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Old 12-30-2012, 10:06 AM   #41
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Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.
That's a good add, something I know we all have mixed feelings about. It's a real double edged sword. Used for the right purposes, our private information can be used to customize our worlds in many ways, and remove a lot of unnecessary clutter. I welcome that, though we are very wary (haven't signed up for FB solely due to privacy). Unfortunately, used for the wrong purposes, our information can do serious damage or become at least a real nuisance. But we're going to have to give up some privacy and a price for it eventually. Unfortunately the bad guy (hackers) are just as talented as the legitimate folks, and I don't see that changing...
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Old 12-30-2012, 10:39 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by MissMolly View Post
Here is # 9:

9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.
Good one.

Regardless of where one stands on the gun debate, I watched on TV recently where a NY Newspaper published the names and addresses of gun owners.

My first reaction was, "Hey, isn't there some kind of law against that?" But I guess not.
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Old 12-30-2012, 10:56 AM   #43
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Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.
There are obvious options around this, most notably an email. Other than 3 or 4 Christmas cards, I can't think of the last personal letter I've gotten in the mail. You might like the personal touch of a handwritten letter, but I'm not going to subsidize the USPS for that. Pay $10 or do without.

I do still get some bills and statements (especially tax statements) in the mail, but I could adjust to getting them all online and printing what I want a hardcopy of. My main use for mail is that some online shippers still use it, and with all of the online shopping I'm a bit surprised the USPS hasn't been able to do better financially.

I'd be fine with getting rid of my landline, except that my cell signal is really weak at home. I guess I'd do it over the internet if landline prices went up too much more.
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:30 AM   #44
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This is a fun discussion, and as a techie who has used email and the internet (previously ARPANET) for 30+ years, I enjoy trying to look into the future. I have long ago made the transition for all 9 things (except I still mail packages at the post office, but that could be replaced by fedex). Here's where I see some things heading:
1- video glasses. We'll be able to watch anything, anytime, anywhere. It's potentially much cheaper and consumes much less power than regular displays. It's already underway (tinyurl.com/a5lhm6c)
2- we'll use the same glasses to record everything our eyes see, all the time, and because memory costs and density will continue to improve, we'll carry it with us (or it will all go to the cloud.) (tinyurl.com/awtxtt2)
3- we'll no longer drive our cars most of the time- Google is demonstrating it. This will help as we are older, or drink too much. Or you can text or watch movies while you commute. It might even prove to be safer overall (tinyurl.com/dyasxc3).
4- Large portions of college courses will move to internet-based. This will be driven by skyrocketing college costs. It's not there yet, but there's enough potential gain to drive this.
Of course, I may be wrong, but these are some of my guesses.

I'm not saying you are wrong but I'll like to tell you (because you may be too young to remember or have heard this) that in the 50's atomic power (as it was called) was going to make electricity "too cheap to meter". Yep that's what "they" were saying.

As has been attributed to Yogi Berra "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future".
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:38 AM   #45
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I think libraries will become less common.
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Old 12-30-2012, 12:07 PM   #46
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Plenty of things have already disappeared in our lifetimes: Slide rule already disappeared, despite many years in Chemistry and Physics class spent mastering our skills. Rotary telephone is all but gone - I remember the marketing campaigns for the fancy "Princess" phones with the push buttons that were more expensive but so much more modern. Party lines had mostly faded already. Many generations of computer technology (punch cards anyone?, paper tape?). Tape recorders are almost gone in all but niche applications. Home reel-to-reel is history and home cassette is fading fast. Eight track and betamax are gone in our lifetime. VHS is on the way out. Incandescence lights were a stable technology for a hundred years, but they will be rare in a decade.

Things I'd like to disappear, but I'm not optimistic: smoking. Who ever thought that was a good idea?
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Old 12-30-2012, 01:52 PM   #47
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Newspaper the distribution format can go. But it will be sad if an independent press can't be sustained.
The counter-argument to that is that an independent press cannot help but be sustained by the path forward into the future, because in the future everyone will be able to get their story out. Doesn't sound so good? Well that's why you have to be careful what you ask for: Back in the day, newspapers were controlled by the men (they were all men back then) who owned them. They were "independent" in that anyone with money could try to start a newspaper. We've gotten used to a broader perspective as journalism gained a stronger and better footing, with the news often (though not always) able to trump the publisher's preferences. But that improvement put us on the trajectory toward journalistic anarchy. I bet that there are literally thousands of "news reports" posted to YouTube each week. Good luck with the ultimate "independent press".

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Postal service is also being scorned because Fed Ex is so slick. But a lot of people can't afford to pay $10 to send a simple letter.
I'm not sure that the USPS is being "scorned" because of FedEx. When we talk about what the USPS does, we're talking about something that FedEx never has done and never will do, and people are not using FedEx instead of first class mail. The USPS is being "scorned" because of email, online billing, online bill payment, magazines on e-book readers, etc.
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Old 12-30-2012, 02:17 PM   #48
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USPS can survive if their business model and pricing are allowed to change with demand. As a start, allow the USPS to charge a postage rate adequate to support their service level. If that rate (i.e. the cost of delivering daily to every address) is higher than demand supports, then reduce service. If the USPS service level is allowed to balance with demand, it can probably remain viable for a long time.
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Old 12-30-2012, 02:19 PM   #49
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Star Trek had a hard time keeping up with 50 years in the future, much less 200.

Star Trek and books - YouTube
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Old 12-31-2012, 01:31 AM   #50
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9 THINGS THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN OUR LIFETIME:



8. THE "THINGS" THAT YOU OWN - Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be.

But all of that is changing.. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "CLOUD SERVICES." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet CLOUD.

If you save something, it will be saved to the CLOUD. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news.

But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.
I'd contest this one. I'm not sure about most individuals, but some will feel their privacy is their own problem and stick to local storage.

Where the 'cloud' is will matter. Recent changes to US law (ie Patriot Act) will ensure that, for instance, Canadian financial corporations will neither store data in the US nor allow it to pass through US wires. There is a project started that will lay a huge (data capacity) cable from Canada to Iceland to Irish Republic. Why? No Us territory means no US government oversight or interception of data.

No chance on the cloud thing.
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Old 12-31-2012, 11:07 AM   #51
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10) Some clothing items that used to be commonplace--womens' trousers that sit at the natural waistline. Full slips. Saddle shoes.

My mom got me PJ's for Christmas and they are cut to sit at the hip. They always feel like they need to be pulled up, but they don't have enough depth in the seat to be pulled up to the natural waist, and won't stay there anyhow. I wore out my last full slip a few years ago, and the only one I could find in the store was as I recall a real silk item that cost more than fifty bucks. Lucky for me, my mom was a home ec teacher and taught me to sew. I ended up making a slip, and if this goes on I think I'm going to be making more and more of my own clothes as time passes. So many of the clothes in stores are shoddily made and hardly worth what you pay for them anyway.

I wonder if the belles of the 1890's felt the this way when they got to be middle-aged and it became more and more difficult, and finally impossible, to buy a good corset.
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Old 12-31-2012, 11:14 AM   #52
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I'd contest this one. I'm not sure about most individuals, but some will feel their privacy is their own problem and stick to local storage.
I'm one of these, but I expect that eventually having a drive you can write to in the computer will be an expensive extra, instead of standard equipment. Remember floppy and Zip drives? I bet as "the cloud" comes more and more into use, all kinds of internal drives will suffer the same fate.
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Old 12-31-2012, 11:27 AM   #53
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10) Some clothing items that used to be commonplace--womens' trousers that sit at the natural waistline. Full slips. Saddle shoes.

My mom got me PJ's for Christmas and they are cut to sit at the hip. They always feel like they need to be pulled up, but they don't have enough depth in the seat to be pulled up to the natural waist, and won't stay there anyhow. I wore out my last full slip a few years ago, and the only one I could find in the store was as I recall a real silk item that cost more than fifty bucks. Lucky for me, my mom was a home ec teacher and taught me to sew. I ended up making a slip, and if this goes on I think I'm going to be making more and more of my own clothes as time passes. So many of the clothes in stores are shoddily made and hardly worth what you pay for them anyway.

I wonder if the belles of the 1890's felt the this way when they got to be middle-aged and it became more and more difficult, and finally impossible, to buy a good corset.
I just watched an Andy Griffith rerun from the later years (I'm stuck dog/apartment-sitting this week) and Aunt Bea (who was probably my age at the time) was wearing what I remember as "half sizes" dresses, designed and cut for short "mature" with no waist. Fashion will always change--as I am sitting here in jeans and a fleece hoodie marvelling at her housedress.

I think there will soon no longer be all-purpose cameras--the pro level, yes, but smart phones will take over the snapshot standalones.
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