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Multiple time cancer survivors nearing ER
Old 03-08-2015, 07:42 AM   #1
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Multiple time cancer survivors nearing ER

Im glad I found this community I've learned a lot already. Apologies up front I tend to be wordy, and the FAQ suggests detail is good - so it is a long post. Ill be 59 this year, DW is 6 years behind me. I had my first bout with cancer in 1993 at the ripe age of 36. It was stage 4, colon cancer that had spread to my liver. I wasn't expected to make it. Although it financially wiped me out, I somehow survived. In 2007 they determined I had a genetic defect and decided to take my colon out as preventative. Although I had a clean exam just 6 months prior, they found new stage 3 already. Then 2 years ago DW had stage 4 breast cancer, and also survived but is on chemo every 3 weeks for the rest of her life. Last year I had a very rare skin cancer related to the same gene defect. More about longevity in a bit, but as you might guess wed like a few years to enjoy the retired life.

My original plan was to retire at 62, now Im confident I can go sooner. The new plan is at 60, just under 2 years from now. According to FireCalc, I could probably go today with at least a 95% confidence, but I have a few things to do before I go. Many people have a bucket list since my dad died of cancer at 53, I've tried to check off bucket list items every year of my life, and not grow a long one. Living life every day seems like a better plan. On the other hand, I have had a longer list I call my acquire before retire list. These are things Id like to have but would not take on debt in retirement to get them. I've been working on that steadily 2 years ago we bought our retirement home on a lake in mid-Michigan (there is currently a mortgage), last year we bought a pontoon boat, etc. My kids are grown, ages between 27 and 32. The 32 year old actually still lives with us (she is a pre-school teacher, and that doesn't pay well) but is on notice that Ill be selling the house next year and she needs to be on her own.

I've calculated a retirement budget. It is about 20% less than we spend today, outside of savings (in retirement for me, new accumulation isn't a priority). The 20% can be explained by reducing mortgage, right now I still live in another area full time, so the extra mortgage and house expenses will drop off when I sell it). Here it is for those that want to comment. Youll find I didnt drop things like smart phone data plans, cable, and I assume the worst in income taxes (most of our retirement is pre-tax). We regularly use the retirement home on weekends and a few weeks in the summer, but while were not sure about year round utilities, I can be confident they wont be worse than my current home (and likely less since the house is smaller, has a wood stove that is very efficient, and a well that keeps water costs down). Not sure if Ill keep the mortgage or pay it off when I sell my other houses (see below). Home maintenance includes putting away funds for bigger repairs; I dont actually spend $200 every month on fixing things. The car payment is because we only own one SUV now (I have a company car as well), it has over $90K miles, and wed like to get a smaller sedan like a Focus or Fusion. I still need to do diligence on health insurance, but my company retirement includes some insurance until I hit 65. (From what I've learned, Ill need to fund HI for DW for the 6 years after I turn 65 but she doesn't). This puts me at around $62K/year. At this level we will easily be in the top 1/3 income in the area, so with a modest cost of living around there we expect to be quite comfortable.
Expense Monthly
Mortgage 450
Ins. (house) 50
Taxes (Property) 200
Mortgage ins. 50
Utility (elec/gas) 275
Car pmt 400
Car ins 250
Car maint/gas 250
groceries 400
Boat Ins 50
health ins 500
insurance (life, kids) 250
smart phone/data 150
cable/internet 120
hobbies 200
home maintenance 200
misc 200
medical out of pocket 320
Income taxes 830
marina dues 50
-------
Total Monthly 5195

Now the plus side. As I mentioned, I had a financial restart at age 36, and with 3 kids I just couldn't save as much as my peers. I estimate my 401k will be $400K based on modest 6% growth and a bit of make-up contributions. The better news is that I get a pension. Ill have a choice of $3175/month annuity (non-COLA) or $740K lump sum (current estimate, these change each year). It is a 100% survivor pension due to additional employee contributions all along, so DW is set) There is an extra $1K/month until I reach 62. I lean toward lump sum at the moment, based on longevity. I will absolutely start my SS at 62 also because of the longevity factor).
When I sell my downstate house, I expect about $40K net out of it. I also own a cottage free and clear just mile from my retirement house. The current plan is to sell it, which would end up being another $50K-$60K net. That house costs me less than $1K a year in taxes and insurance, so I do have a few other options. I could rent it out and probably get $450/mo or so. I could just use it as a guest house (it has an awesome pole barn, keeping my boats in there could save me in storage costs!).

The hardest part of planning is longevity. Most of the men in my family died at an early age from cancer, due to the genetic defect. Only one survived until he was 80, but he was a preacher so I think he had special help . Of course on my mothers side they live longer, mid 80s, but I dont think that is a factor, so I really expect to go earlier rather than later. DW's longevity is even harder. The type breast cancer she had, with the drugs she now gets every 3 weeks, tends to be about 5 years of survival. However a certain percent of women go 20 or 30 years, and her family tends to live long (late 80s early 90s).

So I have a few things that must be done before I go get the house ready to sell, take one more big trip for our 35th anniversary, and a few things on the new house (like a new well, which goes in this spring). I have a few things to continue to research and gain confidence on, like health care costs over time. Ill have to ultimately decide about lump sum or annuity, and mortgage or payoff. But no matter what scenario I run, I see 100% success in the future. Unless of course I missed something.
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Old 03-08-2015, 01:57 PM   #2
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No specific suggestions on the financial side, but I'm glad you're in a position to accelerate your retirement. You'll often see people on this forum talk about time being greater than money, and your history is a good lesson to realize that we never know what the future holds and to appreciate our freedom and time when we can.

Good luck!
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Old 03-08-2015, 02:33 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by fishndad42 View Post
Im glad I found this community I've learned a lot already. Apologies up front I tend to be wordy, and the FAQ suggests detail is good - so it is a long post. Ill be 59 this year, DW is 6 years behind me. I had my first bout with cancer in 1993 at the ripe age of 36. It was stage 4, colon cancer that had spread to my liver. I wasn't expected to make it. Although it financially wiped me out, I somehow survived. In 2007 they determined I had a genetic defect and decided to take my colon out as preventative. Although I had a clean exam just 6 months prior, they found new stage 3 already. Then 2 years ago DW had stage 4 breast cancer, and also survived but is on chemo every 3 weeks for the rest of her life. Last year I had a very rare skin cancer related to the same gene defect. More about longevity in a bit, but as you might guess wed like a few years to enjoy the retired life.
You guys are tough, Congratulations!

Ha
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:39 PM   #4
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Welcome, fishndad. Quite an inspiring story.

A few thoughts:
- Have you plugged your numbers into FIRECalc? You might try both pension options there.

- Have you thought about how you would invest the lump sum if you go that route (and you seem to have good reason to do so)? It would be in an IRA so taxes would be less of an issue (taxes only on money you take out).

- Ditto for the cash from selling property.

Feel free to ask more specific questions as you continue the planning, and blessings to you and your family on your journey.
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Old 03-08-2015, 06:43 PM   #5
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I get the health/longevity concerns. 3 of my 4 immediate blood relatives died of cancer, 2 had dual malignancies (2 unrelated types of cancer). Cancer runs strong in my family.

That said - your numbers and budget seem a little tight.

I ran it in firecalc... I plugged in a portfolio of 1.040M (your 400k 401k, and the lump sum), and a spend level of 72000 for 30 years. I wasn't sure what your social security would be - so I put in 12k/year. (Does your wife also get soc. sec?) I left everything else as defaults. It wasn't a rosy picture. I'm probably not accounting for everything... I did not account for the approx. 100k of real estate equity you'll be receiving when you sell your cottage and downstate house. I also didn't account for portfolio increases in the 2 years you pan to continue working... if you're doing catch up contributions that means you could contribute another 56k between now and retirement.
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Old 03-08-2015, 07:02 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by MBAustin View Post
Welcome, fishndad. Quite an inspiring story.

A few thoughts:
- Have you plugged your numbers into FIRECalc? You might try both pension options there.

- Have you thought about how you would invest the lump sum if you go that route (and you seem to have good reason to do so)? It would be in an IRA so taxes would be less of an issue (taxes only on money you take out).

- Ditto for the cash from selling property.

Feel free to ask more specific questions as you continue the planning, and blessings to you and your family on your journey.
I have run FireCalc around a variety of assumptions and scenarios, interestingly the 2 main options come out similar. Of course the lump sump has more variability and in one set of assumptions only has a 98% likelihood of success, all other ways I've looked at it show 100%. I can easily get to the 100% mark in the one case by a few minor tweaks to the budget - pay down the hose to remove the mortgage insurance, used car instead of a new one, and so forth. My confidence is pretty high, either way, and either way if we don't live all that long, the kids should get a modest inheritance. If we live way more than 30 years, the annuity works out better but perhaps not better enough to worry about.

The lump sum would certainly roll over to an IRA, I know a few guys I trust that are FMs and manage investments, one in particular that I've known for 40 years seems to manage funds consistent with my risk tolerance. This is an area I have a lot more to learn about though.

I'm thinking the property proceeds will be invested after tax. The main home will get the one time capital gains exemption, and the other is likely to get booked as a loss. Then I'd have a better pre-tax post-tax balance, which I was thinking could help lower income tax against SS. Does that make sense to people?

Or if I get nervous and want to reduce my budget, I might just pay off the retirement house mortgage - the proceeds from both would just about match the remaining balance. I'm not there at the moment, the interest rate is about 3.8% and the tax deduction helps, but I haven't done any mock tax returns yet around different scenarios.

Thanks for the reply and kind words.
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Old 03-08-2015, 07:21 PM   #7
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I get the health/longevity concerns. 3 of my 4 immediate blood relatives died of cancer, 2 had dual malignancies (2 unrelated types of cancer). Cancer runs strong in my family.

That said - your numbers and budget seem a little tight.

I ran it in firecalc... I plugged in a portfolio of 1.040M (your 400k 401k, and the lump sum), and a spend level of 72000 for 30 years. I wasn't sure what your social security would be - so I put in 12k/year. (Does your wife also get soc. sec?) I left everything else as defaults. It wasn't a rosy picture. I'm probably not accounting for everything... I did not account for the approx. 100k of real estate equity you'll be receiving when you sell your cottage and downstate house. I also didn't account for portfolio increases in the 2 years you pan to continue working... if you're doing catch up contributions that means you could contribute another 56k between now and retirement.
Thanks. Any reason you picked $72K spend level, I was using $62K. I was using 1.14M for the portfolio not including the property receipts, and SS should be 21,400. I haven't looked at the wife's SS, she only worked part time for a few years so I don't think it will be much. I do have another small pension out there from a former employer, I need to track down all the mergers and find out how to estimate that. I'm seeing 94% - 100% success in the scenarios I've run, and it doesn't seem like it will take many adjustments to make them all 100%.

I hope you dodge the cancer bullet, having that kind of a family. Either you go before your time or you live though some pretty harsh treatments, neither is something I'd with on anyone. But knowing that you could is one good reason to enjoy every day you get!
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Old 03-09-2015, 11:11 AM   #8
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Looks like you've done a fair bit of homework though given where you live I'm a bit surprised that your budget is as high as it is. It's not that far from mine and I live in a far more expensive area. And you could always look to do things to reduce further (sell the current car and get a used one as an example if you aren't as much) but that's something you'll have to figure.

I'd be most concerned about the medical bills given your previous history. I am not sure if they are going to be fixed expenses that you can easily budget for or they could escalate and get out of hand rapidly should a worse case situation arise.

My biggest worry if I were you is the health care given the medical history. Are those costs you have budgeted fixed or can they go up substantially? You already know more than most of us what can happen with medical issues.

Given your history I think in your shoes I would tend to roll the dice somewhat. Time >>$$ and with your history in spite of your herculean efforts already you may feel that you are more likely to run out of time than someone who is completely healthy and considering ER. You aren't planning to retire today so you have some time to consider things to help you be 100% comfortable in retirement.

Finally I truly hope you and your wife completely beat the big C and you have a long and wonderful life together. Though healthy cancer is one of the main reasons why I have saved dilegently to ER as it took my mother at far too young an age (68). Had she not ER she might have only had a year or two to enjoy life before life became unbearable.
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Old 03-09-2015, 07:46 PM   #9
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Looks like you've done a fair bit of homework though given where you live I'm a bit surprised that your budget is as high as it is. It's not that far from mine and I live in a far more expensive area. And you could always look to do things to reduce further (sell the current car and get a used one as an example if you aren't as much) but that's something you'll have to figure.

I'd be most concerned about the medical bills given your previous history. I am not sure if they are going to be fixed expenses that you can easily budget for or they could escalate and get out of hand rapidly should a worse case situation arise.

My biggest worry if I were you is the health care given the medical history. Are those costs you have budgeted fixed or can they go up substantially? You already know more than most of us what can happen with medical issues.

Given your history I think in your shoes I would tend to roll the dice somewhat. Time >>$$ and with your history in spite of your herculean efforts already you may feel that you are more likely to run out of time than someone who is completely healthy and considering ER. You aren't planning to retire today so you have some time to consider things to help you be 100% comfortable in retirement.

Finally I truly hope you and your wife completely beat the big C and you have a long and wonderful life together. Though healthy cancer is one of the main reasons why I have saved dilegently to ER as it took my mother at far too young an age (68). Had she not ER she might have only had a year or two to enjoy life before life became unbearable.
Thanks for your comments and the good wishes, I really appreciate them.

Indeed I can, and most likely will lead a more frugal life, so the budget is a bit heavyweight. I can dig up all the fishing worms I need, though once in a while you need to buy a few new hooks. I have a habit of creating plans with a lot of options. In this case I started close to today's living, then I can develop the what-if options. In all likelihood I'll opt for a used car - I've only owned one new one in my life, and the only thing I got out of that was faster depreciation. DW went the other route at first, looking for a minimum (she came up with $36K/year). Then I'd ask "what about this or that" and she got disappointed. My way we ask "could we do without" and it's enabling instead of depressing! (We read road maps very differently as well - the invention of the GPS probably saved our marriage!).

With being able to stay in the company group medical in retirement, we hope we can continue to manage our medical bills. As you might guess, we tend to meet our deductible by mid-February (DW's treatments are about $12K a pop, every 3 weeks!) The plan has a max out-of-pocket. Could all that change? Sure. I kind of figured we'd been through a few catastrophic medical issues, and I looked back on our tax summaries to make this budget. But looking at it again it does kind of seem low, so I'll go back through the last 2 years again, maybe I made a mistake here. I'm also open to how people make planning assumptions around medical costs.

Cancer takes away too many people. I firmly believe that stress is a major trigger as to why some people get it early. I run FIRECalc with a 30 year assumption in part because I suspect the reduction in stress could just fend off the next time for a good while. Now, I just need to make it happen!
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Old 03-09-2015, 08:33 PM   #10
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Fishindad , If I were you I would retire and enjoy the time you & your wife have .Best ending is you live long but have to pinch pennies .
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:04 AM   #11
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Fishindad , If I were you I would retire and enjoy the time you & your wife have .Best ending is you live long but have to pinch pennies .
Agree! Now that I am gaining confidence on retiring at the end of 2016, I'm working it backwards 6 months at a time to see if I can get even closer!

In fact, for the last month, every weekend I take something up north that I want to keep, try to get rid of at least one extra trash bag of stuff not worth anything, and gathering up a pile to take to the church rummage sale. A few weeks back I started working on some minor wall repairs so I can start repainting, with an eye on the real estate market to get the house ready to sell.

Time to get ready!
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Old 03-10-2015, 10:31 AM   #12
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I plan pretty much the way you do, looking at what is most likely the make and then backing off where I think we need and examine lots of planners etc to see (FireCalc, FRP, i-ORP etc etc) basically anything I got my hands on I tried.

Being able to stay in the company group medical is probably going to be better. For my planning I put in roughly both of us getting to the deductible limit each year + the premiums. That's not likely to happen I think but better overbudget and use the extra money for something fun that underbudget and be eating cat food :P. My best plan has me moving back to Canada and exchanging high medical bills for cold weather...my wife is not in agreement with this plan however

Fishing sounds like a great way to reduce some bills and some stress
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Old 03-10-2015, 10:49 AM   #13
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I've had to deal with 2 cancer diagnoses: One I live with - leukemia, no treatment so far since my diagnosis 8 years ago. Second was prostate cancer; I had surgery a couple of months after my ER, and all is good now on that front.
My leukemia was the final impetus for my ER decision. I'm lucky in that I may never need treatment for it, but there is no predictability with this and I could just as well need treatment at any point. Nevertheless, once the financial piece was in place I wanted out of the w*rkforce, and enjoy my current good health.
I wish you and your wife the best. For what it is worth, I have not regretted or second-guessed my ER decision.
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Old 03-10-2015, 10:52 AM   #14
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Wow, you certainly have had your share of dealing with cancer between you and your wife! I am glad that you are both doing good now. With the issues and family history, I tend to agree, get out soon as you can. Once health is gone, no amount of money can make that up.

As long as you can be flexible with your spending, and keep expenses below a safe withdrawal rate (based on your risk and tolerance), you are probably close to being able to stop working now. Lump sum vs pension is something you can compare the values vs expected longevity and make a choice. From my perspective only you and your doctors can really know the details and what seems the best decision.

One thing that you definitely need is good medical insurance, is that included with your pension? If lump sum does that go away? This fact alone may drive you toward pension payments.
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Old 03-10-2015, 12:43 PM   #15
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One thing that you definitely need is good medical insurance, is that included with your pension? If lump sum does that go away? This fact alone may drive you toward pension payments.
Definitely need to get the final word on that. If for some reason lump sum then also eliminates group health care, I'd have to re-run everything but I'd guess I'd go for the annuity. My health care benefits are really good - I'm in a plan where I can pretty much pick my own doctors and don't ever need referrals. I'm not even sure its available to new employees, its more like a grandfathered coverage. I'd like to carry that on, and you are right, it could affect the decision. Thanks for the post.
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Old 03-11-2015, 09:43 AM   #16
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Thanks. Any reason you picked $72K spend level, I was using $62K.
My bad. I fat fingered my calculator.
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Old 03-13-2015, 10:57 AM   #17
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Hi Fishndad. You and DW are very strong and inspiring people. I feel that whatever you decide on will work out for you. I wish you all the best.
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Old 03-17-2015, 05:31 PM   #18
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Good news for me - I checked and found that my retiree health care and other benefits do not change whether I take the monthly payments or the lump sum. Let the final planning continue!
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Old 03-17-2015, 05:50 PM   #19
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Very inspirational post. Best wishes to you and your wife.
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