Originally Posted by Ready
Maybe I'm missing something, but since they specifically spell out their assumptions - 8% equities, 5.5% bonds, 20% standard deviation - what numbers are they using to generate the tables if not these numbers? And if they are using these numbers, how are they getting to these failure rates? They are coming up with higher failure rates than Firecalc, which includes the runs during the great depression.
I don't have a clue if they are accurate, or just winging it, since it is not important to me. Firecalc is definitely not the final answer to everything, it uses one historical sequence, in other words what really happened to one economy at one stage of its development and at a certain time of history. These people likely used a Monte Carlo, but again, I don't know and I don't really care. When I posted "it is spelled out", I just meant that they wrote the words that I transcribed. It's a sales document, not a scientific paper.
Maybe they are just liars and are really using a Ouija board?