When to buyback?

Just to be clear, I'm not judging anyone's reactions or actions. I participate here precisely because I value the expertise.

Just looking for any hopeful sign I suppose.
 
If you accept that fact that no one knows the future, a lot of these questions go away. The gloom and doomers might be right; the optimists might be right. For every downturn there have always been plenty of each. Eventually the rear-view mirror reveals who was correct.
 
Good place to get different viewpoints. IMO we just don’t know enough today, about the virus, how many are infected, how long to expect the fear. This is feeding into layoffs, staying at home that slows spending, slows the economy, which is feeding market news and market fear.
I don’t want to judge those with different opinions either. If I gave that impression my bad. But I do choose those I pay more attention to. ;-)
 
If it gets so bad that we are not getting near a buyback point in the next few months, I worry that society and government will change quite a bit. We may not enjoy the freedoms we once did or we might not be able to keep all of our assets which we thought were safe from the tax man.

It isn't a reason to go into stocks, but I do wonder what will happen with 20% unemployment and bankrupt cities and states, how they might start eyeing all assets.
 
In the beginning, I thought we would soon be at a "good point" to move to higher equities. As we go further though, and with IMO, the sensationalism, 24 hr news cycle, and rush to almost 100% shut down the economy, I am now worried this is going to get much worse. I won't make any allocation changes (now thanks to drops about 55/45), and I sure hope I am wrong about the above statements. Again, just my opinions and not trying to stir the pot.
 
Why are people evaluating the S&P as a good deal based on % off highs? Oh it's down 40% or whatever so it's a good buy. There is no guarantee we EVER get back to those levels in our lifetimes. A better guess would be to base it off the last crash which was 2008. This will be worse than 2008 in terms of the run on affect so we must base worst case on multiiples of the S&P low of 667. So I think 400-600 is where S&P is headed.
 
Well, Microsoft is the largest holding in the S&P500 at 5%.

So if it drops from 2300 to 400, that would mean something like Microsoft has dropped from $135 a share to $23.50 per share.

Microsoft has over $17 per share in cash.

I just don't see the larger holdings of the S&P500 dropping by enough to get you anywhere close to 400 on the index.
 
accountingsucks said:
Why are people evaluating the S&P as a good deal based on % off highs? Oh it's down 40% or whatever so it's a good buy. There is no guarantee we EVER get back to those levels in our lifetimes. A better guess would be to base it off the last crash which was 2008. This will be worse than 2008 in terms of the run on affect so we must base worst case on multiiples of the S&P low of 667. So I think 400-600 is where S&P is headed.
Click to expand...

Ok, now I am starting to feel a little optimistic.
 
ERD50 said:
While I don't believe in market timing, what's done is done. You did the first step. It wasn't exactly clear when you got out, but if you sidestepped ~ 35% of the loss, well in my view, you hit the jackpot already.



-ERD50
Click to expand...


I looked at my retirement balance in January and realized it was bigger than when I retired a year earlier. Got me to thinking how much it went up over the last few years. Then that quote about pigs getting burned and bam I pulled the trigger...
 
While telling our stories, I sold 1/2 of our AAPL in Jan for same reason, pigs get slaughtered. Happy to have made a profit. However, kept my BA, so not very smart on my behalf. :cool:
 
Fermion said:
Well, Microsoft is the largest holding in the S&P500 at 5%.

So if it drops from 2300 to 400, that would mean something like Microsoft has dropped from $135 a share to $23.50 per share.

Microsoft has over $17 per share in cash.

I just don't see the larger holdings of the S&P500 dropping by enough to get you anywhere close to 400 on the index.
Click to expand...

in 2015 Microsoft held 96 Billion in cash and had a total of 34 billion of debt

Today Microsoft has 134 billion in cash but 70 billion in debt. If they paid down debt to 2015 level the debt to cash would be equal - in 2015 Microsoft sold for $40, not expecting 400 but 1300 myself. But with announcement that FED is going to make another 4 trillion available as loans to corporations on top of 2 trillion of fiscal stimulus which is on top of the 2 trillion of liquidity and 1 trillion of fiscal stimulus already announced, we will soon find out if the FED can just print us to prosperity and a new stock market high. The total amount announced as relief exceeds the total debt of the US in 2007, and was given a couple weeks of thought.
 
Last edited:
audreyh1 said:
I think he had his own employees or business contacts in Europe that got him the real news directly faster. Didn’t have to rely on the government. And he didn’t share it?
Click to expand...

I always liked the messenger pigeon story best---- True or not.
Wikipedia:
It is also very commonly reported that the Rothschilds' advanced information was caused by the speed of prized racing pigeons, held by the family.[18][19][20] However, this is widely disputed and the Rothschild archive states that, although pigeon post "was one of the tools of success in the Rothschild business strategy during the period c. 1820–1850,... it is likely that a series of couriers on horseback brought the news" of Waterloo to Rothschild
 
statsman said:
I understand the part about the MM insurance limit. But I must be missing something. For the MM mutual funds people have suggested (VMFXX, SPAXX, SNSXX), I don't see anything on the websites indicating these funds are insured. I only see the "you could lose money" statement.
Click to expand...
There is no insurance for losses on a MM mutual fund.
 
intent said:
Just to be clear, I'm not judging anyone's reactions or actions. I participate here precisely because I value the expertise.

Just looking for any hopeful sign I suppose.
Click to expand...
For me bottoms take time. This has all been very fast. 2008 - it took 8 months to go from peak to 20% down. 2020 it took less that a month. I don’t think we are even done panicking yet. But what do I know?
 
Everyone is looking for some sign of hope. When we see it we'll know where the bottom was.

Nurses still don't have enough masks & gloves, not to mention test kits. We won't have enough hospital beds and ventilator machines. I haven't heard of any local deaths here yet. So, we're still "watching previews" as far as this show is concerned.

But to be optimistic, I have some losses to harvest and might roll it into another fund and/or a stock I've been eyeing.
 
I have been watching the growth equity fund that I exited 2 weeks ago, at a still decent price. It has suffered even more losses, and hasn't put 2 gaining days together yet. I think there is little hope for a recovery right now going into a 14 day quarantine, but things might seem better afterwards when rising consumer confidence will allow people to re-enter the market.

Once this Covid19 scare is past us, the market will rebound exponentially with aggressive investors trying to recoup losses.
 
brewer12345 said:
I use Schwab, so SNSXX. Look on your broker's website for a treasury only fund.
Click to expand...

audreyh1 said:
There is no insurance for losses on a MM mutual fund.
Click to expand...
I'd open a treasury direct account. It's easy to do and to set-up a transfer with your bank or broker. You then just participate in the next auction. You don't have to bid...you get whatever it ends up being.
 
sengsational said:
I'd open a treasury direct account. It's easy to do and to set-up a transfer with your bank or broker. You then just participate in the next auction. You don't have to bid...you get whatever it ends up being.
Click to expand...
No reason to do that. Schwab and Fido, probably any broker, can buy on the auction for you. IIRC Schwab's fee is a trivial $25.
 
sengsational said:
I'd open a treasury direct account. It's easy to do and to set-up a transfer with your bank or broker. You then just participate in the next auction. You don't have to bid...you get whatever it ends up being.
Click to expand...
You would do this because you’d be concerned that a treasury only MM fund might break the buck? Or because of the MM fund expense ratio?

I’ve bought new issue treasuries through Fidelity for which there is no fee. They even have a slick auto-rollover program. For a short while treasuries were paying more than bank high yield savings accounts, but it didn’t last long.
 
Treasury Direct would be just so all eggs were not in the same basket, but I'll admit that convenience of having Fidelity, Schwab, et al do it for free is a fine choice.
 
A fools errand

If you sold all equities due to fear of a crash, you deserve the pain of sitting on the sidelines wondering when to “ get back in”, and the lost bounce you’ll miss as you procrastinate.
Market timing, which is exactly what this is, is a fools errand.
 
I dunno. Someone who was heavy in tech in 1999 could have sold and waited 14 years or so and still been better off.

Whether people hold or sell, I can respect everyone’s decision. For me it was clear to start selling back In Early February. And I have zero issue with spotting value at a low point. I was buying a ton of fix and flips in 2008-2010
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Tranquility Base
Second Brokerage Account As a Substitute for Savings Account
Replies
17
Views
762
Sojourner
Sojourner
T
Selling stocks to buy house
Replies
19
Views
542
Sunset
Sunset
M
Investing extra money and possible recession 2024
Replies
6
Views
1K
DrRoy
DrRoy
Tranquility Base
When to Sell Positions With Unrealized Gains
2
Replies
38
Views
2K
TheWizard
TheWizard
M
Setting income level using Roth conversions to qualify for ACA?
2
Replies
25
Views
2K
aaronc879
A

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom