No ulterior motive... Just the longer question...
Serious and realistic. Not far out "worst ever" or 1% possibilities.
What do you think "could be" the worst case for investment loss based on current or historical factors.
Yes, this could be one of those "need more details" questions. Infinite variables. But... without getting into the weeds, this Wiki article analyzes all of the US Depression/Recessions going back to the 1700's. Many factors compared, but the more recent details, use as one factor... the drop in the GDP.
...So lets use this as a comparison factor. FWIW, here are some of the more recent major disruptions. Gross Domestic Product percentage drops from peak to trough.
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
1929-1933 -26.7%
1937-1938 -18.2%
1945 8 mo. -12.7%
2007-2009 -5.1
Lots more in between, with different factors, but based on this, how about a "gut feeling percentage", based on that one factor...
Further... into a different set of weeds... how about a dollar drop for the Dow. As of this morning $25790.
Numbers to the next "LOWS".
As an economics "know nothing"... Here's my guess:
in 2 years:
GDP.... -5%
Dow... new low $15,000.
Serious and realistic. Not far out "worst ever" or 1% possibilities.
What do you think "could be" the worst case for investment loss based on current or historical factors.
Yes, this could be one of those "need more details" questions. Infinite variables. But... without getting into the weeds, this Wiki article analyzes all of the US Depression/Recessions going back to the 1700's. Many factors compared, but the more recent details, use as one factor... the drop in the GDP.
...So lets use this as a comparison factor. FWIW, here are some of the more recent major disruptions. Gross Domestic Product percentage drops from peak to trough.
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
1929-1933 -26.7%
1937-1938 -18.2%
1945 8 mo. -12.7%
2007-2009 -5.1
Lots more in between, with different factors, but based on this, how about a "gut feeling percentage", based on that one factor...
Further... into a different set of weeds... how about a dollar drop for the Dow. As of this morning $25790.
Numbers to the next "LOWS".
As an economics "know nothing"... Here's my guess:
in 2 years:
GDP.... -5%
Dow... new low $15,000.
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