Why I think a second wave next winter is inevitable.

[I was misinformed]

Weather/Climate effects on covid19

It seems there are huge gaps in the scientific understanding of the seasonal effects on flu-like epidemics in general. The National Academies convened a rapid consult team to summarize knowledge relevant to the current pandemic

https://www.nap.edu/read/25771/chapter/1

The key conclusions are summarized in the second last paragraph on page 6:

https://images.nap.edu/books/25771/gif/6.gif

 

[Badger]

If it is inevitable, then why did the SARS-2 virus flame out in the early 2000's? Same with swine flu.

Since you are making the comparison does that mean that you believe all viruses behave the same?


Cheers!

 

[Badger]

I don’t think a “second wave” will wait until the fall to happen. I think we’ll get another one very soon due to restrictions being lifted. What remains to be seen is how bad it is, and how long it lasts.

+1 and the second wave will start with a higher number of infected people and could very likely be worse. We will know how bad the spread could become about 4 weeks after restrictions are lifted. Watch those areas where restrictions are first lifted for what it will be like elsewhere. By then the hospitals will be inundated with patients.
As for us we are staying away from direct contact with people as much as possible. Maybe just grocery shopping every 3 weeks and predawn bike rides through quiet neighborhoods, otherwise any outdoor time will be in our back yard enjoying the birds and the squirrels.

If there is more than a month between my posts then you can figure that my plan doesn't work.



Cheers!

 

[Dtail]

+1 and the second wave will start with a higher number of infected people and could very likely be worse. We will know how bad the spread could become about 4 weeks after restrictions are lifted. Watch those areas where restrictions are first lifted for what it will be like elsewhere. By then the hospitals will be inundated with patients.
As for us we are staying away from direct contact with people as much as possible. Maybe just grocery shopping every 3 weeks and predawn bike rides through quiet neighborhoods, otherwise any outdoor time will be in our back yard enjoying the birds and the squirrels.

If there is more than a month between my posts then you can figure that my plan doesn't work.



Cheers!

You must have big birds and squirrels......

 

[xretro]

are you a doctor? if not i don,t care what you think!

 

[timo2]

I'm wondering if the 'great reopening' will cause a wave of some sort?

 

[Badger]

You must have big birds and squirrels......

Lots of Black Oil Sunflower seeds and peanuts/peanut butter. Big variety of birds with indigenous and migratory species. We are frequently visited by Red shoulder hawks and owls. I have been watching baby owls being fed by momma during early dawn bike rides. Fluffy little guys.


Cheers!

 

[Badger]

are you a doctor? if not i don,t care what you think!

I would be selective as to what kind of doctor you listen too. I wouldn't put quite as much confidence in a proctologist.



Cheers!

 

[audreyh1]

I'm wondering if the 'great reopening' will cause a wave of some sort?

You think?

 

[MRG]

+1 and the second wave will start with a higher number of infected people and could very likely be worse. We will know how bad the spread could become about 4 weeks after restrictions are lifted. Watch those areas where restrictions are first lifted for what it will be like elsewhere. By then the hospitals will be inundated with patients.
As for us we are staying away from direct contact with people as much as possible. Maybe just grocery shopping every 3 weeks and predawn bike rides through quiet neighborhoods, otherwise any outdoor time will be in our back yard enjoying the birds and the squirrels.

If there is more than a month between my posts then you can figure that my plan doesn't work.



Cheers!

+2
That's our expectation. Hopefully we are wrong. We're not up at dawn but the only contact we're having with others is zero.

Despite our limited contacts DW has been fighting what we thought was a cold. Unfortunately it matches 3 of the latest 6 new symptoms added. I have had a much milder version of what she has been experiencing.

 

[aiken]

Since you are making the comparison does that mean that you believe all viruses behave the same?


Cheers!

No, I don't. What I believe I know is it was widely assumed that in previous outbreaks they would come back. But they didn't. So I'm just asking why it is "inevitable."

 

[Retire2013]

I don’t think a “second wave” will wait until the fall to happen. I think we’ll get another one very soon due to restrictions being lifted. What remains to be seen is how bad it is, and how long it lasts.

+1

 

[Bir48die]

Man, I thought I was reading the news here. Very popular topic is "what could happen."

 

[brewer12345]

No, I don't. What I believe I know is it was widely assumed that in previous outbreaks they would come back. But they didn't. So I'm just asking why it is "inevitable."

Inevitable? Dunno. You look at this thing and tell me. Highly contagious and easily spread, lots of people champing at the bit to go back to work, eat in restaurants and go shopping. Looks like a second wave is highly likely.

 

[statsman]

I heard a discussion about the flu shots for the next flu season that could pose some interesting challenges. If I heard correctly, the basis for the flu shots are for those viruses still considered "active" during the previous March/April time frame.

The main issue is nearly all of our medical resources have been spent on tracking COVID-19 and not much else. For those individuals who they recommend to get a flu shot, they may not get much benefit during the next flu season.

 

[Major Tom]

Someone on my Facebook feed just posted that, after extensive studying of star charts, she is convinced that a second wave will begin in August. She humbly admits to not being an expert at astrology, though she has been studying it for a couple of decades now.

*Sighs*..............

 

[braumeister]

Someone on my Facebook feed just posted that, after extensive studying of star charts, she is convinced that a second wave will begin in August. She humbly admits to not being an expert at astrology, though she has been studying it for a couple of decades now.

*Sighs*..............

Don't discount that prediction too quickly. I think it's every bit as reliable as Magic 8 Ball.

 

[Rustic23]

are you a doctor? if not i don,t care what you think!

+1

 

[Rustic23]

I would be selective as to what kind of doctor you listen too. I wouldn't put quite as much confidence in a proctologist.
Cheers!

Well, we could expect their opinion to be cr@ppy.

 

[Dtail]

Well, we could expect their opinion to be cr@ppy.

Well, you don't want a "2nd opinion" from the same proctologist.

 

[REWahoo]

Well, you don't want a "2nd opinion" from the same proctologist.

Right. No way do I want the doc to use two fingers.

 

[jimbee]

Right. No way do I want the doc to use two fingers.

Ya gotta be careful.

 

[Clone]

Someone on my Facebook feed just posted that, after extensive studying of star charts, she is convinced that a second wave will begin in August. She humbly admits to not being an expert at astrology, though she has been studying it for a couple of decades now.

*Sighs*..............

Wait a minute, where is that old Mayan calendar that I got as a souvenir? It may have the answers!

I am just kidding, I have my essential oils all up to date, my ying and yang are perfectly balanced, I sat on a vortex near Sedona a couple months ago- What could possibly go wrong!!

 

[NameRedacted]

Well I still haven't seen anyone propose any reasonable explanation for the large difference in death rates between Northern and Southern countries or between Northern and Southern states.


Although, it does seem that the numbers seem to be spiking upward in Brazil right now.

 

[NameRedacted]

Someone on my Facebook feed just posted that, after extensive studying of star charts, she is convinced that a second wave will begin in August. She humbly admits to not being an expert at astrology, though she has been studying it for a couple of decades now.

*Sighs*..............

Astrology, the bane of my life. My degree was in math and astronomy. The number of people that conflate astronomy and astrology is depressing. It got so bad that I would just started leaving astronomy off my resume.