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Relying on the market timing gurus
03-07-2008, 07:27 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 332
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Relying on the market timing gurus
One of the purported best is Bob Brinker's Marketimer.
From his November 2007 letter to subscribers:
S & P 500 1549.
"The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in decidedly favorable territory as we move closer to the winter season. Based on the model's current readings, we expect that the cyclical bull market that began shortly after our major buy signal on March 11, 2003 .... has further to go in terms of percentage gains and duration. We continue to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market ..... in the months ahead.
Despite the efforts of the financial media to suggest that a recession is on the way, Marketimer continues to regard the risk of recession as very low."
Despite knowledgeable people like Bogle saying it is impossible to successfully time the market these people continue to have legions of followers who buy there product. Me included. I think I will reduce my budget for "investment expenses" by $185.
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03-07-2008, 08:11 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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Despite the newsletters name, I don't consider Brinker to be a marketimer in the usual sense. He has alternated between buy and DCA with no sell signals since around 2000. Hmm...my renewal is due this month.......................
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03-07-2008, 08:15 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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i watch a daily video podcast that is more accurate than any paid for publication i've ever seen
ditto for the 20 or so financial/stock blogs i read
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03-07-2008, 08:20 PM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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If you really want to do some research in this area I'd start with:
Blog - CXOAG Investing Notes
They report on guru's as well as tons of other ideas. They find some ideas that do work. Most of the timers results are found to be of little value. They have a guru rating section. I think this is a quite amazing wbsite.
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03-07-2008, 08:20 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cashflo2u2
"The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in decidedly favorable territory as we move closer to the winter season. Based on the model's current readings, we expect that the cyclical bull market that began shortly after our major buy signal on March 11, 2003 .... has further to go in terms of percentage gains and duration. We continue to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market ..... in the months ahead.
Despite the efforts of the financial media to suggest that a recession is on the way, Marketimer continues to regard the risk of recession as very low."
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Wow!!! Now THAT is the first encouraging thing I have read in quite a while. It would sure be nice if he is right, and we end up having more of that great bull market in the months ahead.
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-08-2008, 07:18 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn
If you really want to do some research in this area I'd start with:
Blog - CXOAG Investing Notes
They report on guru's as well as tons of other ideas. They find some ideas that do work. Most of the timers results are found to be of little value. They have a guru rating section. I think this is a quite amazing wbsite.
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The Guru Grades was a fun read. Isn't it fascinating that the composite % right was essentially 50/50 at 47.9%? And I suspect there are others that are not included that would bring the average down even more. Since he was mentioned in this thread, they show Bob Brinker at 53% - how much is that batting average worth? Wouldn't monkeys with darts be cheaper and just as accurate?
Remember Elaine Garzarelli? And the Elliott Wave? And the Beardstown Ladies? When will we ever learn?
The only investor I can think of who has never been discredited over his entire career is Warren Buffett - although I've never owned any Berkshire. I concluded that I should continue to follow William Bernstein, John Bogle, Scott Burns, Larry Swedroe and ignore the prognosticators.
Thanks for the laugh...hilarious.
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Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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03-08-2008, 07:31 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Market pundits, gurus and other "experts" have repeatedly been shown to be no better than buy and hold and usually much worse. Yes, you will occasionally find someone that truly "beat the market" (however they define it) for 10 or more years but their risk of "winning" in the next year is no better than the rest of the crowd.
There are thousands of newsletter, analysts and pundits that are always looking for a way to trumpet their success. If they were really any good at picking stocks and timing the market, why are they wanting to share their genius with us? The answer is that they make their money in fees from the gullible investing public and not their investment prowess.
I can tell you if I ever devine the perfect "model" I won't tell a soul. I will just quietly amass a fortune larger than Warren Buffet's.
I must confess that I have wasted thousands of dollars in my past life on various newsletters. I eventually figured out that they don't know any more than I do but they sure make it sound like they do.
FWIW -- I used to be a rabid technical analysis fan. Fortunately, I didn't lose too much money before I figured out that TA was a way to sound very sophisticated in describing what happened in the market but was totally useless as a predictor.
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The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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03-08-2008, 08:27 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,592
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Just reread my Feb. MarketTimer:
Quote:
It appears that the technical definition of recession rests with whether or not the first two quarters of 2008 show negative real growth. Even if that were to occur, we believe any such pause in economic growth would be brief and mild, with a recovery process underway by the second half of the year.
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Says a bad recession during a presidential election year is unheard of. As seen by latest govenment hand-outs.
The $$ he's made me (pulled 2/3's in Jan 2000; back in March 2003) will pay for a lifetime of $185 fees. But he's human, and has made - and will make - mistakes.
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FIRE'd since 2005
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03-08-2008, 08:42 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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I prefer my porn to have lesbians...
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Have Funds, Will Retire
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03-08-2008, 12:35 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,098
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i thought i was the only one lol
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03-08-2008, 01:46 PM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Just reread my Feb. MarketTimer:
Says a bad recession during a presidential election year is unheard of.
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I'm sure Bush will even find a way to screw up that record.
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Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-08-2008, 02:50 PM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Leesburg, VA
Posts: 904
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
I'm sure Bush will even find a way to screw up that record.
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That's why I'm not voting for him this year. Oh, wait...
Mike D.
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03-08-2008, 07:40 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
The $$ he's made me (pulled 2/3's in Jan 2000; back in March 2003) will pay for a lifetime of $185 fees. But he's human, and has made - and will make - mistakes.
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me too....good assessment. On further consideration, I just noticed the title is "RELYING on....gurus" That "relying" part is what causes the problem. I couldn't be comfortable relying in any single point recommendation.
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03-08-2008, 08:09 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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there was one i subscribed to for a little while that concentrated mostly on Fidelity Select funds. back in the late 1990's i read about a guy who made a ton of money buying and selling into them. it's not that hard. around 50 years ago someone came out with a model that still works today that says when each sector goes up in the economic cycle. forgot the whole thing but it starts with tech and ends with the bigger heavy industry companies.
pretty sure Cramer and Bill O'Neill mention it in their books
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