Best calculator for early retirement projections

[Offgrid Organic Farmer]

Everyone has been so helpful - thank you so much!

Do you include Social Security in your future income projections?

I think it really depends on how many decades you will be retired before you become eligible for SS.

I retired on pension [and portfolio income] 24 years before SS eligibility.

... I'm curious to hear what assumptions you all use in your models for Social Security, ...

I have only been retired for 17 years. For me SS is still in the distant future. I look at SS as an added bonus to my retirement.

 

[Scratchy]

Yeah forgot about that one. Use that one too. Allows for different inflation based % to be used for a range of expense categories.

I have used this one for years and have yet to find a better one. It is very simple yet comprehensive and allows for a lot of " what-if" playing around.
https://www.marketwatch.com/calculator/retirement/retirement-planning-calculator

This one is new to me and looks interesting. Does anyone know:
-under advanced settings investment returns-are inputs there referring to real or nominal returns?
-I see only one output graph under "held assets" which gives rather high numbers, what I would expect for average returns. I'm interested in the 5th or 10th percentile outcomes. Are those projections somewhere that I'm missing?

 

[Dtail]

This one is new to me and looks interesting. Does anyone know:
-under advanced settings investment returns-are inputs there referring to real or nominal returns?
-I see only one output graph under "held assets" which gives rather high numbers, what I would expect for average returns. I'm interested in the 5th or 10th percentile outcomes. Are those projections somewhere that I'm missing?

I use it for "what is the maximum spending" which effectively means at 100% success.
I am fairly sure the returns are nominal, based on how it matches up with other calculators.

 

[Scratchy]

I use it for "what is the maximum spending" which effectively means at 100% success.
I am fairly sure the returns are nominal, based on how it matches up with other calculators.

Thanks Dtail. Can't find the "what is the maximum spending" function, can you point me exactly?

 

[Dtail]

Thanks Dtail. Can't find the "what is the maximum spending" function, can you point me exactly?

First input all your information. Then under the "Retirement Spending" tab, you keep inputting higher expenses, until the message changes and states "you cannot afford to retire at age xx". The dpending chart will hint if you are close.

Any spending under that level is considered a 100% success.
Thus one has to play with the numbers to achieve this result, vs. Firecalc is more sophisticated in that it will provide one with the maximum spending without any guesswork.

 

[Scratchy]

First input all your information. Then under the "Retirement Spending" tab, you keep inputting higher expenses, until the message changes and states "you cannot afford to retire at age xx". The dpending chart will hint if you are close.

Any spending under that level is considered a 100% success.
Thus one has to play with the numbers to achieve this result, vs. Firecalc is more sophisticated in that it will provide one with the maximum spending without any guesswork.

Thanks Dtail, it's a clever exercise to run and the results are interesting.

It seems to me the question your exercise answers is:

"Given a known return on my investments, what is the most I can spend."

I am also interested in the answer to the question:

"Given a known spending level, what is the probability I will run out of money."

I don't know if the marketwatch calculator provides insight into that.

 

[Dtail]

Thanks Dtail, it's a clever exercise to run and the results are interesting.

It seems to me the question your exercise answers is:

"Given a known return on my investments, what is the most I can spend."

I am also interested in the answer to the question:

"Given a known spending level, what is the probability I will run out of money."

I don't know if the marketwatch calculator provides insight into that.

Yes correct on your first observation.
I don't believe Marketwatch gives the "run out of money" results. That is why for me it is more of a secondary use calculator, but Firecalc, Fidelity and others do provide that analysis.

OTOH, if you flip it around, if your spending is below the max @100%, you theoretically will never run out of money.

 

[ncbill]

Even though retired, I still use Fidelity and just change my retirement date to next year to still receive worthwhile results, since it is not using sequential results anyway.

As to eMoney, I do not have any managed funds at Fidelity and my rep still showed me eMoney to play around with. Perhaps one has to be a Private Client (>1mm)? Anyway, the program is still in testing and not ready for accurate results yet.

There are more powerful retirement software programs out there that are not free (~a few hundred bucks annually) but would still be a bargain compared paying a 1% AUM fee.

 

[Dtail]

There are more powerful retirement software programs out there that are not free (~a few hundred bucks annually) but would still be a bargain compared paying a 1% AUM fee.

Which of the pay calculators would you recommend?

 

[CardsFan]

Which of the pay calculators would you recommend?

I am curious, as well.

But then again, I am retired, have a low WR and have no intention of ever going back to work. At this point, I don't need a calculator to tell me I am doing this all wrong.

So, Never mind.

 

[Jerry1]

Thanks, everyone, for the additional information on SS assumptions. Yes, I overlooked the major consideration that retiring very early has a major impact on the SS benefit calculation (i.e. many years of counting zeros for annual SS income). Now, I am trying to re-estimate my SS benefit assuming various early retirement ages, but the SS calculator on the government website will only let me assume taking SS at 62 (it won't let me assume delaying taking SS at 67 or 70, if I input the age to stop working at less than 62). Off to search for a SS calculator that will do so!

Try this one.

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html

I’ve not used it but it’s been referenced here many times. You’ll put in all your earnings and zeroes for the years you expect to be retired before collecting SS.

 

[Dtail]

I am curious, as well.

But then again, I am retired, have a low WR and have no intention of ever going back to work. At this point, I don't need a calculator to tell me I am doing this all wrong.

So, Never mind.

I am retired too, but love playing with the calculators.

 

[pb4uski]

I AM getting it....example:when I test a portfolio of 100% "us stock market" the returns show data back to 1972.Which isn't ideal but whatever

When I do 50% "us stock market" and 50% "emerging markets" I get this:
Monte Carlo simulation results for 10000 portfolios with $1,000,000 initial portfolio balance using available historical returns data from Jan 1995 to Dec 2018.

Are YOU getting it?

Try US Stock Market and 10 Year Treasury... that has data back to 1972.

It looks like that for some asset classes the history is lacking but I suspect that the history is only used for determining the return and variability assumptions. You can input your own assumptions as to return and variablilty using the Parameterized Returns Simulation Model

 

[akl432]

Try this one.

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html

I’ve not used it but it’s been referenced here many times. You’ll put in all your earnings and zeroes for the years you expect to be retired before collecting SS.

Jerry1 - Thank you!

Everyone (including Jerry1)- Thank you for the additional information on Social Security longevity. I decided to use a 25% reduction for my assumed Social Security benefit.

I hope others find this discussion helpful, as well!

 

[akl432]

As I have been plugging in different potential retirement ages into the Fidelity detailed calculator, another question occurred to me that I wanted to ask the sage minds on this board:

How did you pick your target number for ending assets for the end of your plan? For instance, using the Fidelity detailed calculator, if I assume a retirement age of 50, I would have about $2.2M in assets remaining at the end of my plan (age 90), assuming Fidelity's "significantly below average market conditions" scenario. If I retire at age 45, I would have about $1.0M in assets at the end of the plan.

I am single, never married, and unsure if marriage will ever find me (I am already 39), so leaving any money for heirs is not a consideration at this point.

I am interested to hear what number others target for their end of plan (in my case, age 90). Obviously, if one aims for a lower value for ending assets, one could retire sooner. If you don't plan to leave money for heirs, what number do you target?

 

[COcheesehead]

As I have been plugging in different potential retirement ages into the Fidelity detailed calculator, another question occurred to me that I wanted to ask the sage minds on this board:

How did you pick your target number for ending assets for the end of your plan? For instance, using the Fidelity detailed calculator, if I assume a retirement age of 50, I would have about $2.2M in assets remaining at the end of my plan (age 90), assuming Fidelity's "significantly below average market conditions" scenario. If I retire at age 45, I would have about $1.0M in assets at the end of the plan.

I am single, never married, and unsure if marriage will ever find me (I am already 39), so leaving any money for heirs is not a consideration at this point.

I am interested to hear what number others target for their end of plan (in my case, age 90). Obviously, if one aims for a lower value for ending assets, one could retire sooner. If you don't plan to leave money for heirs, what number do you target?

I built the budget around planned/expected expenses, plus a healthy amount of fun money (travel) and a bit extra and then 30% on top of that for when the sh*t hits the fan. I don't pay much attention to the ending money, I just want enough for living.

 

[akl432]

I built the budget around planned/expected expenses, plus a healthy amount of fun money (travel) and a bit extra and then 30% on top of that for when the sh*t hits the fan. I don't pay much attention to the ending money, I just want enough for living.

Thanks for the info. How do you determine your planned retirement date; do you pick your date based on when your ending money amount in your projection at the end of the plan is around $0, or a higher amount?

 

[COcheesehead]

Thanks for the info. How do you determine your planned retirement date; do you pick your date based on when your ending money amount in your projection at the end of the plan is around $0, or a higher amount?

I picked my date based on some things happening at work. I sold my business and I have a commitment to the new owners until December 31st, 2020. So that is my end date, which by pure luck also happens to be a Friday.

My ending money is still in the low millions, but I am sure I can find a way to blow the dough somewhere along the line.

 

[gwraigty]

One way to look at this is that not including SS is being conservative. If you can retire without SS in your assumptions, then whatever you do get will be great.

If you will need SS to retire, then you have some work to do. At 39, you will have a lot of years that you did not make money. You'll need a tool that allows you to do a proper estimate. Once you have that, I would reduce that number by 25% and see where you're at.

I think others have also wondered about this as well, in trying to project many years with no work history. As an FYI, I quit working at the end of 1991 at 28 years old. Except for a few years of paying self-employment tax when I was an eBay seller, I've got more zeros than not at this point. Yet, my SS estimate on my work record continues to increase just due to inflation.

 

[COcheesehead]

I think others have also wondered about this as well, in trying to project many years with no work history. As an FYI, I quit working at the end of 1991 at 28 years old. Except for a few years of paying self-employment tax when I was an eBay seller, I've got more zeros than not at this point. Yet, my SS estimate on my work record continues to increase just due to inflation.

The SS calculator posted above allows you to input zeros so it should give you a much more accurate estimate of your SS than what your SS report says today. That is based on the assumption you continue to work.

 

[gwraigty]

I think others have also wondered about this as well, in trying to project many years with no work history. As an FYI, I quit working at the end of 1991 at 28 years old. Except for a few years of paying self-employment tax when I was an eBay seller, I've got more zeros than not at this point. Yet, my SS estimate on my work record continues to increase just due to inflation.

The SS calculator posted above allows you to input zeros so it should give you a much more accurate estimate of your SS than what your SS report says today. That is based on the assumption you continue to work.

I wasn't asking for myself. Just trying to help others. As I said, I haven't worked for a paycheck since 1991 and I don't intend to in future. I believe I've seen others post their concern in SS threads about how not working for many years might affect their SS payout in future. Some might have even thought their SS payout might go down because of multiple years of zeros between early retirement and collecting. My point is that there is no need to be concerned about this.

 

[ncbill]

I wasn't asking for myself. Just trying to help others. As I said, I haven't worked for a paycheck since 1991 and I don't intend to in future. I believe I've seen others post their concern in SS threads about how not working for many years might affect their SS payout in future. Some might have even thought their SS payout might go down because of multiple years of zeros between early retirement and collecting. My point is that there is no need to be concerned about this.

IIRC, once you get beyond the second bend point another year of earnings doesn't add much to the monthly check.

 

[gwraigty]

IIRC, once you get beyond the second bend point another year of earnings doesn't add much to the monthly check.

I doubt I ever got past the first bend point. I worked full-time from age 16 through age 28. I was a fast food minimum wage worker for the first half of those years and a low-paid office worker the second half. My top annual wages were just over $16K. I find it incredible that they estimate my monthly benefit on my record to be worth over $700. No worries. Spousal benefit for me, when the time comes.

 

[COcheesehead]

I doubt I ever got past the first bend point. I worked full-time from age 16 through age 28. I was a fast food minimum wage worker for the first half of those years and a low-paid office worker the second half. My top annual wages were just over $16K. I find it incredible that they estimate my monthly benefit on my record to be worth over $700. No worries. Spousal benefit for me, when the time comes.

Adding in my zeros from early retirement my check drops by almost that amount.

 

[2018]

Folks, wanted to give you a WARNING on Fidelity's "Retirement Score". I have Fidelity and Schwab accounts. First, I use a new tool Fidelity now offers called "Full View" and I have it import the Schwab positions into the view so it shows a complete list of all account and investments asset positions daily. You can then plug (or link) other investments like real estate, mortgages, other misc investments and it provides a really good report on asset allocations, and net worth trends. There's other stuff too, but that's what I use it for.



This leads to the Retirement Score tool. It will use the investment data from Full View and thus has a complete view of all investment positions. Now, the MAJOR ERROR they have: if you plug in "additional income" and use a one-time lump sum (like a planned real estate sale, inheritance, etc.) it skews the results and causes the the score to go to "150+". Fidelity tech support has been made aware and working on a solution (as of Feb 2019). Right now the only way to correct this is to amortize the lump sump into a monthly income for 1yr. So, $120k lump sum has to be put in as $10k monthly for 1 yr. This is the only way we've been able to get a clean result.


I use Firecalc too, but like the Fidelity tool for modeling scenarios with certain assets being plugged in or not, so I can test options.