haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1FQ
This graph shows just how low starts are, even with a much larger population in the USA than earlier. I read not to worry, it will come. Maybe, but when? Also, what is going on? Is it affordability, changes in preferences of the relevant demographic, changes in the demographic profile of US residents, or other factors?
New SFHs in old cities pretty much means that one must accept one of the very tall narrow buildings that are common infill units in city neighborhoods where old structures are torn down or drive a very long way into far suburbs or exurbs. Many cities have many freeways coming in. Seattle has essentially two, I5 running north and south, and I90 east and west. And there isn't much to the west other than Puget Sound, and not much to the east other than the Cascade Mountains. An amazingly unfriendly geography to become a big city.
I saw a photo of large new houses on small lots sitting unsold in Frisco Texas. It looks pretty grim, and evidently, the hoped for buyers feel the same.
But just a few blocks from my city condo are new SFHs of the tall narrow variety packed onto a lot where one 100 year old very nice home had been reaching its old age. Or on the prime spots, a new SFH at $2-3 mm. I don't think this neighborhood can handle that, so if you want new you will have a terrible commute or maybe a dark claustrophobic home close in. And you had better have strong legs because there will be a lot of stair climbing in these places
Many things seem to be rewriting the old expectations, and I feel like I really cannot guess how things will work out. My gut says very likely not a good time to go all in.
Ha
This graph shows just how low starts are, even with a much larger population in the USA than earlier. I read not to worry, it will come. Maybe, but when? Also, what is going on? Is it affordability, changes in preferences of the relevant demographic, changes in the demographic profile of US residents, or other factors?
New SFHs in old cities pretty much means that one must accept one of the very tall narrow buildings that are common infill units in city neighborhoods where old structures are torn down or drive a very long way into far suburbs or exurbs. Many cities have many freeways coming in. Seattle has essentially two, I5 running north and south, and I90 east and west. And there isn't much to the west other than Puget Sound, and not much to the east other than the Cascade Mountains. An amazingly unfriendly geography to become a big city.
I saw a photo of large new houses on small lots sitting unsold in Frisco Texas. It looks pretty grim, and evidently, the hoped for buyers feel the same.
But just a few blocks from my city condo are new SFHs of the tall narrow variety packed onto a lot where one 100 year old very nice home had been reaching its old age. Or on the prime spots, a new SFH at $2-3 mm. I don't think this neighborhood can handle that, so if you want new you will have a terrible commute or maybe a dark claustrophobic home close in. And you had better have strong legs because there will be a lot of stair climbing in these places
Many things seem to be rewriting the old expectations, and I feel like I really cannot guess how things will work out. My gut says very likely not a good time to go all in.
Ha
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