Who do you trust?

[imoldernu]

From this particular article perspective. Is it fake news, or is there something really happening on August 1st? That is very close.

Hmmm... yeah... gets a little deep, but involves the 2003 SEC rule 10B-18 and tangentially, major corporations like Mobil, GE, Apple as well as all Pharma. Current cautionary "feeler" legislation points to some government concern, but offers for public comment are going unanswered, my guess because of the extraordinary complexity of the reversal of SEC controls of investment rules initiated in 1932, to temper the possibility of the above mentioned Armageddon.
While it doesn't seem clear (to me at least) that there would be any calendar date associated with this, there are an increasing number of financial articles pointing up the rapidly increasing concentration of wealth.

You are probably right about questioning the Aug 1 date, but it does seem that a lot of "fake news" has a way of becoming reality.

Think share buy-back. Found this blog from lexology that touches on the issue.

Mayer Brown LLP logo
USA July 2 2018
As we discussed in a prior post, Commissioner Jackson has spoken out on transactions undertaken by public company executives in close proximity to their companies’ stock buybacks. In his speech, Commissioner Jackson called for public comment on the safe harbor provided by Rule 10b-18 for issuer repurchases. Recently, a group of senators sent a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting that the Commission open a public comment period on Rule 10b-18. That letter may be accessed here. The letter, like the Commissioner’s comments, appears to conflate the appropriateness of transactions by insiders and the timing of such transactions with the separate issue of stock repurchases conducted in compliance with the safe harbor. It is not clear why the safe harbor for stock repurchases ought to be related to or conditioned on insider sales/purchases.

and... a little more here:
https://baldwin.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Senators%20Letter%20to%20Clayton%20on%20Buyback%20Rules%20FINAL.SIGNED.6.28.18.pdf

 

[97guns]

I can’t ignore it, I’ve been prepared for some kind of monetary problem since 2009/10 when I started stashing savings away in gold, silver and platinum, nothing may ever materialize and they may literally print into eternity or things could get very ugly like we’ve seen other countries go through, if I remember right... people of Cyprus woke up one morning and couldn’t acces their bank accounts, if I’m recalling correctly they had a currency reset and lost 60% of their value, not something I’m willing to lose, that would probably force me back to work

 

[97guns]

I had to look it up again:


The Cypriot pound was replaced by the euro as official currency of the Republic of Cyprus on 1 January 2008 at the irrevocable fixed exchange rate of 0.585274 CYP per 1 euro

 

[97guns]

With precious metals you are essentially your own Central Bank

 

[braumeister]

people of Cyprus woke up one morning and couldn’t acces their bank accounts, if I’m recalling correctly they had a currency reset and lost 60% of their value

I guess we just ignore the fact that they had known this for six months beforehand?

 

[97guns]

I asked myself this question... why are all the Central Banks ratcheting up their gold holdings? If they’re buying then so should i

 

[LOL!]

From this particular article perspective. Is it fake news, or is there something really happening on August 1st? That is very close.

FOMC meeting without a press conference. Nothing is supposed to happen.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2018-august.htm

The September meeting is when another FFR hike is expected to happen.

 

[97guns]

Iceland and Greece had gone through the same thing, its something I can not ignore

 

[brett]

We took our time and shopped for a fee for service adviser that we are both comfortable with. We take time to review our annual and longer term results against what we consider to be best in class based on our mix.

We tend to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

We read the financial pages but realize that by the time the news hits the broadsheets, the web, or other media the train has probably left the station as it were. More than once our advice has been counter to what we have read and our results satisfactory.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Yeah, Michael... and I know you're right, because of what we've seen. Still, I'm haunted by memories of a best friend who retired in 2007, with about $800K in investments. A scary thing when it went to $400K+ in a flash. Of course it recovered, and he was okay, but a heartstopper.

That's the key right there. Every crash we've had, the market has been back up past its peak after 5-7 years. That can seem like a long time when you're living through it, but if you have 5-10 years of income in safer investments, as a lot of people talk about doing here, you can certainly tough it out and wait to draw down on the depreciated stock. Personally, I was doing considerably better off by the end of 2009 than before the crash.

If there's a worse crash than ever before, sure, I might have to tighten my belt, but if the markets bottom out never to recover, that means the US economy is dead, kaput, done, and I think we'll have more to worry about than our IRAs.

 

[Dash man]

The market will crash, but it might triple before then. Nobody can predict when things will happen or what the trigger will be. They also can’t predict if it will be a long term or short term event. Stay diversified and have enough cash to see you through for a while. You’ll be fine.

 

[racy]

... Breaking news every day, with gloom and doom facing off with giddy excitement....:

Way back when, there used to be News Departments. It all went to h*ll when they were subsumed into the Entertainment department.
So, I tune-in for the entertainment, but don't expect to get much news.

 

[Denverite]

Print off that Banyan Hill article, so you can look at it on August 2, and then never again believe a hyped-up story like that.


I can look at CNBC every day and see at least one "expert" calling for an imminent crash, while another sees "Dow 40,000 by the end of the year" or whatever. I just try to average them out.

Yes, exactly. Then in August you'll see another headline that Armageddon has been postponed to October 1. But it is still equally serious and you should take action now by buying our gold investment plan.

I think many of the more sensational investment headlines are written not because the "expert" actually believes it but because they are effective click bait. There is always a population of people who are drawn to dramatic doom and gloom copy.

 

[joeea]

My own inclination is to cash out my savings accounts and buy gold.

Resist that inclination.

Ignore the headlines.

Instead, educate yourself. Read here and at other forums. Read a few books. Perhaps spend a few hours with a fee-only fiduciary financial adviser.

Then put yourself in a position to trust yourself.

 

[DatumPoint5]

I trust most everything I read at Vanguard when I Google "Vanguard economic outlook" Over the years, they have proven to have a fair and balanced approach to their forecasts.

All of their articles are presented in an orderly and fair approach. They currently have their 2018 forecast online.

Google "Vanguard economic outlook 2018"
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGVEMO.pdf

 

[97guns]

Russia dumping treasuries

https://youtu.be/v-o_WxYSl6o

 

[Aerides]

Russia dumping treasuries

^
Is that an ironic attempt of "who not to trust" - because golly gee, a you tube video by an "indie" reporter and author fellow with 4000 twitter followers, wow yeah sign me up. (if you can't read the sarcasm, because...internet...)

Un-sourced, uncorroborated drivel - perfect example. It's easy to spot the mis-information if you take some time to curate your sources.

 

[Dtail]

Yeah, Michael... and I know you're right, because of what we've seen. Still, I'm haunted by memories of a best friend who retired in 2007, with about $800K in investments. A scary thing when it went to $400K+ in a flash. Of course it recovered, and he was okay, but a heartstopper.

Here's the headline article that prompted the thought.

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/?z=977296

It all sounds so real... I've been watching bitcoin, and Netflix and Google... shocker headlines and fluctuations, and predictions. Good and bad.

Am thinking it really is time to up the Prozac and turn off the TV. Back to Woodhaven to work on the seawall, and maybe to up the 1 and 1/2 oz. four o'clock martini to 2 ounces. Prosit!!!

There are people always predicting crashes and eventually they are correct, but no one talks about all the times they are wrong. Ron Paul predicts a crash every year. Even a broken clock......
As for your best friend, did he tell you what he was invested in at that time?
The typical 2008 loss was not 50% especially for folks in retirement with a 40-70% stock allocation.

 

[pb4uski]

Russia dumping treasuries

https://youtu.be/v-o_WxYSl6o

Let's get real. Russia could dump every treasury bond that they hold and it would be a total non-event.

They hold less than $50 billion of $20 trillion outstanding.

 

[MichaelB]

Russia dumping treasuries

https://youtu.be/v-o_WxYSl6o

What do you hope to accomplish with this post? It’s an unexplained link with a misleading lede by you and no context. The narrative in the link is fear-mongering nonsense.

I’ll add this. In March the US Treasury announced new sanctions against Russia. They might lead to difficulties in trading US Treasuries by some Russian individuals and institutions, so Russian holdings in those were reduced in April and May.

So, just to be clear, actions taken by the US Treasury forced this to happen.

This is not news, has no impact on interest rates or Treasury bond prices, and really no relevance to the Treasuries market, which continues to be the most liquid bond market in the world. It also has no impact on exchange rates.

Edit to add - this is exactly the type of link referenced in the OP. Caveat Emptor.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I think what we are getting to is a scenario that.... "If you talk about it long enough, it WILL happen". So many pundits and respected people talking about "The Big Collapse of 2018-2019". Unbelievable how many articles and videos on the subject. Some by very respected financial folks.

 

[MichaelB]

Let's get real. Russia could dump every treasury bond that they hold and it would be a total non-event.

They hold less than $50 billion of $20 trillion outstanding.

It’s not just the amount, which, as you point out, is trivial to the total. The whole idea that this is a strategy initiated by Russia is false. Bogus. The added suggestion that this is part of a some greater move away from the US$ is not only incorrect, it’s foolish. The exact opposite is happening. Just look at the data.

That link, like the stuff in the OP, is a clear example of the stuff people need to avoid. It’s called analysis but is little more than fear mongering.

 

[Oz investor]

i take notice of the 'noise ' will it move the market ( or stock ) ??
can i take advantage of the movement ( ie buy the dip or sell the rally ) if not , there is plenty more stuff to research .

PS in the short term , truth or fiction doesn't matter to me only the movement that i can utilize ( or choose not to exploit )

 

[97guns]

Sorry if my posts are viewed as fear mongering, please disregard my postings and I will excuse myself from this thread

 

[MichaelB]

Sorry if my posts are viewed as fear mongering, please disregard my postings and I will excuse myself from this thread

No need to leave the discussion, you're welcome to continue participating.

If anyone is going to present unorthodox views regarding macroeconomic events, it's very helpful to provide context and share the reasoning - that's what makes them valuable to the rest of us. It also is needed if we are to validate and assess their potential impact - how they affect us and whether or not we should act. or react.