Thank you for a reminder of the SciAm article.
The issues I see with it 'on the surface' are.
They are comparing some hypothetical future where a 'fleet of electric cars' exists, yet they don't define what comprises that 'fleet'. In addition, they eliminate renewables and nuclear from the grid stating that those sources are 'already spoken for'.
Not sure what difference the size of the fleet makes, they are looking at % differences per vehicle.
As far as renewables/nuclear - I agree that is somewhat debatable. IIRC, they based it on the idea that no nukes are being permitted, and most of the hydro that is available has already been tapped, or that it was already 'spoken for' by increased consumption over time.
On one hand, I like the fact that EVs are 'source neutral', they can use anything that produces electricity. OTOH, it's a bit of a 'cart-before-the-horse' situation until we actually have those sources and they are reasonably competitive.
An odd bit of information from their article is that in NY, an all electric car will only save 11% oil. The only way I can see this is if NY uses a lot of oil to generate electricity?
Yes, they show the sources and for NY it is 67.2% oil, 29.4% NG, 3.4% coal.
It is very good for people to be aware that electric vehicles are not a perfect solution. And any marketing that states these cars produce NO greenhouse gasses or CO2 is obviously wrong.
Agree again, yet, this is the message that the average Joe/Jane keep getting from the media and politicians - 'zero-pollution', 'green', you get to use the car-pool lane because you are so green, etc).
I don't think 'Hands down winner' is an exaggeration. We produce about half of our own gasoline. If some people have their way and we open up ANWAR, unlimited off shore drilling, etc, you might get that to 60% or 65%.
Canada, which I don't believe would be considered a threat to national security, is one of our biggest sources of imports. Mexico used to be number 1, not sure if they still are or not.
So really, for national security purposes I think we would need to cut our imports from ~50% to ~30%. So to answer your question if we can have enough EVs on the road, yes, I believe we can.
That's a lot of EVS. Hard to imagine this based on the time it takes the fleet to turn over, combined with the slowwwwwww cost curve and limitations we've seen on EVs. Even though 98% of my trips fit the range of an EV - until I can use one for those 2-3-4 longer trips per year, that's quite a dis-incentive to buy one.
The EV-1 from GM had a range of 70-100 miles on lead-acid batteries. That's right where we are with the Leaf, 14 years later in a 'high tech', aggressive industry.
EV's are new products and as such, the price is expected to come down as production scales up and battery technology advances.
I've said it before - battery technology is being pushed by computers, cell phones, and other mobile devices (these EVs just use a bunch of those same cells/technology). As noted above, 14 years later and the range is the same, until you get into the +$100,000 Tesla, with ~ 200 mile range. But that is clearly not something for the masses.
And for the advantages on a personal level, there is some premium built in. Just as someone paying a premium for a Cadillac SUV pays over a RAV4. The premium isn't just because it is larger. It is there because of the better handling, quieter ride, ammenities, etc.
Offset by the lack of range, needing to have a charger installed in your garage (assuming you
have a garage with power - many, many people do not), and limited charging facilities away from home (almost necessitating a back-up vehicle for long trips).
Like the vast majority of people, I don't own anything equivalent to a Cadillac SUV. EVs need to compete with the likes of a Honda CRV or other mass-market vehicle to hit the numbers you are talking about.
I actually like the idea of an EV, I just don't see them as any more than a niche for the foreseeable future, and I don't see them as any significant answer (actually may contribute to the problem) to any environmental or oil conservation issues. I suspect that the 'answer' will be something none of would have foreseen. In the same way that the city people in the 1890's who saw dead horses, horse manure, and flies as a major problem that needed to be solved would not have envisioned that the ICE automobile would solve that problem.
-ERD50
