retire2020
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 459
It's strange what I see with Firecalc... Two identical scenario with different years(40 vs 50 years of payout) analyzed for 100% success rate to withdraw 120K/year. 50 years period require less portfolio amount, 3.194M vs 3.318M for 40 years...Would not 50 yrs payout period require higher portfolio amount? Is something wrong with Firecalc or I'm making a mistake somewhere?
Spending: 120K
Portfolio: 3M
Years: 40 and then 50
I'm putting 30K/yr Social Security Income starting year 2031
Then go to Investigate tab and choose 2nd from bottom option -- 100% success rate and click on 'starting portfolio value' and hit the 'submit' button
All other parameters are left at 'default' in Firecalc
40 years period says:
FIRECalc Results
Looking for a portfolio value that will result in 100% success rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [done]
A starting portfolio of $3,318,054 provided a success rate of 100.0% (101 total cycles, of which 0 failed).
The highest residual portfolio was $45,953,181. The lowest was $-505, and the average was $11,265,945.
Here is a plot of the success rate of this portfolio value (in the center) and a few that are smaller and larger. The vertical axis shows the success rate.
50 years period says:
FIRECalc Results
Looking for a portfolio value that will result in 100% success rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [done]
A starting portfolio of $3,194,722 provided a success rate of 100.0% (91 total cycles, of which 0 failed).
The highest residual portfolio was $62,333,409. The lowest was $4,042, and the average was $17,223,182.
Here is a plot of the success rate of this portfolio value (in the center) and a few that are smaller and larger. The vertical axis shows the success rate.
Spending: 120K
Portfolio: 3M
Years: 40 and then 50
I'm putting 30K/yr Social Security Income starting year 2031
Then go to Investigate tab and choose 2nd from bottom option -- 100% success rate and click on 'starting portfolio value' and hit the 'submit' button
All other parameters are left at 'default' in Firecalc
40 years period says:
FIRECalc Results
Looking for a portfolio value that will result in 100% success rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [done]
A starting portfolio of $3,318,054 provided a success rate of 100.0% (101 total cycles, of which 0 failed).
The highest residual portfolio was $45,953,181. The lowest was $-505, and the average was $11,265,945.
Here is a plot of the success rate of this portfolio value (in the center) and a few that are smaller and larger. The vertical axis shows the success rate.
50 years period says:
FIRECalc Results
Looking for a portfolio value that will result in 100% success rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [done]
A starting portfolio of $3,194,722 provided a success rate of 100.0% (91 total cycles, of which 0 failed).
The highest residual portfolio was $62,333,409. The lowest was $4,042, and the average was $17,223,182.
Here is a plot of the success rate of this portfolio value (in the center) and a few that are smaller and larger. The vertical axis shows the success rate.
Last edited: