Withdrawing Perspectives/Questions

CKw4itlb

Dryer sheet wannabe
Joined
Oct 13, 2021
Messages
12
Hello, folks. I'd like some perspectives regarding a discussion I had yesterday with my Vanguard advisor regarding future withdrawals from Vanguard.

In April, I'll receive my first Social Security check which will cover my set monthly expenses and very little else, especially as grocery costs mount even for me, the only one in my household. I work a couple of small gigs that are hit and miss with paychecks. This generates about $5K a year, give or take. I have no debt, a FICO score of about 838, and tend to be quite frugal. Because I'm physically quite active still, and I hear the life clock ticking, I feel I should do a few fun things now while I can, as age 62 swiftly approaches.

My Vanguard account indicates that if I have approximately $18,000 a year in various living expenses, I have a greater than 99% chance of success at age 100. Once I receive my SS, my original plan was to scale back from my average monthly withdrawal amount of $1,200 to about $500 or $600. The advisor told me that I "CAN" take up to $1,500 out per month and have the scenario PROBABLY work out, but she'd prefer to see me take out less so that I have more invested, in the game. I understand that concept, frugal and overly cautious nature I've had forever, but do you folks see an issue with withdrawing on the higher amount, at least for another year or two? At age 65, I'll have my full pension of about $500.

In the short run, I suspect I'll have about $8,000 costs for a needed fence and garage siding (thank you woodpeckers...). My car is sound, driven very modestly.

I appreciate your feedback.
 
Well, If I read your entry right your "safe withdrawal" number is $18000/yr for 99% success, you could take $1500 out per month (18000/12=1500.
So if your plan is only 1200/mo, I don't see a problem.

Run Firecalc yourself and feel free to ask questions here. There are so many more knowledgeable folks than me who will answer you!
 
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My Vanguard account indicates that if I have approximately $18,000 a year in various living expenses, I have a greater than 99% chance of success at age 100.

I'm a little confused by this statement. Are you saying that you DO have about $18K/year in living expenses? And is this "Vanguard account" some sort of retirement calculator, or is that what your advisor is telling you?

From what I can tell from your prior posts around here, you haven't shared much about your investments or what various calculators (such as FIRECalc) have told you about your SWR. Mind sharing some of those details? If not, it will be hard for anyone to give you meaningful, actionable advice on your situation.

Also, FWIW, I would strongly suggest you take another look at your living expenses. Unless you are very frugal and live in a very LCOL area, I doubt your annual expenses—averaged over many years to include lumpy purchases such a new appliances, cars, major home repairs/maintenance, etc.—could actually be $18K. By way of comparison, when I first FIREd as a single guy (now married), I drew up a detailed, all-inclusive FIRE budget that showed my annualized expenses were in the ballpark of $50K. I live in a MCOL area and consider myself to be quite a bit more frugal than average.
 
The $18K is what Vanguard suggested I list as my annual expenses, and that was a few years ago, based on my input to them. My overhead is quite low, probably about $1K a month, so that's what I meant about SS covering my expenses.

I live in a LCOL state and city in the Midwest, and coupled with no debt and what I consider to be frugal, that is why I have the figures I do.

One of my primary concerns from the post was why wouldn't the advisor just go ahead and green light up to $1,500 or more per month (should I desire to do so for the reasons outlined before)? I have zero intent to spend like a drunken sailor, but the advisor's caution is giving me pause.

The Vanguard calculators along with their initial input suggested I'd be fine. Insecurity is one of the culprit's for this post.
 
One of my primary concerns from the post was why wouldn't the advisor just go ahead and green light up to $1,500 or more per month (should I desire to do so for the reasons outlined before)?

That's a good question. Unfortunately, though, no one here can really help answer it unless you give us more details. If you'd rather not do that for some reason, then at the very least, go input your numbers into FIRECalc and see if the results are roughly in agreement with what your Vanguard advisor is saying.
 
4% of your portfolio is the normal. Since we don't know the amount of your portfolio, we don't know what is the percentage of $18,000 with respect to your portfolio.
 
Vanguard would like to see you keep more invested than less, so your interests are not aligned. Same with an advisor who gets a percentage of portfolio. Not saying such advice is always suspect but good to be aware.
 
Montecfo,

You just hit on what I was also wondering. In the past, I've had Merrill and Edward Jones, and, aside from their hefty fees, I always had at least a smidge of a feeling that my money was THEIR money, and my best interests weren't at heart. I've had a significantly better experience and comfort level with Vanguard, but when the advisor said something to the effect that I should be invested more, it raised a minor flag. I don't put Vanguard on the same level as my prior advisors, but there is a suspicious component I have.

Also, to everyone, I appreciate your input.

Note: When I use the above-linked calculator, plugging in my data, using annual spending of $18K, it shows a 96% average success rate.
 
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We really can't give you a reasonable answer without knowing what your nestegg is.

If you go to FIRECalc and input $18,000 for spending and keep the 30 year default, then go to the investigate tab and check the starting portfolio radio button under
Given a success rate, determine spending level for a set portfolio, or portfolio for a set spending level
Search for settings that will get a success rate of as close to 95% as possible (usually within 1%) by changing... Spending Level or Starting portfolio value
and click on submit, you'll see that FIRECalc calculates that you'll need $445,746 to be able to spend $18,000 annually for 30 years from a 75/25 portfolio.

That $18,000 would adjusted annually for inflation.

But from what you wrote in the OP, let's say that you really only want 20 years of $18,000 annual withdrawals for 20 "go-go" years (62 to 82) to supplement your SS.

I also tried it for 20 years of inflation adjusted $18,000 withdrawals by changing the Spending on the Start Here tab to $0 and using $18,000 of inflation adjusted Off-Chart Spending Spending starting in 2023 offset by $18,000 of inflation adjusted Pension Income starting in 2043 and had trouble getting FIRECalc to solve for a stating portfolio value, so I changed the Investigate tab to solve for the success rate and entered different strting portfolio values until I got a success rte near 95% and it looks like $375,000 would support 20 years of $18,000 annual withdrawals with a 95.9% success rate.
 
One of the best ways to ensure you maintain your lifestyle even if you live a long time or the markets don't do well is to defer Social Security as long as you can, up to age 70. It's inflation adjusted, has no investment risk and lasts a lifetime. The extra security is particularly important for folks that don't have a zillion $ cushion tucked away.

To get more feedback you would need to provide your portfolio size, your SS payment size, whether your pension is inflation adjusted. Also, it helps folks understand your situation better if you list other assets/liabilities like owning your home and any outstanding mortgage or other debt.
 
^^^ Exchme makes a good point and let me use an example. Let's say that your SS at 62 is $24,000 a year. At 70 it would be $39,680 a year. In addition to SS, let's say that you have $400,000 of retirement savings and are using a 4% safe withdrawal rate.

If you start SS at 62, you can safely spend $40,000 a year... $24,000 of SS plus $16,000 of portfolio withdrawals ($400,000 at 4%).

Allternatively, let's say that you put $317,440 (39,680 * 8 years) of your $400,000 off to the side and use that to fund $39,680 of spending for the first 8 years from 62 to 70 when your SS of $39,680 starts. That leaves you with $82,560 of retirement saving that can provide $3,302 of spending at a 4% withdrawal rate.

So if you defer SS until you are 70 you can safely spend $42,982 ($39,680 from the side fund and then SS and $3,302 from retirement savings) where if you start SS at 62 then you can only safely spend $40,000 a year.

If you are in good health and have good longevity prospects then this is something to consider. If your health or longevity prospects are not so good then starting SS at 62 may be better for you.
 
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One of the best ways to ensure you maintain your lifestyle even if you live a long time or the markets don't do well is to defer Social Security as long as you can, up to age 70. It's inflation adjusted, has no investment risk and lasts a lifetime. The extra security is particularly important for folks that don't have a zillion $ cushion tucked away.

To get more feedback you would need to provide your portfolio size, your SS payment size, whether your pension is inflation adjusted. Also, it helps folks understand your situation better if you list other assets/liabilities like owning your home and any outstanding mortgage or other debt.

According to OP CKw4itlb's opening post, that ship has sailed. OP stated that he will receive his first SS check in April. Yes I know he could back out and wait, but he saiod that SS will cover his budget and so the withdrawals are for fun "blow the dough" type stuff. The root question that I think OP is asking is "how much can I withdraw safely out of my savings?"
 
Congrats on filing for SS. I see from your profile that you retired in 2017. You may want to spend a little more now - statistics say you got 20 years left. Good luck.
 
....
Note: When I use the above-linked calculator, plugging in my data, using annual spending of $18K, it shows a 96% average success rate.


Did you enter your social security and pension into Firecalc?
You can try various ages to get SS & see if that affects the results
On the last tab of firecalc, you can "investigate" what withdrawal will lead to a 100% if that's what you want.


None (almost) of us here follow a fixed annual draw in practice. Expenses tend to be lumpy - either planned or unplanned. When markets do badly, most pull back a bit and loosen the purse strings a little when the markets do well.
 
38Chevy454, I think you capsulized my question very well.

I decided to take SS at 62 for several reasons, primarily because I don't want to leave anything on the table, I'd rather preserve my Vanguard funds for "fun" rather than necessities. Reasons like that. At this age, I seem to STILL have some of my parents' depression era mindset--theirs, not mine. Splitting the difference, so to speak, I want to be cautious and to have some fun.
 
38Chevy454, I think you capsulized my question very well.

I decided to take SS at 62 for several reasons, primarily because I don't want to leave anything on the table, I'd rather preserve my Vanguard funds for "fun" rather than necessities. Reasons like that. At this age, I seem to STILL have some of my parents' depression era mindset--theirs, not mine. Splitting the difference, so to speak, I want to be cautious and to have some fun.
The original question you had, is how long the invested money will last, when withdrawing $1,200 monthly,

You can go to Flexible Retirement Calculator or many other apps to model different scenarios.

How long until it runs out is a function of total invested, investment performance, your age, and yearly expenses you need to fund.
 
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