I didn't say it... but great market lately!

clifp said:
What is troubling to me Brewer is that equity levels are within 15% of all time levels. Economic activity is certainly better than it was 2 years ago, but I dare say it looks much worse than it did back in 2007.

I also think that financial crisis caused structural damage to many institutions, mainly governments but also banks, and the housing industry that are decades away from being repaired. I think it is almost certain that austerity measures that are being enacted at all levels of government both here and in Europe, will cause a short term contraction in income. While I am very happy to see the measures cause I think they are the right thing to do, I am worried that in the short-term they will further depress demand and possibly employment.

So on an absolute basis I much happier purchasing SP @1500 back in 2007
because I think the outlook for 5 year corporate earning from 2007-2012 looks much better than 2011-2016. (Obviously with perfect hindsight, I'd understand that SP500 earning were really a house of cards back then.).

On the other hand on a relative basis with bonds/CD earning 2-3%, cash earning nothing, real estate on life support, stocks look cheap. But I wonder if it is not an illusion. :(
Click to expand...

Well, will not belabor the point, but vs. 2007 a lot of the leverage has come out of the system and the economy seems to be doing a better job of allocating capital to the "real" economy. Total US GDP is (IIRC) at an all time high, and without many of the imbalances of a few years ago. Could we hit an air pocket? Sure. But I think the downside is lowe given the clearout we had.
 
Futures down this morning. Middle east problems and oil the topic of discussion this morning on the networks. More of the same.............

Better load up on meds.:-\
 
It's to be expected that stocks will drop with this amount of bad news on TV from a major oil-producer. The Dow is off 1% in an hour. But then why did it rise 0.6% yesterday, when not much was different? It could be that there is absolutely no relationship between the two. The market is more complex than that, and we were overdue for some profit-taking after the last 3-4 weeks.
 
I love these threads . The last two I took as hints to rebalance and so far it has worked out great .:)
 
obgyn65 said:
Can you believe it W2R - I am still 100% in bonds, CDs, and money market equivalent. Last year I should have tried to buy some shares for the first time in my life. However, there has been too much going on at work, and I did not have much time to focus on this unfortunately.
Click to expand...

Some folks don't need the stress of equities..........however, there's always....pppppssssssssssstttttttttt......Wellsley..........;)
 
I cannot believe my good fortune. The ER forum now has two sure-FIRE leading indicators for when to buy (Dex) and when to sell (W2R). Thanks everbody!
 
I was smiling to myself when I read this last night - mostly because I was thinking the exact same thing W2R was posting - recent market performance seemed too good to be true and I was topping my previous high liquid net worth by quite a margin.

Of course, today we're reminded of what happens to things that seem too good to be true...
 
ziggy29 said:
Too late now... you are the most reliable contrarian indicator I've ever come across. :)
Click to expand...

Thank you. :LOL: Maybe I should start writing a subscription newsletter to make some money off my "Wheee!" moments. If successful it could provide a nice little ESR income supplement. :)
 
I saw a chart showing the Obama runup versus the Bush runup. It was a scary graph. Obama has outperformed Bush by 3 years. Time for the tinfoil hat!
 
I was heavily in 3x leveraged ETFs... And the one day the wife ran off with my car keys with etrade security token attached.. arrgh
 
W2R said:
Just think of the buying opportunities if this continues! :)
Click to expand...

Down $19k today. Ugh. As my mother would always say to me, "I hope you're proud of yourself."
 
On a day like this, I compared my performance to the indices to see how I fared.

Dow: -1.44%. NASDAQ: -2.74%. S&P500: -2.05%.

OK, I don't do badly at all. Thank goodness, last week I unloaded the few 100's shares of 3X leveraged ETFs I have left. They went down -8% today!

And look at Wellesley! It went down -0.18%. Super low beta!
 
NW-Bound said:
On a day like this, I compared my performance to the indices to see how I fared.

Dow: -1.44%. NASDAQ: -2.74%. S&P500: -2.05%.

OK, I don't do badly at all. Thank goodness, last week I unloaded the few 100's shares of 3X leveraged ETFs I have left. They went down -8% today!

And look at Wellesley! It went down -0.18%. Super low beta!
Click to expand...


I was down 1.72% not counting my GNMA fund or my CDs. I assume PenFed CD were up today right :).
 
Well, as my beta is not as low as that of Wellesley to brag about, all I am willing to say is that mine is somewhere between that of the Dow and Nasdaq. :angel:
 
Only down .69% yesterday, 40/60. My taxable accounts that I live off of had reached a new high on Friday.:whistle:
 
haha said:
Are you doing this, or is this a joke? If you are serious, can you tell us more about your thought processes?

Ha
Click to expand...

No, it was a joke. But see what happened? I stayed in and the market dropped almost 180.
 
The market dropped 180points! I'm moving into tinfoil and scotch tape today....
 
I'm an indexer, so it's time to grip on the roller coaster a little tighter :(
 
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