cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Is that like PE/10 only 10% better? 
Doom and gloom SWR based on 1965-1982
- Thread starter amt
- Start date
bow-tie
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2004
- Messages
- 688
Good Lord, ***** is windy. I admire having passion, but damn....
I have a problem with the premise that started this roll: Namely that you shouldn't worry about trying to establish SWR to any high degree of certainity because of variables that could intervene. Now I might agree that trying to determine if the correct SWR rate is 3.14159265 or 3.14159266 to the .001 confidence level (assuming a normal non-truncated distribution) makes little sense, but the logic bothers me. It seems a bit like saying why give up smoking, because you may die in a car accident.
db
db
J
John Galt
Guest
Well, let's face it. The big fear is running out of money while you are still alive. Knowing more about the
circumstances and timing of our departure would
surely make things easier. Having said that, unless
you opt for the "Hemingway exit", there necessarily
will be a lot of guesswork. Life is just a big crapshoot,
but that is part of what makes things interesting.
Maybe some of you would not like to know the details of your demise. I certainly would, but as I have said before,
God made the world round so that we couldn't see
too far ahead.
John Galt
circumstances and timing of our departure would
surely make things easier. Having said that, unless
you opt for the "Hemingway exit", there necessarily
will be a lot of guesswork. Life is just a big crapshoot,
but that is part of what makes things interesting.
Maybe some of you would not like to know the details of your demise. I certainly would, but as I have said before,
God made the world round so that we couldn't see
too far ahead.
John Galt
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The question is how much accuracy is required?
I think that it is probably enough to get the initial SWR into the right ballpark and then use a system with feedback (e.g. Gummy's "Sensible Withdrawals"). The base rate in one of these variable systems more than accounts for the worst historical data and the variable portion lets you enjoy the more than likely "extra" returns. Using feedback allows the system to cope with changing conditions.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Determining a reasonable withdrawal rate from a ballpark perspective and periodically adjusting your plan to make sure you arent over or under withdrawing makes perfect sense.
But that isnt what is being proposed here by the travelling troll.
He thinks, or wants us to think he thinks, that he can determine asset valuations and whether to own them or not.
The little "system" has already been wrong in a big way twice in 10 years. But that doesnt seem to reduce the silliness level.
There IS a good reason why he's been thrown off of most discussion boards.
But that isnt what is being proposed here by the travelling troll.
He thinks, or wants us to think he thinks, that he can determine asset valuations and whether to own them or not.
The little "system" has already been wrong in a big way twice in 10 years. But that doesnt seem to reduce the silliness level.
There IS a good reason why he's been thrown off of most discussion boards.
This thread includes good substantive discussions.
http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=saferate_board;action=display;num=1080235218
http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=saferate_board;action=display;num=1080235218
This makes much more sense than obsessing over events that can't be controlled. I have a rather large slush fund in my budget just for unusual events. It means I don't have to freak if the market drops. And I'm well-diversified, so some part of my portfolio is usually doing OK. Beats worrying about valuation or whatever.
Of course, the important thing is to actually pay attention to the feedback. Sometimes you have to whack yourself in the head to pay attention to negative feedback. Being an ostrich doesn't work.
arrete - happy with travel or Canasta
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Yes, that is another good point. I'm already much more diversified than the S&P500 and CDs. When I retire and can more efficiently diversify a bit more I will do so. The reason for that is the portfolio will be larger and so the little "bits" of diversified stuff (i.e. 5% here and 5% there) will be larger in absolute term giving lower costs per unit plus my tax situation will be much better.
Yeah, I think it will be hard to just adjust by the "seat of the pants" and that's why I intend to actually grind out the calculation once a year on the growth of the portfolio, transfer the calculated amount to the fixed income buffer (FIB) and then take at most "one year's" amount out of the FIB for that year (i.e. if the FIB is 5 years money then spend no more than 1/5 that year). The FIB and the averaging will reduce the volatility of the yearly income. It would be far too easy to just coast with the same withdrawal rate unless you actually grind the numbers.
In my case when I FIRE it will be the decider on how much time is spent in Thailand/Eastern Europe/South America and Japan/North America/Western Europe.
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Oh, I know that from a long and bitter experience on the Motley Fool board.
My post was in reply to db.I (and a number of others) at first thought he was just another typical math challenged FIRE-wannabe and so I spent time trying to teach him how the math of the calculations works, a bit about probability, etc. It then became apparent that he wasn't confused about this but instead refused to acknowledge the difference between past versus future, returns versus withdrawal rates, average rates versus absolute minimum rates, medians versus means, etc.
I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945). Who knows whether the h@cus story is closer to the real one (guy who tried to RE with way too llittle and went mad with the worry) or the jwr1945 story (REd guy who is ~60 - i.e. b.1945 - and gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards). Stranger things have happened in the 25 or so years that I've been hanging out on the internet.
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Tha is an interesting idea. However, too often one realizes that he must add aother name to the already long list of countries where an American is walking around with a sign on his back that says-"Kidnap me!"
Who knows how it will look in 5 years?
Mikey
unclemick
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
The JWR data I looked at (I'm not a math cat) pretty much convinced me that pulling HSWR/SWR out of context of a specific data set and using it willy nilly to draw conclusions generally was dangerous.
SEC yield of MY portfolio plus some small look back variable (1-2%) and adjustments along the way - including age related.
Four Pillars didn't convince me to change. But the JWR data convinced me that
tips weren't for this ER and Bernstein convinced me that slice and dice also sucked(in my case) and individual stocks were the way to go for a reasonable (15%) portion of my ER.
Portfolio value and SWR are not Relavent in my case. The Norwegian widow and DeGaul are.
SEC yield of MY portfolio plus some small look back variable (1-2%
) and adjustments along the way - including age related. Four Pillars didn't convince me to change. But the JWR data convinced me that
tips weren't for this ER and Bernstein convinced me that slice and dice also sucked(in my case) and individual stocks were the way to go for a reasonable (15%) portion of my ER.
Portfolio value and SWR are not Relavent in my case. The Norwegian widow and DeGaul are.
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Well, for one thing I'm not an "American" in the US citizen sense. I do have citizenship in one of the countries of the Americas though (amongst others). Unfortunately for me that's the country that "Americans" try to disguise themselves as when they travel by sewing the flags onto their packs, jackets, etc.
However, a lot of it depends on how one chooses to live. A simple quiet life without ostentation should attract little attention. Though you are correct that there are areas that one would be well advised to avoid or travel carefully and quickly through. Some of those are in the US.
unclemick
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Mexican businessmen getting kidnapped for ransom was the rage a while back. We Americans having a slight(heh heh) tendency toward isolationist views - tend to forget the long tradition thru history.
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
You probably are a very inoffensive eco-traveler. But be assured that if you could be valuable to anyone- and in a country where $10 per day is a lot, who isn't- people will know.
Mikey
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Actually more of a very LBYM traveller who realizes that if he wants to see the inside of a Holiday Inn he could do it without the air fare. You are right that in many parts of the world where "$10 per day is a lot" that we are wealthy even without the FIRE stash. However, if you keep a reasonably low profile you will most likely be safe. Just like putting a lock on your front door at home doesn't prevent someone from breaking in. It only convinces them to go for easier targets.
I've visited people in Detroit in the past who warned us that if the car broke down to not get out of the car under any circumstances. Wait for the police to come. There were areas in downtown that you could be "reasonably" safe walking but only within the area of a few blocks that were heavily patrolled by the police. Something that many who live in first world countries generally don't have to deal with.
If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free. We have a small but knowledgeable core of posters who don't have to worry about their threads being hijacked by attention-craving trolls. :
raddr-pages.com/forums
If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free. We have a small but knowledgeable core of posters who don't have to worry about their threads being hijacked by attention-craving trolls. :
raddr-pages.com/forums
I think you're on to something there raddr....
Hoco-Mania will no doubt spur the creation of several more "*****-free" sites.
intercst
Re: Doom and gloom SWR based on 1965-1982does
I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free.
Even our critics acknowledge that neither JWR1945 nor myself engage in abusive posting practices. What we are saying is highly controversial, that's for sure. But why do people feel a need to be protected from exposure to it?
A good number of people from time to time have expressed interest in hearing us out. But those people want to talk substance, not this other stuff. Why can't those who do not have an interest in what we are saying just ignore the threads in which it is discussed?
I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free.
Even our critics acknowledge that neither JWR1945 nor myself engage in abusive posting practices. What we are saying is highly controversial, that's for sure. But why do people feel a need to be protected from exposure to it?
A good number of people from time to time have expressed interest in hearing us out. But those people want to talk substance, not this other stuff. Why can't those who do not have an interest in what we are saying just ignore the threads in which it is discussed?
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
LOL - yeah, I think we can make a positive ID, especially with my co-administrator Ataloss constantly on guard for hoco/JWR-speak.
And not since junior-high have you boys had so much fun!
Raddr, the link isn't working for me. Is this the address?
http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/yabb/raddr-pages.com/forums
