Dow...14,000...next?

[AndrewJackson]

Did anyone see CNBC near the end of the day today? It was very disturbing. They had a breaking news flash across the screen that stated:

"Stocks rally as disappointing jobs report fuels speculation of more fed buying"

So lets get this clear. Bad economic numbers lead to more fed qe which will ultimately drive up stock prices? Who knows where this will end up going. If we repeat the same cycle as 00/08, then we probably have less than 9 months before the wheels start falling off. My guess is we reach an all time high of 1600 on the spx before reality hits.

 

[MichaelB]

That's why I don't watch CNBC.

 

[REWahoo]

That's why I don't watch CNBC.

+1

 

[obgyn65]

My guess is 15,000 in the next year. I still won't buy into it.

Whaddya think? UP? Down?
How about a guess for March 1?

 

[timeasterday]

So lets get this clear. Bad economic numbers lead to more fed qe which will ultimately drive up stock prices? Who knows where this will end up going. If we repeat the same cycle as 00/08, then we probably have less than 9 months before the wheels start falling off. My guess is we reach an all time high of 1600 on the spx before reality hits.

Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.

 

[obgyn65]

This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.

Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.

 

[timeasterday]

This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.

Yep, I may get burned later but I still put money into it. As of right now 39% of my portfolio worth is total US market and 39% is international market. I'm probably a bit higher on the international side than many people.

 

[obgyn65]

I fear the next big crisis as the federal government won't be able to give bailouts and payouts.

Yep, I may get burned later but I still put money into it. As of right now 39% of my portfolio worth is total US market and 39% is international market. I'm probably a bit higher on the international side than many people.

 

[REWahoo]

I fear the next big crisis as the federal government won't be able to give bailouts and payouts.

Stick to CD's and 'doctoring' and you'll be fine.

 

[donheff]

Unfortunately, the sequestration and then the end of the continuing resolution and subsequent brief Federal shutdown will probably scare the markets down to 13500 or 13000. Would be a good time for some market timing but then the dodo-brains would arrive at a grand bargain driving us to 16000 instead. I guess I will sit tight and rebalance when appropriate.

 

[okapi]

I"ve seen this movie before.

 

[timeasterday]

On the bright side my portfolio is only $10K away from the annual goal I set for my birthday - which isn't until September.

 

[truenorth418]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 13,000 again before 15,000. But the stock market is supposed to increase, so I suppose we'll get to 15,000 eventually.

 

[csgraff]

Well, all that QE money has to go somewhere. Hence stocks go up.

This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.

I think about this alot, too. The Fed's created a scenario to encourage stock buying, yet still stock funds had poor inflows, while bond funds had strong inflows.

Lately we've been hearing lots of warnings about the bond market. I wonder if that, combined with some highs on the Dow will bring money into stocks from bonds?

That scenario seems somewhat logical, but plenty of opposing scenarios seem logical, too. At least its not summer.

 

[Trawler]

For Fun Lets ask the Golden 8 ball where Dow is headed :

Will the Dow hit 15,000 this year? The Stars say no.
Will the Dow drop below 13,000? Indications say yes.
Will the Dow end the year up? Cannot fortell now.
Will the Dow set a new alltime high this year? Positively.
Should I take a years expenses today? Yes

Please feel free to post any questions for the Great Golden 8 ball any market questions.
Wonder if I should develop the New Golden 8 ball Market Predictor and become rich selling it. LOL

 

[Midpack]

That's why I don't watch CNBC.

+2. I once watched CNBC exclusively every weekday morning while working out-shaving/showering-eating breakfast, but I never watch it any more. 5% news, 95% fill - much of it unintentionally misinformation.

 

[bbbamI]

I took a little profit as my AA was off just a few hairs.

Can't pass up hairy profits don't ya know.

 

[photoguy]

Did anyone see CNBC near the end of the day today? It was very disturbing. They had a breaking news flash across the screen that stated:

"Stocks rally as disappointing jobs report fuels speculation of more fed buying"

I think it's a case of "I need to make something up that's sound intelligent" as opposed to admitting I just don't know.

 

[Meadbh]

This is my view also. The increase in the DOW numbers is artificial. This is one of the reasons why I won't buy into it.

Cesarian sections are artificial too, but I'll bet you do them every day.

 

[BigNick]

Well, I'm 15K Euros down on the week, all due to the Euro continuing to be insanely strong. When it hit $1.34 my bank asked if they should convert some cash from EUR to USD and I said yes, it can't rise much more (plus, I was about to buy a USD-denominated fund); it's now $1.36. We have a couple of inheritances coming in GBP which has dropped almost 10% against the EUR in the last 3 months. For the last 18 months everyone has been very rude about the Euro, but it seems to be doing better (from its point of view!) then ever... it's even gone above the floor of 1.20 against the Swiss franc that the Swiss imposed when the Euro crisis was at its height in the fall of 2011.

 

[audreyh1]

+2. I once watched CNBC exclusively every weekday morning while working out-shaving/showering-eating breakfast, but I never watch it any more. 5% news, 95% fill - much of it unintentionally misinformation.

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that it was actually intentional misinformation (or at least intentionally misleading) - a.k.a spin. Haven't watched since.

 

[ripper1]

Well, this is about the time the predictors and book writers come out of the closet to sell either gloom and doom or happy days are here again. Recently that nut bag Harry Dent has predicted a big downturn in summer of 2013. He is saying we are going to 3000. This is from the same guy that said we were going to 40,000 a few years ago.

 

[ejman]

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that it was actually intentional misinformation (or at least intentionally misleading) - a.k.a spin. Haven't watched since.

Probably so. I watched it religiously when I started ER 10 years ago. (had to keep an eye on my nest egg you know and these folks know what's going on). After some months I realized that all that was accomplished was my blood pressure went up. Damn little useful information ever offered. I haven't watched it for years now and I certainly don't miss it one bit. My NW has continued to go up quite nicely without their tender mercies.

 

[jclarksnakes]

I only watch CNBC to see Maria Bartiromo.

 

[golfnut]

I only watch CNBC to see Maria Bartiromo.

Why?