Interesting -- according to a chart on the front page of the WSJ last week, this is exactly correct. It looks like the number of medical school graduates filling family-residency positions has decreased from a peak of about 2300 in 1997 to about 1150 in 2006. Wow, that is a 50% cut. It takes awhile to see the effect in the overall market since the older doctors have to retire over time.
Also, the average salary quoted (2003) in the US for General Practicioners was $121,000, quite low for the caliber of people that become physicians, the amount of time and money it takes to become one, and the competing professions out there. (not to mention the chance of getting sued)
On the other hand, my brother-in-law (aged in late 40's) is making a killing as a surgeon in the Midwest as part of a small 5 surgeon practice. He makes a little over half a million a year in a modern city with moderate weather where the average house costs roughly $125,000. That is what I call a "4x salary," about 4 times the median house price. (then again, he had to pay over 75K for the malpractice "tail" insurance when he left his last job to protect him against malpractice suits from those past surgeries)
On the third hand, it seems like Physician's Assistants can do a lot of things that GP's used to do? Can't they prescribe medicine in certain states now, etc.? Maybe that is good enough for front line care?
Also, the AMA actively opposes allowing doctors to immigrate to America in order to reduce the supply. A good friend of mine (now US citizen) is married to a brazilian doctor and they live in the US. She was a practicing doctor in Brazil, is fluent in English, passed her US boards on first try last year, and also went to Brazil's best medical school. The immigration process has been very difficult. She must now serve several years of low paid residency. And it will take her at least five years from beginning of this process to become a practicing doctor in the US. And she may even have to serve several years in a low population, rural outpost first depending on how the visa situation turns out.
Kramer