we are entering a period where savers can once again generate income without taking too much risk. The coupons for new CDs, treasuries, and high grade corporate notes are being issued at rates that we have not seen for over five years. In the secondary markets for short term corporate bonds/notes yields are increasing to levels not seen since March 2020 as bonds funds face redemptions. This trend will continue through the year until the Fed changes course. The distribution yields from bond funds are far too low relative to safer investments where there is no risk to capital, forcing passive bond funds into a "buy high" and "sell low" mode. This will continue until money starts flowing back into bond funds. This is unlikely to happen when even CDs and treasuries are yielding more than many bond funds."

"At this phase of rate hikes buy the highest coupon and shortest duration fixed income instruments. Don't go beyond five years at this point.

If you want to take zero risk buy CDs and treasuries and high grade corporate notes (A rated) when they are issued and always compare the yields. Keep in mind when you buy these types of instruments, you are paid the coupon and you capital is returned at maturity. Corporate notes from major banks in North America are the safest.

If you want better yields than what brokerage firms are offering, buy CDs, treasuries, and corporate notes on the secondary market using limit orders. Remember you have the upper hand in a rate hike cycle. For newly issued corporate notes, brokerage firms typically take 2% commission that is reflected in the coupon you are receiving. So many investors wait for new issues to hid the secondary market, when demand is weak or muted, and attempt to buy issues below par value. Brokerage firms normally don't want to hold inventory and will dump issues below par sacrificing some of their commission. The same is true for CDs. This is why you sometimes see your corporate note or CD drop below the price you paid. However at maturity your capital is returned at par. Your yield is fixed at the time you buy the CD, treasury, or corporate note and your capital is returned at maturity."


So here we are just over a year later, the overall trend has not changed. In fact, it's even better now for treasuries, CDs, and corporate notes. MM funds now yield about 5% so even cash earns income. Corporate notes from the major banks are still the safest and they remain the largest issuers of retail corporate notes.

This thread is about fixed income investing:

1- Earning income
2- Preserving and growing capital

Hopefully people who followed this thread understand that buying fixed income products is not some esoteric concept that requires deep thought and exhaustive research. Buying treasury's at auction is not that difficult. Corporate bonds are not that difficult to understand. Many companies are household names. You can adjust your portfolio duration as the yield curve changes (i.e riding the yield curve). Timing your purchases is part of a fixed income strategy. You can be selective with respect to yield. Understand well that we are entering a period where there is a generation shift in fixed income investing. Rates are likely to stay elevated for a long time. Get used to investing in this environment.
 
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Rates are likely to stay elevated for a long time. Get used to investing in this environment.
I certainly hope you are correct. I'm tired of fixed income rates being held artificially low.
 
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I read and post in a few different forums on the internet. This is one of the best fixed income/bond threads out there. Yes, there have been some salty comments and sniping between posters, and everyone should do their best to minimize that. However, seeing the moderator last week take down the thread was shocking to me. Yes, this site is run by early retirement, but we are the users that make this site have value. And in my opinion, for a moderator to take such an extreme step over a few sub-optimal comments was an over-step. Does this site allow moderators to suspend an account from posting for a day or few days? That is what other sites do when the discussion gets really out of hand.
 
Hopefully people who followed this thread understand that buying fixed income products is not some esoteric concept that requires deep thought and exhaustive research. t.

I'm one of those investors who felt that way. Not anymore. And and very grateful for the concise clear info on the general bond environment, relevant metrics, and actionable suggestions. I've found the discussion and Freedom56's information invaluable.

Including discussion on other bond vehicles, mutual funds/etfs. Entirely relevant to an investor considering an informed choice. The fact-based opinions are welcome.

I appreciate all the contributions, especially Freedom56. Thank you
 
Hoping the thread doesn’t get closed down. I hope the moderator realizes the vast majority want this thread to continue however flawed it may be.

However, seeing the moderator last week take down the thread was shocking to me. Yes, this site is run by early retirement, but we are the users that make this site have value. And in my opinion, for a moderator to take such an extreme step over a few sub-optimal comments was an over-step. Does this site allow moderators to suspend an account from posting for a day or few days? That is what other sites do when the discussion gets really out of hand.

We are a team of volunteer moderators, and will take various actions when warranted depending on the behaviors in question. We do not read every thread or every post, and rely on members to use the "report" function when they see actions that may require our attention.

All threads and members are expected to follow the community rules, which include avoiding questions of moderator decisions threads.

If you have specific questions, most can be answered here: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules
 
This thread was started just over a year ago and followed warnings I made regarding the dangers bond funds in February 2022 on another thread.

June 18 -2022

"Earlier in the year, I stated that 2022 was going to be one of the best periods to create or add to a bond ladder. We are almost half way through the year and yields are moving up nicely and we are entering a period where savers can once again generate income without taking too much risk. The coupons for new CDs, treasuries, and high grade corporate notes are being issued at rates that we have not seen for over five years. In the secondary markets for short term corporate bonds/notes yields are increasing to levels not seen since March 2020 as bonds funds face redemptions. This trend will continue through the year until the Fed changes course. The distribution yields from bond funds are far too low relative to safer investments where there is no risk to capital, forcing passive bond funds into a "buy high" and "sell low" mode. This will continue until money starts flowing back into bond funds. This is unlikely to happen when even CDs and treasuries are yielding more than many bond funds."

"At this phase of rate hikes buy the highest coupon and shortest duration fixed income instruments. Don't go beyond five years at this point.

If you want to take zero risk buy CDs and treasuries and high grade corporate notes (A rated) when they are issued and always compare the yields. Keep in mind when you buy these types of instruments, you are paid the coupon and you capital is returned at maturity. Corporate notes from major banks in North America are the safest.

If you want better yields than what brokerage firms are offering, buy CDs, treasuries, and corporate notes on the secondary market using limit orders. Remember you have the upper hand in a rate hike cycle. For newly issued corporate notes, brokerage firms typically take 2% commission that is reflected in the coupon you are receiving. So many investors wait for new issues to hid the secondary market, when demand is weak or muted, and attempt to buy issues below par value. Brokerage firms normally don't want to hold inventory and will dump issues below par sacrificing some of their commission. The same is true for CDs. This is why you sometimes see your corporate note or CD drop below the price you paid. However at maturity your capital is returned at par. Your yield is fixed at the time you buy the CD, treasury, or corporate note and your capital is returned at maturity."


So here we are just over a year later, the overall trend has not changed. In fact, it's even better now for treasuries, CDs, and corporate notes. MM funds now yield about 5% so even cash earns income. Corporate notes from the major banks are still the safest and they remain the largest issuers of retail corporate notes.

This thread is about fixed income investing:

1- Earning income
2- Preserving and growing capital

Hopefully people who followed this thread understand that buying fixed income products is not some esoteric concept that requires deep thought and exhaustive research. Buying treasuries at auction is not that difficult. Corporate bonds are not that difficult to understand. Many companies are household names. You can adjust your portfolio duration as the yield curve changes (i.e riding the yield curve). Timing your purchases is part of a fixed income strategy. You can be selective with respect to yield. Understand well that we are entering a period where there is a generation shift in fixed income investing. Rates are likely to stay elevated for a long time. Get used to investing in this environment.
As always I appreciate your efforts. Keep that in mind.
 
However, seeing the moderator last week take down the thread was shocking to me.

Taking a problematic thread offline temporarily while the mods confer and agree what posts need moderating or deleting is a common occurrence. No reason to be shocked.

I've been around a long time (tomorrow is my 21st anniversary of E-R.org membership) and I can only recall a handful of threads that were permanently deleted. Those typically involved privacy or legal issues.
 
We are a team of volunteer moderators, and will take various actions when warranted depending on the behaviors in question. We do not read every thread or every post, and rely on members to use the "report" function when they see actions that may require our attention.

All threads and members are expected to follow the community rules, which include avoiding questions of moderator decisions threads.

If you have specific questions, most can be answered here: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules
Right. And if anyone has questions or concerns about a thread, please contact any moderator by PM or use the post report function.

Taking a problematic thread offline temporarily while the mods confer and agree what posts need moderating or deleting is a common occurrence. No reason to be shocked.

I've been around a long time (tomorrow is my 21st anniversary of E-R.org membership) and I can only recall a handful of threads that were permanently deleted. Those typically involved privacy or legal issues.
Thanks, REWahoo. I’m reminded of an old saying in Spanish. “Más sabe el diablo por viejo que por diablo”. “ The devil knows so much not because he’s the devil but because he’s old.

This thread has received an unusually large number of member complaints, which the moderator team needs to deal with, and most are about bickering and arguing that gets disruptive and interferes. Members should consider limiting the discussion in this thread to information, details, purchases of specific corporate and agency bonds. Bond funds and alternatives for fixed income investing can (and should) have their own dedicated thread.
 
Was just thinking: during the mini-banking crisis in March, I completed my long ladder with 5% year CDs. At the time I thought about adding money to the ladder from the equity side. But then the opportunity left as the CDs dried up.

Now, if we do get CDs at 5.5+ for 5 years noncallable, I would definitely add to my debt allocation.

Not expecting that but was an interesting thought.
 
I read and post in a few different forums on the internet. This is one of the best fixed income/bond threads out there. Yes, there have been some salty comments and sniping between posters, and everyone should do their best to minimize that. However, seeing the moderator last week take down the thread was shocking to me. Yes, this site is run by early retirement, but we are the users that make this site have value. And in my opinion, for a moderator to take such an extreme step over a few sub-optimal comments was an over-step. Does this site allow moderators to suspend an account from posting for a day or few days? That is what other sites do when the discussion gets really out of hand.
I’ve been on this forum, and several other, for many years. And I can tell you this thread is the best moderated I’ve ever been a part of, I am grateful for the efforts of many moderators here over the years. I’ve been on other forums where users were granted too much ‘freedom of expression’ and that turns into a nightmare fast. Erring on the side of caution is wise IME. It’s a fine art to draw the lines well enough to keep the peace while facilitating discussion - and they draw those lines well here. I’ve had a couple posts taken down, but I don’t harbor any hard feelings, I understood the perceived issue. I even got a polite explanation from a mod once or twice, very helpful.

In my view, having a couple of posts take down is trivial. It’s not like any one or a few posts any of us make are crucial to any discussion.

Thanks again mods!
 
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From Barron's today. Since most are buying corporate notes from the large banks.

JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman May Lift Dividends After Stress Tests

"Now that banks have cleared the Federal Reserve’s stress tests, investors will be focused on which banks announce dividend increases Friday."


https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-bank-of-america-goldman-61da31c8?mod=hp_LEAD_5

The large banks led the rally today after the stress test, however the regional banks looked weak. The largest of the 23 banks subject to stress testing will likely see continued inflow of deposits.
 
Was just thinking: during the mini-banking crisis in March, I completed my long ladder with 5% year CDs. At the time I thought about adding money to the ladder from the equity side. But then the opportunity left as the CDs dried up.

Now, if we do get CDs at 5.5+ for 5 years noncallable, I would definitely add to my debt allocation.

Not expecting that but was an interesting thought.

I am not retired but still working and accumulating. I desire an early retirement. In past 2 years, we received some inheritance from my wife’s side. My wife is a not the financial type but simply does not want to lose “her daddy’s hard earned money”. So I have been using bonds, CDs and treasuries. And this thread is great.

As I work to figure out a true path to the ability to retire early, even if I don’t pull the trigger, the known return of these Fixed Income instruments is really appealing. I have been thinking hard about what is the rate that makes me go with a Fixed Income investment vs. more equities. At 4.5 to 5.0% I was adding some. At 5.5% to 6.0%, I don’t have a lot of incentive to take equity risk. I have a high savings rate/manage my budget carefully. Being able to better plan a known return of 5.5 to 6.0% will be tough to beat.
 
My favorite 3 FI threads are this one, treasury-bills-notes-and-bonds-discussion and the best-cd-mm-rates-and-bank-special-deals. I have learned a lot reading this thread even though it is probably the least actionable for me because I don't want to buy corporate bonds. The other 2 geared more to what I want and feel comfortable deciding whether to buy a T bill or a CD depending upon which account at Vanguard it is for and whether I like the duration of the various T bills or CDs both bought at auction not in the secondary market.

I think rates are going higher due to comments by Powell recently so I'm probably more likely to not go farther out than 3-6 months for now. I also think rates will remain higher for much longer than we thought a few months ago. It is amazing that we can actually get a decent return in FI for a change, last time that was the case I had little interest in FI but now I am very interested in FI to preserve principal keeping a lower AA to equities than in the past.
 
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I am not retired but still working and accumulating. I desire an early retirement. In past 2 years, we received some inheritance from my wife’s side. My wife is a not the financial type but simply does not want to lose “her daddy’s hard earned money”. So I have been using bonds, CDs and treasuries. And this thread is great.



As I work to figure out a true path to the ability to retire early, even if I don’t pull the trigger, the known return of these Fixed Income instruments is really appealing. I have been thinking hard about what is the rate that makes me go with a Fixed Income investment vs. more equities. At 4.5 to 5.0% I was adding some. At 5.5% to 6.0%, I don’t have a lot of incentive to take equity risk. I have a high savings rate/manage my budget carefully. Being able to better plan a known return of 5.5 to 6.0% will be tough to beat.
My thinking is similar. If we get 5.5-6.0 risk free as some are predicting I will add. That's equity-like returns with no risk.

But also likely to tank stocks. But such rates I would not expect to last.

Probably another strike while iron is hot situation.
 
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I'm one of those investors who felt that way. Not anymore. And and very grateful for the concise clear info on the general bond environment, relevant metrics, and actionable suggestions. I've found the discussion and Freedom56's information invaluable.

Including discussion on other bond vehicles, mutual funds/etfs. Entirely relevant to an investor considering an informed choice. The fact-based opinions are welcome.

I appreciate all the contributions, especially Freedom56. Thank you

Hear, hear.
 
My thinking is similar. If we get 5.5-6.0 risk free as some are predicting I will add. That's equity-like returns with no risk.

But also likely to tank stocks. But such rates I would not expect to last.

Probably another strike while iron is hot situation.

I've also been thinking about whether to move my stock/bond allocation more towards bonds if rates pop up a bit more. I've already got a more conversative allocation because of the bond tent theory that I've put into the portfolio.

However, monte carlo simulations showed me to be careful. The 7-10% returns from stocks are needed to secure the long-term withdrawal rates with high safety to last 30 years. There was no easy way to simulate a bond tent, so I wasn't able to figure out the exact percentages of stocks/bonds to move from and to and back over time.
 
I've also been thinking about whether to move my stock/bond allocation more towards bonds if rates pop up a bit more. I've already got a more conversative allocation because of the bond tent theory that I've put into the portfolio.

However, monte carlo simulations showed me to be careful. The 7-10% returns from stocks are needed to secure the long-term withdrawal rates with high safety to last 30 years. There was no easy way to simulate a bond tent, so I wasn't able to figure out the exact percentages of stocks/bonds to move from and to and back over time.

FIcalc allows you to change allocations over time with Monte Carlo analysis.
https://ficalc.app/
You can simulate a Kitces’ bond tent strategy.
 
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