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Old 10-31-2012, 02:36 PM   #101
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Lost electricity here in the Cleveland, Ohio area Monday at 5:00 p.m. Still out as of now (48 hours later) with no end in sight. Last I heard they were telling people to plan for it being out till Friday or Saturday!

The cheapskate in me is frustrated over the $200 worth of food I am going to have to throw away that was in my refigerator and freezer.

Luckily, there are still many restaurants and bars nearby who have not lost power. I have a built in excuse to spend my evenings (after work) in the local Sports Pubs!

Also thankful it is not too cold (45). Sleeping at home has been bearable the last couple nights at that temp.
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:26 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by freebird5825 View Post
The next time I see someone complain about public w*rkers...

We are home and safe..they are not. Any questions ?
Hold on there cowgirl!

Just because many public workers do a great job, and some risk life and limb for our safety, does not mean we can't legitimately complain about any slackers.

I would hope that the good ones would be the first to complain about the 'bad apples' that give the good ones a bad name (in some people's minds - I don't judge a group by the few).

Is that OK?

-ERD50
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:36 PM   #103
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Why don't you just give it a rest for awhile?
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Old 10-31-2012, 08:08 PM   #104
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Why don't you just give it a rest for awhile?
+1
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Old 10-31-2012, 08:23 PM   #105
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Just heard from some friends of ours who live about 35 miles west of DC in Virginia. Four big trees down on their property - one hit their house, one's blocking the driveway, and two just down in the yard. Some family of ours in southwestern VA got some snow and sleet. I know most of the most serious damage is concentrated in NJ and NY, but dang this was one big, bad a$$ storm. Never seen anything like it.
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:02 PM   #106
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Left Long Island today. Since airports not really open and several flight cancellations interfered with getting out before Saturday, I hitched a ride to Pittsburgh where a plane awaits me tomorrow. Didn't need to use any cash despite no power since Monday.
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:36 PM   #107
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As for insurer liquidity, insurers specifically construct their balance sheets with these types of events in mind and the industry as a whole is awash with an excess amount of capital.
This event should fix that. How liquid is that capital?
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:08 PM   #108
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We tried filling the bathtubs last time. The water leaked out! I imagine there is some sort of fix for that, but how do you justify paying a plumber to fix the bathtubs to ensure they hold water for a week during a power outage? Plumbers charge $115.00 just to come to the house around here.

Amethyst
Actually a couple of plastic garbage cans would work, put a garbage bag inside and fill as needed. New cans typically hold water on their own but the bags help. The cans are strong enough to hold the weight.
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:00 AM   #109
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Nords...please please PLEASE jump all over this...

Inside Breezy Point: An Inferno in a Flood - Yahoo! News

The fire could not be prevented. Emergency w*rkers have to overcome stupidity and be redirected to rescue fools versus doing the j*b they were trained to do...emergency response NOT fighting Darwinian selection.
The home owners couldn't do anything about this but it is possible the city could have. I just saw a news overhead of teh fire area and they mentioned that some ocean front communities cut power when the hurricane came ashore. This area didn't. A lot of places had fires started by electrical shorts, sometimes accelerated by gas leaks. With a mandatory evacuation notice it seems reasonable to cut power until roads are clear enough for emergency vehicles to get back in.
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Old 11-01-2012, 09:40 AM   #110
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This event should fix that. How liquid is that capital?
Nah, this event is likely to be bupkis to the industry. So far the catastrophe modellers have kicked out 7 to 15 billion as the preliminary estimate of losses. Initial estimates are usually too low, so lets assume that the likely loss range is more like 15 to 20 billion. Sounds like a big number, but the industry as a whole finished 2011 with policyholders' surplus (regulatory capital measure) of $550 billion (see: III - 2011 - Year End Results ). In addition, a fair chunk of losses like this get transfered to the global reinsurance industry, which represents another pool of caital.

As far as liquidity goes, property casualty balance sheets are usually very conservatively invested. 80 to 90% of assets will typically be in investment grade fixed income, ghenerally with pretty modest durations and concentrated in the most liquid sectors of the market.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:24 AM   #111
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I am hearing pretty ugly stories from my former neighbors and friends in central NJ. Likely power outages for two weeks or more, low water pressure, flooding, major house damage from large trees falling. In my old cul-de-sac neighborhood a huge tree hit a pumping substation and now raw sewage is being dumped out, much of which is ending up in the lake. In NYC there are widespread power outages, flooding, nobody can go anywhere, although apparently they are managing to restock the supermarkets.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:35 AM   #112
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From friend on Long Beach...3 blocks from beach
"total- utter devastation"
no electricity
no water or sewer
all grass disappeared under 4 to 12 inches of sand
no gas
intermittent cell phone
no cable
boats in yards three blocks from beach
no way to get to work
stores closed
those that are open low or no food
some local businesses have thrown in towel, incl friends wife's employer
homes with basements are flooded
ocean covered entire island
half of all trees down
as of Wednesday - residents emotionally stunned.

Google view of Long Beach gives an idea of closeness of housing.

Bloomberg on losses...
Sandy Damage Estimate Raised to as Much as $50 Billion - Bloomberg
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:48 AM   #113
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From friend on Long Beach...3 blocks from beach
"total- utter devastation"
no electricity
no water or sewer
all grass disappeared under 4 to 12 inches of sand
no gas
intermittent cell phone
no cable
boats in yards three blocks from beach
no way to get to work
stores closed
those that are open low or no food
some local businesses have thrown in towel, incl friends wife's employer
homes with basements are flooded
ocean covered entire island
half of all trees down
as of Wednesday - residents emotionally stunned.

Google view of Long Beach gives an idea of closeness of housing.

Bloomberg on losses...
Sandy Damage Estimate Raised to as Much as $50 Billion - Bloomberg
Sad to see, but I have to wonder: why do we keep rebuilding on barrier islands like this?
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:22 PM   #114
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Sad to see, but I have to wonder: why do we keep rebuilding on barrier islands like this?
Because if private insurers are too smart to insure this stuff, we benevolent taxpayers, through our government and the magic of deficit financing, will step into the gap.

And because infantile people will not accept any limits on their wills.

Ha
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:46 PM   #115
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Developers want to build, people want cheap land, cities want to increase their tax base. Zoning and City Planners are told by politicians to allow it.

Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas. Give the home owner the $ to which they would be entitled in a re-build and tell them to go home shopping. Back in the day, in the 60s, the only houses on Fire Island were beach cottages that everyone understood were expendable.

Development is a political act. We can't expect politicians to push back, it is time for insurers to tell the public that if they build in vulnerable areas the price will be high. I recall the residents of Florida complaining of the cost of insurance, evidently the state stepped in with some kind of public insurance program. I hope that NY and NJ don't do that for any rebuilds. There is no reason to distribute that risk across the community.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:10 PM   #116
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Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas
Based on what I see with Fire insurance claims here in SoCal I don't think it will happen.

Here in SoCal people love to live right next to the forest areas prone to firestorms. In some areas a firestorm comes through every decade or so. Afterward we hear pundits and the press make statements such as yours.

Yet the houses get rebuilt bigger and bolder. Over the years more and more people build in these areas. And when the insurance rates go a little higher, the politicians see that the risk gets spread amoungst those far away from the danger so that those in great peril don't have to pay too much..

We all pay more so that people can live in these damage-prone areas.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:12 PM   #117
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Developers want to build, people want cheap land, cities want to increase their tax base. Zoning and City Planners are told by politicians to allow it.

Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas. Give the home owner the $ to which they would be entitled in a re-build and tell them to go home shopping. Back in the day, in the 60s, the only houses on Fire Island were beach cottages that everyone understood were expendable.

Development is a political act. We can't expect politicians to push back, it is time for insurers to tell the public that if they build in vulnerable areas the price will be high. I recall the residents of Florida complaining of the cost of insurance, evidently the state stepped in with some kind of public insurance program. I hope that NY and NJ don't do that for any rebuilds. There is no reason to distribute that risk across the community.
This is a tragedy and may become a bigger one for some property owners. I have seen instances where building permits for reconstruction after tornados were denied, making the properties unbuildable. The driving force is FEMA, the agency that regulates construction in flood prone areas. The builders filed for building permits, the city building dept's checked and found that the properties were in a FEMA defined flood plain, and the permits were denied.

Since the geographic limits of property remains unchanged during such an event, many properties could be under water, let alone in a flood plain. My heart goes out to these people because there is not much that they can do.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:14 PM   #118
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....With a mandatory evacuation notice it seems reasonable to cut power until roads are clear enough for emergency vehicles to get back in.
That an knowing that the power would be cut might encourage some of the idiots people that would otherwise stay to evacuate.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:17 PM   #119
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Nah, this event is likely to be bupkis to the industry. So far the catastrophe modellers have kicked out 7 to 15 billion as the preliminary estimate of losses. Initial estimates are usually too low, so lets assume that the likely loss range is more like 15 to 20 billion. Sounds like a big number, but the industry as a whole finished 2011 with policyholders' surplus (regulatory capital measure) of $550 billion (see: III - 2011 - Year End Results ). In addition, a fair chunk of losses like this get transfered to the global reinsurance industry, which represents another pool of caital.

As far as liquidity goes, property casualty balance sheets are usually very conservatively invested. 80 to 90% of assets will typically be in investment grade fixed income, ghenerally with pretty modest durations and concentrated in the most liquid sectors of the market.
+1 It will be an unwanted hiccup, and will dampen 2012 profits, but not debilitating in any way.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:33 PM   #120
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It would probably help for the Gubmint to stop insuring people who choose to build or rebuild in these areas. Use the existing insurance payments to buy them out and turn the beaches into public spaces.

Need a storm surge barrier? Look no farther than the Netherlands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maeslantkering

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=...QEwBg&dur=2562
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