Your 2022 S&P Prediction

[RetireAge50]

-10.9%
But I’m not selling because any losses will more than be made up by the relentless 10% yearly average increase.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Up 5% 5004.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[donheff]

5000. Why not go for a round number.

 

[freedomatlast]

My SWAG is 5480.

 

[CRLLS]

I am hopeful that the world gets a handle on Covid in 2022. If so, there will be a burst of exuberance and a rally late in the year. Until then I think it will be kind of flat. I'm guessing a 15% rise ending at 5481.12

 

[Taxman59]

This is an election year. The party in power (Dems) will try to pump up the market, and the opposition (Reps) will point out the problems. The pandemic will have a few more tricks up its sleeves. Overall, a bouncy but essentially flat first 10 months followed by a burst up (Reps win big) or mini crash (Dems win big). A look at history says the Reps win moderately to big, so I'll go with a big up finish for a final 5,338.12 (13% up from Friday's close).

 

[Surfs_Up]

5150

 

[Fermion]

5150

So....Van Halen year?

 

[F.I.R.E User]

6,000. Book it. This will be the greatest gains in history of S&P 500.

 

[Surfs_Up]

[So....Van Halen year? ]


Rock on !

 

[jollystomper]

Lots of bouncing around, but 5,447 by end of year.

 

[pacergal]

I have no idea, but curious to know who won the 2021 guesstimate?

 

[aja8888]

I have no idea, but curious to know who won the 2021 guesstimate?

The guy who started this thread.

 

[mistermike40]

I'm going to say - do to midterms - it touches 5500 (about a 15% gain).

 

[JDARNELL]

I'm going to say - do to midterms - it touches 5500 (about a 15% gain).

I would take that all day long

 

[BadgerNCarolina]

So....Van Halen year?

As long as it isn't a Rush year!!

 

[Closet_Gamer]

For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result.

None.

This is for fun.
The portfolio is for real.

 

[ATXFIRE2034]

Figured I would reply with my reasoning like others have. Here's how I see the year playing out: Omicron peaks in mid-Jan, Fed completes taper in March, Fed raises interest rate to .25% in June, new COVID variant emerges in July / August, Fed doesn't raise interest rate in the fall, Fed raises interest rate to .5% in December. Gains will be strong in the market until the first rate hike in June, markets sells off after that and volatility rises with new variant and the mid-term election cycle. November and December are VERY strong months in the market to end the year. Unemployment falls to 3.5% by year end, GDP growth on the year is 4.5% and 10 year treasury ends the year at 2.25%.

Forgot to mention that core inflation will run ~3.7% for the year.

 

[SecondCor521]

5281. If I don't play, I can't win.

I always guess just the market historical average, so for the above I just took the current value and added 10.8% (which may or may not be the right number, but it seemed close in my head).

I fully expect to be wrong. I also don't make any financial decisions based on the above prediction.

ETA: @OldShooter, my portfolio is just a bit below 98/2 and my target is just a bit above 98/2. I'm staying the course on my strategy, which is to opportunistically and lazily move my portfolio toward the target unless it hits a rebalance band (which it likely won't). I also will do Roth conversions if we have a significant correction or pullback, especially if it's later in the year and my tax situation is more certain, although it's already pretty certain.

ETA2: I have no idea what COVID will do. I think the Fed and the midterms are going to a big deal, but I really don't know how those will turn out either, so not much predictive value beyond the JPM quote previously given about fluctuation.

I do think that we're mostly a bunch of optimists. Which makes sense, because optimists over the past several decades have been the ones buying stocks, and stocks have been on a nice run over that time. So we optimists have done well and thus joined this board.

 

[Helen]

Another vote for 5150.

1. Because it's a great album

2. Everything seems crazy

"5150 is the number of the section of the Welfare and Institutions Code, which allows a person with a mental challenge to be involuntarily detained for a 72-hour psychiatric hospitalization."

 

[aja8888]

Another vote for 5150.

1. Because it's a great album

2. Everything seems crazy

"5150 is the number of the section of the Welfare and Institutions Code, which allows a person with a mental challenge to be involuntarily detained for a 72-hour psychiatric hospitalization."

I should also mention this:

The 5150, also called 5150 Mexican Royalty, is a violent gang from the La Sierra neighborhood in Riverside, California. From what we can tell, at some point in time, two different gangs, the 5150 and Mexican Royalty, had actually merged, according to the court testimony of a gangs expert.

Seems like Cali has a 5150 fetish.

 

[Alectoris]

Eddie runs to 5150.

Neal says 2112.

I stand somewhere in somewhere in the middle of that.

 

[Alectoris]

And with great admiration and sense of peace, I am reminded of the lyrical stylings of Chumbawamba.

 

[Gumby]

5123

 

[clifp]

5151.

It is tempting to say 2525 after the strange song 2525.
"In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find"...