Anyone here all in S&P500? Boring but seems like a "set it and forget it" strategy?
Would anyone dare to keep it after retired? Vanguard much lower percentage, more like 40% or so.
Your thought please
Enuff
Anyone here all in S&P500? Boring but seems like a "set it and forget it" strategy?
Would anyone dare to keep it after retired? Vanguard much lower percentage, more like 40% or so.
Your thought please
Enuff
Anyone here all in S&P500? Boring but seems like a "set it and forget it" strategy?
Would anyone dare to keep it after retired? Vanguard much lower percentage, more like 40% or so.
Your thought please
Enuff
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv | Vanguard 500 Index Investor | ||||||
Year | Inflation | Return | Balance | Return | Balance | ||
1993 | 2.75% | 10.62% | $11,062 | 9.89% | $10,989 | 10.62% | 9.89% |
1994 | 2.67% | -0.17% | $11,044 | 1.18% | $11,118 | -0.17% | 1.18% |
1995 | 2.54% | 35.79% | $14,996 | 37.45% | $15,282 | 35.79% | 37.45% |
1996 | 3.32% | 20.96% | $18,139 | 22.88% | $18,778 | 20.96% | 22.88% |
1997 | 1.70% | 30.99% | $23,761 | 33.19% | $25,010 | 30.99% | 33.19% |
1998 | 1.61% | 23.26% | $29,289 | 28.62% | $32,168 | 23.26% | 28.62% |
1999 | 2.68% | 23.81% | $36,264 | 21.07% | $38,945 | 23.81% | 21.07% |
2000 | 3.39% | -10.57% | $32,429 | -9.06% | $35,418 | -10.57% | -9.06% |
2001 | 1.55% | -10.97% | $28,873 | -12.02% | $31,160 | -10.97% | -12.02% |
2002 | 2.38% | -20.96% | $22,821 | -22.15% | $24,259 | -20.96% | -22.15% |
2003 | 1.88% | 31.35% | $29,976 | 28.50% | $31,174 | 31.35% | 28.50% |
2004 | 3.26% | 12.51% | $33,728 | 10.74% | $34,522 | 12.51% | 10.74% |
2005 | 3.42% | 5.98% | $35,745 | 4.77% | $36,170 | 5.98% | 4.77% |
2006 | 2.54% | 15.51% | $41,289 | 15.64% | $41,827 | 15.51% | 15.64% |
2007 | 4.08% | 5.49% | $43,556 | 5.39% | $44,081 | 5.49% | 5.39% |
2008 | 0.09% | -37.04% | $27,424 | -37.02% | $27,762 | -37.04% | -37.02% |
2009 | 2.72% | 28.70% | $35,294 | 26.49% | $35,114 | 28.70% | 26.49% |
2010 | 1.50% | 17.09% | $41,327 | 14.91% | $40,351 | 17.09% | 14.91% |
2011 | 2.96% | 0.96% | $41,724 | 1.97% | $41,145 | 0.96% | 1.97% |
2012 | 1.74% | 16.25% | $48,506 | 15.82% | $47,656 | 16.25% | 15.82% |
2013 | 1.50% | 33.35% | $64,682 | 32.18% | $62,989 | 33.35% | 32.18% |
2014 | 0.76% | 12.43% | $72,721 | 13.51% | $71,498 | 12.43% | 13.51% |
2015 | 0.73% | 0.29% | $72,935 | 1.25% | $72,391 | 0.29% | 1.25% |
2016 | 2.07% | 12.53% | $82,076 | 11.82% | $80,945 | 12.53% | 11.82% |
2017 | 2.11% | 21.05% | $99,355 | 21.67% | $98,484 | 21.05% | 21.67% |
2018 | 1.91% | -5.26% | $94,132 | -4.52% | $94,028 | -5.26% | -4.52% |
2019 | 2.29% | 30.65% | $122,983 | 31.33% | $123,485 | 30.65% | 31.33% |
2020 | 1.36% | 20.87% | $148,649 | 18.25% | $146,018 | 20.87% | 18.25% |
2021 | 7.04% | 25.59% | $186,685 | 28.53% | $187,680 | 25.59% | 28.53% |
2022 | 6.45% | -19.60% | $150,090 | -18.23% | $153,468 | -19.60% | -18.23% |
2023 | 1.70% | 8.25% | $162,467 | 9.12% | $167,468 | 8.25% | 9.12% |
I think Ray Dalio is very smart, but I'm just dubious of the % correlation of different assets. I just don't think it's that clear. 2022 was a perfect example. My sense is consensus was very clear on stock v bond correlation , yet owning a portfolio of 20-30% bonds did very little to offset the poor returns of stocks. I saw that in my moms account.
I'm not defending Dalio. I chose to post his vid because it was one of the shorter ones discussing the point.
I think the logic and math of risk reduction with uncorrelated assets is sound which means that the old consensus that stocks-zig when bonds-zag has broken down some what. When bottomless pocketed buyers (central banks with "printers") buy bonds with a goal to control rates, the market is no longer functioning the way it did when the stocks+bonds=diversification consensus was formed and the correlation is no longer an inverse relationship... at least not to the degree it was 40 years ago.
So the trick becomes finding 10 truly uncorrelated assets. I only looked into it for about 5 minutes a couple of weeks ago and the suggested assets were non-starters like fine art and wine. The wine might work except I buy cheap stuff and I'd drink my assets skewing my portfolio allocation...
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/mutual-funds/diversificationThe chart in this article shows hypothetical portfolios with different asset allocations: The most aggressive portfolio shown comprises 60% US stocks, 25% international stocks, and 15% bonds: it had an average annual return of 9.77%. Its best 12-month return was 136%, while its worst 12-month return would have lost nearly 61%. That's probably too much volatility for most investors to endure.
Portfolio Performance (Jan 1972 - Apr 2023) | |||
Metric | Portfolio 1 | Portfolio 2 | Portfolio 3 |
Start Balance | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 |
End Balance | $1,560,138.20 | $1,554,060.75 | $2,506,650.76 |
Annualized Return (CAGR) | 10.34% | 10.33% | 11.36% |
Portfolio Performance (Jan 2000 - Apr 2023) | |||
Metric | Portfolio 1 | Portfolio 2 | Portfolio 3 |
Start Balance | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 |
End Balance | $43,004.50 | $44,801.10 | $58,606.13 |
Annualized Return (CAGR) | 6.45% | 6.64% | 7.87% |
Portfolio Performance (Jan 2010 - Apr 2023) | |||
Metric | Portfolio 1 | Portfolio 2 | Portfolio 3 |
Start Balance | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 | $10,000.00 |
End Balance | $47,695.28 | $46,032.06 | $43,695.21 |
Annualized Return (CAGR) | 12.43% | 12.13% | 11.69% |
Anyone here all in S&P500? Boring but seems like a "set it and forget it" strategy?
Would anyone dare to keep it after retired? Vanguard much lower percentage, more like 40% or so.
Your thought please
Enuff
My opinion may differ from mainstream thoughts.Anyone here all in S&P500? Boring but seems like a "set it and forget it" strategy?
Would anyone dare to keep it after retired? Vanguard much lower percentage, more like 40% or so.
Your thought please
Enuff