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The Next 25 Years
Old 10-13-2018, 12:37 PM   #1
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The Next 25 Years

It's one thing to look to the future with respect to having enough money to retire and live happily, but money is only part of the picture. We naturally look around us to see how we can fit ourselves into a future that is like the time we live in today.

How we will live. With a daily routine... a car... a social life... travel.... standard pleasures of food and entertainment... a stable government... comfortable homes, safe food and water, a standardized education, standardized laws, an accepted moral standard, and all of those parts of life that we have adopted.

Hopefully any changes to be moderate and on a historically even timeline. A gradual change that we'll take in stride.

Still... handwriting on the wall. Changes that we CAN see today or in some cases changes that we can't see.

... and there lies the 20 year look ahead. Partly from curiosity but more importantly, the What If's and what might be
No shortage of doom and gloom on one side, and irrational optimism on the opposite side.

For starters, on the pessimism side.... this article from Slate:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/..._recirc_recent

...assuming that this is not ALL alarmist negative hype, an overview from which to make a comparison to what we expect this neartime future to be, and what could happen. For the parts that make sense to you, what can you plan to offset the negatives that might occur. Buying, spending, housing , location, saving, recreating etc...

... and... the positives... advanced technology, better governmental management of the law, infrastructure, international relations. Improvement in efficiencies across the board. Better health, and safety.

.................................................. ........................................
Pretty far out, but one thing at a time.

What about the dream home in Florida, on the beach, with your boat in the local marina.
The travel itinerary?
The all-tech home?
Children? Who? How Many? Education?
The Family? together? dispersed?
Food? In? Out? prepared? newfood?
Here to there? Cars? Scooters? Uber?
Shopping? Home? Where?
Jobs?
Workweek?

.................................................. ...............................................

From History:
Wars
Energy
Space
Plagues
Climate
Haves, Havenots
Government care
Populations


For today, my own concern is Climate Change, but if I were 55 and looking ahead, I think I'd be considering how to plan for changes that might be on the horizon.

I don't guess that this will engender much discussion, but perhaps, a back-of-the-mind note to be prepared for change... and maybe the fastest change in history.
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:08 PM   #2
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I fear that even a "practical" discussion of "climate change" would turn political so quickly that Porky would rear his ugly rear almost immediately. For that reason, I guess I'll just say that I've decided not to worry too much about it. I have always been one who attempts to use less than I need, waste little, consume less, harmonize with nature as much as reasonable, etc. So, whereas I AM a human and accept that my presence on this planet has it's detriments to the climate, I refuse to feel guilty or even responsible. I'm sure there are lots of folks who would disagree with me, but let's not forget Porky.

I certainly could worry about all this. I've got kids and grandkids that WILL be around to see how the world turns out in 50 years. BUT, the likelihood that I'll be around in even 25 years is probably less than 5% according to the actuaries. In the mean time, I guess I'll watch folks flail about in the way humans do when they perceive threats. It may not all be fun but it certainly will be interesting. YMMV
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:13 PM   #3
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Come at me, change! Give me your best shot!

I'm ready and waiting...
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:33 PM   #4
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All sorts of world-changing events could happen within 25 years, such as an asteroid striking the planet, but there's no real way to predict any particulars, such as time and place, in advance. Some plausible things I would like to see

Population growth will decelerate further.
AI will offer net benefits to mankind.
Genetic engineering will offer net benefits to mankind.
The War on Drugs will be scaled back.
The amount of work needed to FIRE will continue to decline.
Humans will land on Mars.
Quantum computing will become cheap enough to be included in portable devices.
Physician-assisted suicide will become accepted in the USA.
Ethical and moral standards will be the primary emphasis of religions.

Some things that seem possible that I would not like to see
A genetically engineered disease/weed/etc. escapes the lab.
Use of nuclear weapons.
US dollar decimated by inflation.
Government requires constant tracking of all people in the name of safety.
This FIRE board changes dramatically.
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Old 10-13-2018, 03:48 PM   #5
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Self-driving cars. I'm hoping they'll be practical BEFORE I reach the point where I can't drive any more.

Massive inflation. That would really hurt.

Long period of low inflation. I'd like that.

NASA suddenly realizes that they should send old guys to Mars, first, since we're sort of expendable compared to young, fit people. Not very likely, but I'd be first in line!
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Old 10-13-2018, 05:24 PM   #6
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Yes the self driving cars are definitely on my list of must haves.
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Old 10-13-2018, 05:45 PM   #7
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Interesting article, but this part caught my eye.....

"The EU has had a price on carbon for more than 10 years. It hasnít worked very well, partly because the prices that theyíve set have been extremely low. So it hasnít been particularly effective at lowering emissions."

The "cure" that this article embraces has not been effective because the price the citizens are paying is not high enough.

Maybe there is a better answer?
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Old 10-14-2018, 09:29 AM   #8
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I have a slightly more positive outlook on climate change than some folks, although it's also a lot more realistic than the view of the deniers. Here's my take:

We're rapidly nearing the end of the fossil fuel era. It took us over 100 years to get where we are, but it won't take that long to wind it down.

Every leading energy company is building solar and wind plants, and tearing down coal plants, as fast as they can. Major car manufacturers are selling a lot of hybrids and electric vehicles - not just Priuses (or is that Prii?) and Teslas. Whether certain politicians like it or not, coal is a dying industry. Rooftop solar is already mainstream, even up here in the Northeast. Hybrid and even electric ferries are being built. Large cargo ships are becoming more efficient, using cleaner fuels, and even experimenting with sails augmenting propulsion. Big companies are "going green" in all kinds of ways, not only because customer sentiment is leaning that way, but because it's often cheaper.

This trajectory toward renewable energy can be seen everywhere you turn. The trend is only gathering steam.

OK, so it'll take another 10-15 years before the majority of cars are electric. Once a big power plant, or a ship, is built, you need to run it long enough to get a return on the initial investment. Some people want to see a 180-degree turn overnight. That won't happen. But the change will still be remarkably fast, viewed in the longer term.

I think that, in my lifetime, we'll all look back on this time and wonder how we tolerated such a primitive technology as burning fossil fuels for energy.
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Old 10-14-2018, 01:21 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post
I have a slightly more positive outlook on climate change than some folks, although it's also a lot more realistic than the view of the deniers. Here's my take:

We're rapidly nearing the end of the fossil fuel era. It took us over 100 years to get where we are, but it won't take that long to wind it down.

Every leading energy company is building solar and wind plants, and tearing down coal plants, as fast as they can. Major car manufacturers are selling a lot of hybrids and electric vehicles - not just Priuses (or is that Prii?) and Teslas. Whether certain politicians like it or not, coal is a dying industry. Rooftop solar is already mainstream, even up here in the Northeast. Hybrid and even electric ferries are being built. Large cargo ships are becoming more efficient, using cleaner fuels, and even experimenting with sails augmenting propulsion. Big companies are "going green" in all kinds of ways, not only because customer sentiment is leaning that way, but because it's often cheaper.

This trajectory toward renewable energy can be seen everywhere you turn. The trend is only gathering steam.

OK, so it'll take another 10-15 years before the majority of cars are electric. Once a big power plant, or a ship, is built, you need to run it long enough to get a return on the initial investment. Some people want to see a 180-degree turn overnight. That won't happen. But the change will still be remarkably fast, viewed in the longer term.

I think that, in my lifetime, we'll all look back on this time and wonder how we tolerated such a primitive technology as burning fossil fuels for energy.
Well said CaptTom, I agree with your analysis/opinion.

VW
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Old 10-14-2018, 02:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
I

What about the dream home in Florida, on the beach, with your boat in the local marina.
The travel itinerary?
The all-tech home?
Children? Who? How Many? Education?
The Family? together? dispersed?
Food? In? Out? prepared? newfood?
Here to there? Cars? Scooters? Uber?
Shopping? Home? Where?
Jobs?
Workweek?

.................................................. ...............................................

From History:
Wars
Energy
Space
Plagues
Climate
Haves, Havenots
Government care
Populations


For today, my own concern is Climate Change, but if I were 55 and looking ahead, I think I'd be considering how to plan for changes that might be on the horizon.

I don't guess that this will engender much discussion, but perhaps, a back-of-the-mind note to be prepared for change... and maybe the fastest change in history.
For a glimpse of what is to come in the next 25 years, watch the following on Netflix:

Black Mirror (season 3, episode 4) - San Junipero

It goes well beyond self driving cars. Science fiction today can be reality in the future.
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