Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[audreyh1]

Note that Texas has changed how they report fatalities on their dashboard as of today.

First of all, on Sunday they reported 5,038 fatalities total, today they report 5,711 total fatalities - as of 7/24! So there is some kind of catch-up going on, with 675 additional fatalities added today.

However, on their dashboard they switched to a deaths by date graph based on death certificates, and you can't see the number of fatalities recently reported on a given day. They appear to have gone flat, but that's because recent data is missing. They say nothing about the change on the dashboard. I had to go hunting for news about the change - couple of links have been included below.

It looks like things have flattened with 1 more death reported for 7/24 and nothing after 7/24 and they also stop the 7 day average on 7/14. So this is going to be real confusing for a while. On 7/14 they had reached a 7 day average daily fatalities of 153. I guess that means data after 7/14 is not yet complete.

Ugh! I have to switch to calculating the difference between daily cumulative fatality numbers. Whatever.

This news article reported 44 additional deaths today (Monday) but I don't know where they got that number. Ignore the video as it is from yesterday, talking about yesterdays numbers, but does point out that Texas deaths jumped 25% in just 1 week from 4020 to 5038 yesterday (they don't know to do the math and say 20%). https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...jump/285-19fc2cc4-a1ab-4d28-88a2-e439a176eb60
and https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/27/texas-changes-counts-coronavirus-deaths/

 

[Car-Guy]

Some wise [-]guy[/-] man around here keeps telling us "numbers is hard". Looks like he is right!

 

[MichaelB]

Same in FLA.
Just under 9k today.

The Florida number is substantially below the same day a week ago. Overall, the 7 day average for new cases in Fl has fallen from its peak of 11.8k to around 10.5k. Still very high, but it’s held at this level for 4 days, so it may have plateaued.

Fatalities are below the same day a week ago, but the 7 day average remains high. New hospitalizations also seems to have plateaued, at a high level. So, I guess the Florida situation report is “it stopped getting worse”.

Some wise [-]guy[/-] man around here keeps telling us "numbers is hard". Looks like he is right!

+1

 

[Dtail]

Note that Texas has changed how they report fatalities on their dashboard as of today.

First of all, on Sunday they reported 5,038 fatalities total, today they report 5,711 total fatalities - as of 7/24! So there is some kind of catch-up going on, with 675 additional fatalities added today.

However, on their dashboard they switched to a deaths by date graph based on death certificates, and you can't see the number of fatalities recently reported on a given day. They appear to have gone flat, but that's because recent data is missing. They say nothing about the change on the dashboard. I had to go hunting for news about the change - couple of links have been included below.

It looks like things have flattened with 1 more death reported for 7/24 and nothing after 7/24 and they also stop the 7 day average on 7/14. So this is going to be real confusing for a while. On 7/14 they had reached a 7 day average daily fatalities of 153. I guess that means data after 7/14 is not yet complete.

Ugh! I have to switch to calculating the difference between daily cumulative fatality numbers. Whatever.

This news article reported 44 additional deaths today (Monday) but I don't know where they got that number. Ignore the video as it is from yesterday, talking about yesterdays numbers, but does point out that Texas deaths jumped 25% in just 1 week from 4020 to 5038 yesterday (they don't know to do the math and say 20%). https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...jump/285-19fc2cc4-a1ab-4d28-88a2-e439a176eb60
and https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/27/texas-changes-counts-coronavirus-deaths/

Florida also has some issues with as of reporting deaths, which makes it appear better than it is. Anything to keep the numbers down.

 

[Dtail]

The Florida number is substantially below the same day a week ago. Overall, the 7 day average for new cases in Fl has fallen from its peak of 11.8k to around 10.5k. Still very high, but it’s held at this level for 4 days, so it may have plateaued.

Fatalities are below the same day a week ago, but the 7 day average remains high. New hospitalizations also seems to have plateaued, at a high level. So, I guess the Florida situation report is “it stopped getting worse”.


+1

Okay, kind of like a little pregnant.

 

[cathy63]

Note that Texas has changed how they report fatalities on their dashboard as of today.

First of all, on Sunday they reported 5,038 fatalities total, today they report 5,711 total fatalities - as of 7/24! So there is some kind of catch-up going on, with 675 additional fatalities added today.

However, on their dashboard they switched to a deaths by date graph based on death certificates, and you can't see the number of fatalities recently reported on a given day. They appear to have gone flat, but that's because recent data is missing. They say nothing about the change on the dashboard. I had to go hunting for news about the change - couple of links have been included below.

It looks like things have flattened with 1 more death reported for 7/24 and nothing after 7/24 and they also stop the 7 day average on 7/14. So this is going to be real confusing for a while. On 7/14 they had reached a 7 day average daily fatalities of 153. I guess that means data after 7/14 is not yet complete.

Ugh! I have to switch to calculating the difference between daily cumulative fatality numbers. Whatever.

My county also started reporting deaths by date of death a few weeks ago. It's terrible because it always looks like things are getting better during the most recent two weeks, even though those bars will end up as high as the previous ones.

The NYT still has the deaths by date reported for each state. Here's TX: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[MRG]

Isn't that amazing! I imagine that there would be few large companies better positioned to bring it off successfully. Now GE just has to figure out how to retool to make turbines at home.

My work took me into the disaster recovery plans of number of financial and insurance providers. Many were going to do WFH in event of a site failure or biohazard. How well they're able to pull it off is the difference. Yeah you can get people to log in from home, is it secure? Can be. Can your people work together to make the business effective? The tools exist but that is the challenge.

 

[audreyh1]

The Florida number is substantially below the same day a week ago. Overall, the 7 day average for new cases in Fl has fallen from its peak of 11.8k to around 10.5k. Still very high, but it’s held at this level for 4 days, so it may have plateaued

I think the Texas daily cases has also plateaued and dropped very slightly, and New York Times classifies it as “mostly staying the same”, but shows that 7 day average deaths are still climbing sharply. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

Here is their page on FL https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[audreyh1]

My county also started reporting deaths by date of death a few weeks ago. It's terrible because it always looks like things are getting better during the most recent two weeks, even though those bars will end up as high as the previous ones.

The NYT still has the deaths by date reported for each state. Here's TX: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

Yeah, I linked that. NYT graphs are great, but run a day behind. Which is OK - I think they are updated the next morning.

 

[brewer12345]

We got this today:

NOTICE: Due to a server issue yesterday and today with our electronic laboratory reporting system, the number of tests completed and cases reported today, July 27, may be artificially low. We expect the issue to be resolved by the end of the day and any discrepancies accounted for in our data tomorrow.

So numbers today are bunk and given the general levels of competence in gubmint, I will not hold my breath for this to be resolved tomorrow. Meanwhile we are back at April levels of daily case counts.

 

[GravitySucks]

Can anyone have faith in the Florida numbers after they demoted the IT person in charge of the dashboard for refusing to fudge the numbers?

Florida also has some issues with as of reporting deaths, which makes it appear better than it is. Anything to keep the numbers down.

 

[PatrickA5]

We got this today:



So numbers today are bunk and given the general levels of competence in gubmint, I will not hold my breath for this to be resolved tomorrow. Meanwhile we are back at April levels of daily case counts.

Same thing happened in my state last week. Took a few days to find all of the new cases that went missing.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, stuff like that is occasionally going to happen, as long as they catch back up in a few days and get the history straight.

 

[brewer12345]

Well, stuff like that is occasionally going to happen, as long as they catch back up in a few days and get the history straight.

Hahahahaha!

 

[Dtail]

Can anyone have faith in the Florida numbers after they demoted the IT person in charge of the dashboard for refusing to fudge the numbers?

There you go.
Remember "we will not be like New York"........................

 

[audreyh1]

OK - more explanation of the new method of counting and correction to the previous undercounting

Texas' count of coronavirus deaths jumps 12% after officials change the way they tally COVID-19 fatalities

The Texas Department of State Health Services is now counting deaths marked on death certificates as caused by COVID-19. Previously, the state relied on local and regional public health departments to verify and report deaths.

Public health experts have said for months that the state’s official death toll is an undercount. State health officials said Monday that the policy change would improve the accuracy and timeliness of their data.

Texas law requires death certificates to be filed within 10 days.

“This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause,” the Texas Department of State Health Services said in a news release.

 

[Another Reader]

“This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause,” the Texas Department of State Health Services said in a news release.

This is confusing. If someone dies of a blood clot or stroke caused by the virus and the death certificate shows the clot or stroke as the cause of death, are they counted as having died of COVID?

 

[audreyh1]

“This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause,” the Texas Department of State Health Services said in a news release.

This is confusing. If someone dies of a blood clot or stroke caused by the virus and the death certificate shows the clot or stroke as the cause of death, are they counted as having died of COVID?

Well that doesn’t sound unrelated, but who knows. Probably more like died of injuries due to an accident or murder or something. This has always been controversial which I suppose is why someone felt compelled to include that statement.

There is always the check against excess deaths (deaths way above “normal”) as a comparison when looking back at all this.

 

[audreyh1]

There is quite a bifurcation now in total cases at worldometers - four states are above the 400,000 mark. The remainder are all under 200,000. Most well under.

Of course it’s the most 4 populous states above the line, but still quite a divide. The 5th most populous state, Pennsylvania, is way down at 112,995 cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[CaptTom]

This is confusing. If someone dies of a blood clot or stroke caused by the virus and the death certificate shows the clot or stroke as the cause of death, are they counted as having died of COVID?

There are people making the opposite argument; that COVID deaths are being over-reported. I think we're right to take ALL these numbers with a grain of salt. I also think it's easy to focus on one possibility (over- or under-reporting) and disregard the other, for personal or political reasons.

The data are collected by different individuals in different counties and states. Each individual has his/her own opinion, and each state, sometimes each county, has its own criteria for reporting.

In the end, it's going to be the excess death rate which confirms the real numbers. Meanwhile, I look to larger aggregations of numbers, either over time or geography, in hopes that the errors will tend to cancel out. Looking at any one snapshot in time or place isn't very informative.

 

[audreyh1]

In the end, it's going to be the excess death rate which confirms the real numbers. Meanwhile, I look to larger aggregations of numbers, either over time or geography, in hopes that the errors will tend to cancel out. Looking at any one snapshot in time or place isn't very informative.

Exactly!

 

[ivinsfan]

I just read yesterday that the UK has imposed a 14 day quarantine on UK citizens returning from Spain due too the rising number of cases in Spain.

So....stay tuned for more developments worldwide.

 

[Alan]

I just read yesterday that the UK has imposed a 14 day quarantine on UK citizens returning from Spain due too the rising number of cases in Spain.

So....stay tuned for more developments worldwide.

It’s not just U.K. citizens, it is everyone arriving from Spain.

 

[ivinsfan]

It’s not just U.K. citizens, it is everyone arriving from Spain.

True but most likely non residents or non citizens won't even come into the country, which I'm sure is part of the plan.

 

[Alan]

I just read yesterday that the UK has imposed a 14 day quarantine on UK citizens returning from Spain due too the rising number of cases in Spain.

It’s not just U.K. citizens, it is everyone arriving from Spain.

True but most likely non residents or non citizens won't even come into the country, which I'm sure is part of the plan.

Not sure what you are getting at here or which country you are talking about.

There are plenty of non-UK citizens who are resident in the UK and are either in Spain on holiday, on business or visiting relatives. Citizenship or residency has nothing to do with it, it is anyone that is traveling from Spain to the UK that has to quarantine.