What about self-driving trucks?

[Midpack]

Ask a telephone operator.
Or a telephone installer! Remember when they used to check your lines to make sure you didn't install any phones on your own?
TV repairman anyone?
Gas station attendants?
Milkmen?

My point is, jobs change, people move on and find other jobs, retire.

Not the exact person of course, but new jobs and skills emerge:
Did the telephone operator become a call center worker?
Does the phone installer now install data lines and smoke detectors for an electrician?
Is the TV repairman now an HVAC repairman?
Are the gas station attendants and millkmen now working for UPS?

Believe me, I hope you're right, and that has indeed worked historically - amazingly well.

But it seems the rate of change is getting faster and faster, and will people be able to adapt skill wise fast enough? The transition from farmer to factory worker happened over generations. The transition from factory worker to software coding has happened within a generation, and the skills training is more difficult. If careers become obsolete within 10 years, can people-skills keep up?

Has our education system kept up? Can it? Can teachers evolve fast enough? I'd say they haven't so far...

 

[HFWR]

I made a whopping $1.25/hr pumping gas at a Sunoco station, summer of 1971.

 

[NW-Bound]

First steps Self-driving trucks will hit the road in Ohio - CBS News

But a long, long way to go.

Last year, there was a truck manufacturer (forgot who that was) that announced a self-driving semi-trailer for the freeway or highway. The driver has to be at the wheel and ready to take over, like the Tesla car now. It is said that it still helped by relieving the stress for the driver, and he is only needed when going into town.

The above is not too different than autopilots for airplanes. Not all planes have an autopilot with autoland capabilities. Many have cruise autopilots only.

Back on the trucks, eventually when trucks can be driverless on freeways, it is still useful. Many distribution centers are on the outskirts of towns, and driverless trucks do not have to go further than that.

Or a driverless truck can get to a truck stop, where a driver can hop onboard and take it into town.

Who knows, maybe one day when your car rolls off an assembly line, it'll come to your house without any driver, truck or train - unless its made in Europe/Asia.

That foreign-made car can drive itself from the car factory to the dock, and pack itself in for the transoceanic trip. It can then drive itself from the US port to your home. You may not like it though if it arrives dirty, so it may stop at a prep station to be washed first.

The possibilities are endless, once the technology is widespread.

Self driving delivery trucks - the parcel trucks, would still need a person in them unless a robot arm chucking packages into the front yard became acceptable .

In the same way, humans have to be involved at the loading/unloading docks. Amazon has a lot of automation at its order fulfillment centers, and uses robots to go fetch containers where the stuff is stored. Humans are still involved in putting the stuff into the bins, and to retrieve it.

 

[jazz4cash]

In this country two or three trailers is the most you generally see, but in Australia they do it differently.........

So if you can't get full driverless automation, it is possible to reduce the man-hrs/payload with existing technology.

 

[Midpack]

In this country two or three trailers is the most you generally see, but in Australia they do it differently.........

So if you can't get full driverless automation, it is possible to reduce the man-hrs/payload with existing technology.

Maybe, but most truck freight is limited to triples in Australia, like the USA, Canada & Mexico where triples are allowed on some highways. In AUS, serious roadtrains up to 176 ft are only permitted on the Stuart Highway and Olympic Dam Highway in the Far North in the Australian Outback regions. Does the US, Canada or Mexico have an equivalent to the Outback, where traffic is almost nil? Just so happens I live near one of the few US roads where triples are common.

And ironically, those Outback road trains would be the among the easiest routes for driverless autonomous trucks, as long as they stop as designated.

 

[Walt34]

Got a reference for that? From what I remember, pumping gas in the 60's & 70's (I was too young to pay attention to such things in the 50's) was the equivalent, maybe less than a 'flippin' burgers' job. High school kids, part timers, etc. They did get tips sometimes.

-ERD50

Yes, personal experience. A guy I worked with in high school in the late 1960's at a gas station pumping gas owned his house and had a daughter in her early teens. I don't remember if he was married, widowed, divorced, etc. It certainly would have been a tight budget but clearly he was managing.

The minimum wage at the time was $1.25/hour and had more purchasing power than today's minimum wage. Not to mention that expenses considered "necessary" now like cell phones, Internet, cable TV, simply didn't exist.

 

[Totoro]

In this country two or three trailers is the most you generally see, but in Australia they do it differently.........

All that one on just that one truck engine in front?

 

[MRG]

All that one on just that one truck engine in front?

Once you get it moving no problem.

 

[HFWR]

Once you get it moving no problem.

Until you need to stop...

 

[ERD50]

All that one on just that one truck engine in front?

Once you get it moving no problem.

As part of a thought experiment I had while thinking about serial hybrids, I did a simple first-order approximation of how much horsepower my car would need if I accepted the same acceleration level as a fully loaded semi truck (which really take a while to get going through all those gears). My numbers look like this:

        HP	    #	#/HP		
SEMI	560	80000	143		
My Car	138	 3237	 23		
RATIO of #/HP            6.1	

  [B]22.7[/B]  < ~ HP I would need to accel like a semi....

I know it's more complicated than that, torque curves, gear ratios, etc, but probably within a factor of 2? And 23 HP seems to be right about in the range of what's required to maintain a car at highway speeds, so that fits.

-ERD50

 

[MRG]

Until you need to stop...

Most of the braking is from the trailers.
I've been out of the big trucks since the '80s but. We used to disconnect the front brakes on log trucks. They don't do much to slow down the truck, but they sure can cause issues.

 

[tinlizzy]

In this country two or three trailers is the most you generally see, but in Australia they do it differently.........

So if you can't get full driverless automation, it is possible to reduce the man-hrs/payload with existing technology.

This seems redundant to use in the US. It's a train on the road.

 

[bUU]

Roads go many places that maintained train tracks don't.

 

[tinlizzy]

Roads go many places that maintained train tracks don't.

Not with that many cars attached in a row. It couldn't turn a corner.

 

[bUU]

Sure seems like they're turning a corner in that photo.

 

[tinlizzy]

Sure seems like they're turning a corner in that photo.

That road is 4 widths of that truck. You could not post a picture of a road that wide with a gentle curve instead of a 90° turn leading into anywhere commercial in the US. The trailers on that vehicle would begin to straighten out and finish in the furthest opposite lane.

That is a train on a road and may be appropriate for Australia but we have an extensive railway system in the US that already transports the majority of all freight and it would be redundant.

And would it be the taxpayers who would fund the cost of all the wear and tear on the roads if rail freight were transferred to roads?

 

[meierlde]

Maybe, but most truck freight is limited to triples in Australia, like the USA, Canada & Mexico where triples are allowed on some highways. In AUS, serious roadtrains up to 176 ft are only permitted on the Stuart Highway and Olympic Dam Highway in the Far North in the Australian Outback regions. Does the US, Canada or Mexico have an equivalent to the Outback, where traffic is almost nil? Just so happens I live near one of the few US roads where triples are common.

And ironically, those Outback road trains would be the among the easiest routes for driverless autonomous trucks, as long as they stop as designated.

For areas like the Outback, Nevada north of Clark County (US 50 the loneliest road in the US, US 95 and 95 etc. (Except for I 80) Add Eastern OR and western Utah that is essentially the Outback in the lower 48.

 

[bUU]

The trailers on that vehicle would begin to straighten out and finish in the furthest opposite lane.

How do you know that?

 

[bUU]

For areas like the Outback, Nevada north of Clark County (US 50 the loneliest road in the US, US 95 and 95 etc. (Except for I 80) Add Eastern OR and western Utah that is essentially the Outback in the lower 48.

It's also important to keep in mind that even on the highways there are logical places for advanced capabilities. While​ a lot of truck traffic is point to point, still other truck traffic is from trans-shipment point to trans-shipment point... And trans-shipment points in the United States are not completely Random. There are a few spots where they congregate typically because they are areas outside the high cost metropolitan area but able to serve trans-shipment needs for metropolitan areas. For example, Swedesboro NJ. This kind of capability perhaps need not be utilized highways but instead could perhaps be focused on certain highways adapted for that purpose, highways that connect these trans-shipment points together.

 

[meierlde]

It's also important to keep in mind that even on the highways there are logical places for advanced capabilities. While​ a lot of truck traffic is point to point, still other truck traffic is from trans-shipment point to trans-shipment point... And trans-shipment points in the United States are not completely Random. There are a few spots where they congregate typically because they are areas outside the high cost metropolitan area but able to serve trans-shipment needs for metropolitan areas. For example, Swedesboro NJ. This kind of capability perhaps need not be utilized highways but instead could perhaps be focused on certain highways adapted for that purpose, highways that connect these trans-shipment points together.

Actually you see these locations as places where intermodal terminals are located. For example south of Dallas you find an intermodal terminal where containers are moved from rail to trucks for local delivery. I suspect you would find the same thing in other locations. Of course this is not a new idea. It just used to be the railroad depot where cars would be unloaded to horse drawn wagons for the final stretch.

 

[bUU]

And the fact that trans-shipment happens primarily on those routes can be exploited to concentrate whatever modifications needed to highways to support such traffic (if there really are any needed) on those routes.

 

[HFWR]

Elon Musk says Tesla will reveal a semi truck in September
http://www.cnbc.com/id/104388257

 

[calmloki]

A friend was down making his maiden voyage in a new Tiffin Class A 36' motorhome - with his King cab long bed truck in tow. About 60' of tall wide terror to run down the highway in. Struck me that autonomous driving capability would be perfect for that type rig. Not like it was headed off road or down any ill-marked byways.

 

[jazz4cash]

A friend was down making his maiden voyage in a new Tiffin Class A 36' motorhome - with his King cab long bed truck in tow. About 60' of tall wide terror to run down the highway in. Struck me that autonomous driving capability would be perfect for that type rig. Not like it was headed off road or down any ill-marked byways.

That would be interesting to see how the lead vehicle would detect the tow vehicle was clear of adjacent obstacles when turning or changing lanes.

 

[OldShooter]

Something not mentioned yet that is important:

Truck movement right now is limited by driver rest requirements. Autonomous trucks will have no such limit, so they can be running close to 24 hours/day. This means that transit times will drop by as much as half. This means that the total goods inventory tied up the road will also drop by almost half, freeing up a significant amount of capital. Also, the improved transit times will eat into the air freight market, as the range for "next day" and "second day" truck delivery will come close to doubling. A significantly smaller number of trucks will be needed, improving traffic conditions. So in addition to driver wage savings, there is quite a line of economic dominoes that will fall as a result of this inevitable change. The low-hanging fruit of easy, point-to-point routes will be automated first, then more complex routes.