What SWR% would you suggest?

[Spanky]

"beast with eight legs" - spider woman?

 

[Alan]

"beast with eight legs" - spider woman?

 

[kcowan]

...He said that he was blessed that he and his wife had remained happily married for 25 years and raised 2 daughters. Even with weddings, college fees etc, he attributed his wealth and ability to retire early due to his strong marriage.

I was happily married for 15 years and helped to raise 2 sons. Unfortunately the next ten years were not good and we separated after 25 years. That delayed my retirement by 5 years. The alimony ends July 1 this year after 12 years. Been ERd for nearly 5 years.

 

[Gone4Good]

This is an underappreciated fact. I wonder how many of us would be shot right out of the saddle by a divorce? And which is statistically more likely in America, a divorce or a 15 year grinding stagflationary bear market?

The nice thing about a 3% WR is that it probably survives divorce too.

Half the assets and a 33% increase in individual expenses gets you back to a 4% WR.

 

[Mwsinron]

"beast with eight legs" - spider woman?

You eat them with butter and lemon...

 

[walkinwood]

There are two papers that I think are required reading for all of us who are planning ER. A lot of you are probably familiar with them (since I found them in posts on this site)

http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2004_Issues/jfp1004-art6.cfm
http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2005_issues/jfp0605-art7.cfm

Even if you don't buy into the arguments presented, they are thought provoking.

If we can't model the future based on past experience, then all bets are off! We can then just as imagine a scenario with 20% declines in the stock market forever! Oh, and add declining dividends & double digit inflation.

Respectfully,
ww

 

[SecondCor521]

Sgeeeee,

I posted this below last month. Assuming what I did in excel was accurate, I came up with a 3% SWR eventually failing without a truly drastic scenario, though it took 45 years, and not factoring in any Social Security. From this I would say 3% looks almost fool-proof. The different opinions were interesting, and I was glad to see that not everyone believes 4% is the lowest SWR. How did I come up with 2%? For now, that is pretty close to the dividend yield, so even if the market's gains only keep pace with inflation, one could live off the dividends in real terms and not lose any buying power over the long haul.
...
I was playing around in excel, and obviously this is nowhere near as complicated or robust as others have come up with in their models, but this is what I found:
...

You're basically doing a crude model of what Firecalc does, but with worse assumptions. I prefer to assume that the future is going to be no worse than the past, so I am using a 4% SWR.

2Cor521