Massive earthquake in Japan-tsunami warning

[Meadbh]

The tsunami was 23 meters (75 feet) high. It's difficult to imagine how any country could prepare for that, except to live only on top of the hills. Amazingly, there was a 38 meter tsunami in 1896.

Japan tsunami was less than 23 meters high

I also found a report of a 23 meter tsunami in Peru in 2010, but the fatalities were few.

If such an earthquake and tsunami were to occur on the West Coast, the consequences would be unbelievable.

 

[TromboneAl]

I've decided that the best way to describe a tsunami is as something between a wave and a tide, but mostly like a very fast tide. We often have waves of 20 feet around here, but they do no damage. When the tsunami hit California, it was reported to be 12 inches high.

But here are some videos from Crescent City (near us) to give you a feeling for what this "tidal wave" is like. It shows how on an open beach it's hardly noticeable, but in a river or harbor, the surge can have a big effect.

In the first video, the change in water level is no different from the change from low tide to high (those rocks are visible at low tide), but it changes in minutes instead of 6 hours.

YouTube - Crescent City Tsunami, 2011

YouTube - Crescent City Tsunami 3-11-2011

YouTube - Japan Earthquake Tsunami Destroys Crescent City California Harbor Rare Helicopter Video

YouTube - Crescent City CA March 11 2011 Tsunami Time Lapse video

 

[Nords]

Catching up on old posts again:

-- Nords pointed out the problems with getting reliable readings when the sensors start to go screwy. It would seem useful to have sets of sensors (temp, pressure, various radiation measures, H2 level meters, etc) sealed inside the RPV in their own independent protective vessels, safe from blast overpressure, irradiation, etc. When needed, blow the explosive bolts on the hatch and and expose a fresh set of sensors to the environment.

Nobody (except Naval Reactors, and lately not even them) wants to pay for redundancy insurance. Until it's too late.

I wonder how much the utility company paid out in dividends instead of on plant maintenance. I wonder if I own any of that stock through our index ETFs.

An update:
News reports are coming in that 3 helicopters have dropped 7 tons of water on the Unit 3 and 4 spent fuel pools. Assuming a pool is 40x40x40 ft and we want to fill it halfway up, I calculate that we would need roughly 400 helicopter drops (assuming a bulls-eye each time).

Oh, great. I can see that radcon math question popping up on the next NR engineer's exam in a few months...

 

[ronin]

I've been checking the EPA radnet website to monitor local radiation levels since the first "wave" of radiation has hit California. So far everything seems OK.

RadNet Air Monitoring Data from the U.S. West Coast | Japanese Nuclear Emergency: Radiation Monitoring | US EPA

 

[haha]

Thanks for this link.

Ha

 

[ronin]

You are welcome, Ha. Looks like the Pacific Northwest is cool. And Hawaii has a beta of zero... who would have thought a few weeks ago that beta would take on this meaning?

 

[veremchuka]

run your cursor over these pictures to see the before and after images. basically the tidal wave scoured the land bare!

ABC News - Japan Earthquake: before and after

 

[haha]

Tokyo stock exchange going wild to the upside today (Tuesday 3/22), after a Monday holiday for Vernal Equinox. TEPCO is up 16%, other stocks also up big.

Ha

 

[ls99]

From NHK world news:

Agency officials said at a news conference on Tuesday that aftershocks are becoming less frequent, but tremors with magnitudes of 7 or more could still occur. The officials warned that severe aftershocks could collapse buildings already damaged by the quake and tsunami, or cause another huge tsunami.

Officials are calling on people who suffered from the quake to be careful about their already-weakened health condition. Tuesday, March 22, 2011 18:58 +0900 (JST)


Magnitude 7.... Nothing to sneeze at.

 

[haha]

Magnitude 7.... Nothing to sneeze at.

I'll say. Plenty of Seattle would fall down with a nearby and not too deep 7. The Loma Prieta quake that brought down the Cypress St Viaduct in Oakland was a 6.9 or 7. In that quake over 50 people were killed and many more injured.

Ha

 

[sheehs1]

From NHK world news:
Magnitude 7.... Nothing to sneeze at.

Could there be additional tsunamis from these?

I was following the search for 24 year old Taylor Anderson from Va. who was teaching in Japan via the JET program. They found her ....but..did not find her alive. She made it thru the earthquake, reunited her children with their parents....got on her bike to bike 4 miles home and was hit by the tsunami. She was warned about the possible tsunami but left anyway. Quite young...without a frame of reference for something like this I suppose.

Praying for all in Japan...this has been just horrible.

 

[ls99]

Could there be additional tsunamis from these?

Yes, if offshore.

In other news:
I was poking around and found an article from a few days ago, in of all places the NY Times. (I don't have much use for the NY Whines) By a bona fide STA no less. (Shift Technical Advisor) the top of the heap of nuclear operators.

This person usually has an electrical engineering degree AND a Senior Reactor Operator's license. Yeah getting both of those IS a big deal.

Anyway he describes what type of persons run a nuke plant, and what it takes to become one, plus a few more things.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/opinion/18Friedlander.html?_r=2

In spite of the nuclear mayhem in Japan, likely much bigger disaster was avoided thanks to the reactor operators.

We owe them a huge thanks.

 

[Orchidflower]

This whole thing has been so extremely overwhelming to everyone that I cannot find any words to explain my sadness over it. My thoughts and hopes are with the Japanese people during this time.

 

[haha]

I was poking around and found an article from a few days ago, in of all places the NY Times. (I don't have much use for the NY Whines) By a bona fide STA no less. (Shift Technical Advisor) the top of the heap of nuclear operators.

This person usually has an electrical engineering degree AND a Senior Reactor Operator's license. Yeah getting both of those IS a big deal.

Anyway he describes what type of persons run a nuke plant, and what it takes to become one, plus a few more things.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/opinion/18Friedlander.html?_r=2

In spite of the nuclear mayhem in Japan, likely much bigger disaster was avoided thanks to the reactor operators.

We owe them a huge thanks.

Excellent article, thank you for posting it. Very brave guys, with a real code and esprit de corps.

Ha

 

[Ronstar]

Yes, if offshore.

In other news:
I was poking around and found an article from a few days ago, in of all places the NY Times. (I don't have much use for the NY Whines) By a bona fide STA no less. (Shift Technical Advisor) the top of the heap of nuclear operators.

This person usually has an electrical engineering degree AND a Senior Reactor Operator's license. Yeah getting both of those IS a big deal.

Anyway he describes what type of persons run a nuke plant, and what it takes to become one, plus a few more things.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/opinion/18Friedlander.html?_r=2

In spite of the nuclear mayhem in Japan, likely much bigger disaster was avoided thanks to the reactor operators.

We owe them a huge thanks.

Thanks for posting. Article sums up what I've seen among nuke workers. A lot of them in my neck of the woods. Highly dedicated, educated, innovative, and extremely reliable under pressure.

 

[ls99]

Happening now: Early Earthquke warning issued in Fukushima Prefecture. Camera showed swaying. NHK world news.

Approx: M5 +/-

Revised to 5.8, depth 110Km. No damages reported so far.

 

[SteveNU]

Yes, if offshore.

In other news:
I was poking around and found an article from a few days ago, in of all places the NY Times. (I don't have much use for the NY Whines) By a bona fide STA no less. (Shift Technical Advisor) the top of the heap of nuclear operators.

This person usually has an electrical engineering degree AND a Senior Reactor Operator's license. Yeah getting both of those IS a big deal.

Anyway he describes what type of persons run a nuke plant, and what it takes to become one, plus a few more things.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/opinion/18Friedlander.html?_r=2

In spite of the nuclear mayhem in Japan, likely much bigger disaster was avoided thanks to the reactor operators.

We owe them a huge thanks.

I can certainly relate to this as I spent many years in the control room as an SRO. I know that we would have done whatever we had to do to deal with something like they are experiencing in Japan.

I really am thankful for that job. Although I got out of nuclear power 10 years ago I still stay in touch with everyone at the plant. It played a big part in my FIRE plan.

 

[Gumby]

I can certainly relate to this as I spent many years in the control room as an SRO. I know that we would have done whatever we had to do to deal with something like they are experiencing in Japan.

I really am thankful for that job. Although I got out of nuclear power 10 years ago I still stay in touch with everyone at the plant. It played a big part in my FIRE plan.

It was my experience that the vast majority of people in the nuclear business have a very well developed sense of duty and responsibility. I'm not surprised that they would stay and fight the problem.

 

[Nords]

It was my experience that the vast majority of people in the nuclear business have a very well developed sense of duty and responsibility. I'm not surprised that they would stay and fight the problem.

After investing all that studying, training, and practicing, and then building a team, it's practically impossible to turn your back on the problem.

Years ago I was standing a nuclear proficiency watch on my second submarine. For second-tour officers those watches are better known to the troops as "Nobody touch nothin'; Nords has the watch and we're not sure how good he is at this nuke stuff anymore".

We unexpectedly had a change of testing plans and I ended up having to take the engineering watch section through shutting down the entire engineroom all at once and starting it back up again one piece at a time for acoustic testing... all while underway underwater, rigging for reduced electrical power, sucking major amps out of the battery, and making about three knots on our electric propulsion motor. I don't know who was more nervous about that watch-- me for having it or the Engineer for me having it. We did everything that watch except scram the reactor, and if we screwed up then that wasn't out of the question. It was a once-in-a-career evolution for all of us.

Five hours later we were all tired from the relentless focus on not screwing this up, hot & sweaty from having to shut off the air conditioning, full bladders & empty stomachs from too much caffeine and nobody wanting to give us a bathroom break, and attempting to recover from several unexpected equipment problems. But it was the most fun I'd ever had on watch and even now I'd volunteer to go back to sea for the chance to do it again. Especially if I could stand watch with my daughter.

After that experience, when I had my monthly proficiency watch then people weren't so afraid to try to get things done. At least not after they explained to me what I was supposed to remember how to do...

 

[Rambler]

The aftershocks did slow down a bit over the weekend, but they started to pick up pretty heavily again yesterday. I wonder if my heart rate kicking up to 130 with every aftershock counts as aerobic exercise? Supplies are starting to flow a little better in Tokyo. DW was able to find some milk this morning, and there was no line at the gas station either (same station had a line or at least 40-50 cars just a few days ago). A lot of people are still scared to death over the nuclear situation. The biggest problem in Tokyo is the rolling blackouts, because companies/factories cannot plan accurately for when they can and can't work. So far, we have seen no unplanned blackouts where I am although some have happened. The issue is that they will say there will be a blackout, and then it doesn't happen...but you've scheduled your staff on a half day because the machines won't work without power. So, now you have power but no staff, so a half day's production is lost. This is leading to some shortages of food. For example, in a bakery it takes 3 hours from start to finish to produce the bread. That means that you cannot start any new bread within 3 hours of the planned outage, and you cannot start any during the outage because there is no power. So, you have 6 hours of production lost. In a factory that normally runs 12 hours a day, that is half the production. If the production line starts up at 8am normally and goes to 6pm, and there is an outage planned for 11am, that means no bread can be started until 2pm. So there are 4 hours out of a 10 hour day. Of course the hours are extended in a case like this, but typically they do not run 24 hour days here because everyone uses public transport to get back and forth to work...which does not run 24 hours a day, and has been curtailed even further due to fuel and power shortages.

The above is just one example, but you can see why major manufacturers like Toyota and Sony are having trouble with supply chain and thus production issues. In my company we've already had numerous suppliers who are not even in the affected areas tell us that they will not meet their delivery schedules, mostly because of power outages, employee transport issues, and govt requests to conserve power by shutting down their production and doing no overtime. Recovery is going to take a very long time, IMO.

R

 

[haha]

The aftershocks did slow down a bit over the weekend, but they started to pick up pretty heavily again yesterday. I wonder if my heart rate kicking up to 130 with every aftershock counts as aerobic exercise? Supplies are starting to flow a little better in Tokyo. DW was able to find some milk this morning, and there was no line at the gas station either (same station had a line or at least 40-50 cars just a few days ago). A lot of people are still scared to death over the nuclear situation. The biggest problem in Tokyo is the rolling blackouts, because companies/factories cannot plan accurately for when they can and can't work. So far, we have seen no unplanned blackouts where I am although some have happened. The issue is that they will say there will be a blackout, and then it doesn't happen...but you've scheduled your staff on a half day because the machines won't work without power. So, now you have power but no staff, so a half day's production is lost. This is leading to some shortages of food. For example, in a bakery it takes 3 hours from start to finish to produce the bread. That means that you cannot start any new bread within 3 hours of the planned outage, and you cannot start any during the outage because there is no power. So, you have 6 hours of production lost. In a factory that normally runs 12 hours a day, that is half the production. If the production line starts up at 8am normally and goes to 6pm, and there is an outage planned for 11am, that means no bread can be started until 2pm. So there are 4 hours out of a 10 hour day. Of course the hours are extended in a case like this, but typically they do not run 24 hour days here because everyone uses public transport to get back and forth to work...which does not run 24 hours a day, and has been curtailed even further due to fuel and power shortages.

The above is just one example, but you can see why major manufacturers like Toyota and Sony are having trouble with supply chain and thus production issues. In my company we've already had numerous suppliers who are not even in the affected areas tell us that they will not meet their delivery schedules, mostly because of power outages, employee transport issues, and govt requests to conserve power by shutting down their production and doing no overtime. Recovery is going to take a very long time, IMO.

R

Thanks for the update Rambler. I know it must be very hard, but you are obviously coping very well in difficult circumstances.

Ha

 

[52andout]

So we are in week number three of this crisis which is not resolved. If you are reading the news accounts there are ongoing radiation problems. What will be the resolution?

 

[samclem]

So we are in week number three of this crisis which is not resolved. If you are reading the news accounts there are ongoing radiation problems. What will be the resolution?

There are over 10,000 people confirmed dead, the number may go to 20,000 before the counting is done. I'd guess there might be a few early deaths due to effects of radiation. The deaths and health effects resulting directly and indirectly from the loss of electricity (generated by nuclear power and other sources) will almost certainly be greater than any casualaties due to radiation
What will be the "resolution?" The families of those washed away or crushed will grieve, the survivors who had all their worldly possessions shaken apart or washed away will slowly rebuild with the help of their neighbors, and the infrastructure (to include the power plants, trains, roads, bridges, etc) will be cleaned up and rebuilt.

 

[haha]

So we are in week number three of this crisis which is not resolved. If you are reading the news accounts there are ongoing radiation problems. What will be the resolution?

This is a question for which no one can give an answer.

Ha

 

[Rambler]

This has been a horrible, horrible nightmare. I found out this morning that the last few of our contractors who were unaccounted for did not survive. These were our only casualties, but it is heartbreaking. The damage to our employees homes is still being tallied. We have several whose homes were either partially or entirely destroyed by the tsunami or earthquake. Heartbreaking. That's all I can say.

R