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Relying on the market timing gurus
Old 03-07-2008, 08:27 PM   #1
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Relying on the market timing gurus

One of the purported best is Bob Brinker's Marketimer.
From his November 2007 letter to subscribers:

S & P 500 1549.

"The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in decidedly favorable territory as we move closer to the winter season. Based on the model's current readings, we expect that the cyclical bull market that began shortly after our major buy signal on March 11, 2003 .... has further to go in terms of percentage gains and duration. We continue to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market ..... in the months ahead.

Despite the efforts of the financial media to suggest that a recession is on the way, Marketimer continues to regard the risk of recession as very low."



Despite knowledgeable people like Bogle saying it is impossible to successfully time the market these people continue to have legions of followers who buy there product. Me included. I think I will reduce my budget for "investment expenses" by $185.
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:11 PM   #2
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Despite the newsletters name, I don't consider Brinker to be a marketimer in the usual sense. He has alternated between buy and DCA with no sell signals since around 2000. Hmm...my renewal is due this month.......................
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:15 PM   #3
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i watch a daily video podcast that is more accurate than any paid for publication i've ever seen

ditto for the 20 or so financial/stock blogs i read
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:20 PM   #4
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If you really want to do some research in this area I'd start with:

Blog - CXOAG Investing Notes

They report on guru's as well as tons of other ideas. They find some ideas that do work. Most of the timers results are found to be of little value. They have a guru rating section. I think this is a quite amazing wbsite.
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:20 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by cashflo2u2 View Post
"The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in decidedly favorable territory as we move closer to the winter season. Based on the model's current readings, we expect that the cyclical bull market that began shortly after our major buy signal on March 11, 2003 .... has further to go in terms of percentage gains and duration. We continue to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market ..... in the months ahead.

Despite the efforts of the financial media to suggest that a recession is on the way, Marketimer continues to regard the risk of recession as very low."
Wow!!! Now THAT is the first encouraging thing I have read in quite a while. It would sure be nice if he is right, and we end up having more of that great bull market in the months ahead.
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:28 PM   #6
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Amazon.com: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance): John J. Murphy: Books

i got my copy from the Amazon textbook store where college students shop from. the guy who wrote it also runs StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Stock Charts where the free service is enough

and i watch AlphaTrends daily and read Bear Mountain Bull Home as well

from there just follow the links to the other blogs/websites and you should find all you need

might go back to paying for IBD, but it's only real value is the stock screener where it gives a company rating and it's place in the industry group
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Old 03-08-2008, 08:18 AM   #7
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Quote:
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If you really want to do some research in this area I'd start with:

Blog - CXOAG Investing Notes

They report on guru's as well as tons of other ideas. They find some ideas that do work. Most of the timers results are found to be of little value. They have a guru rating section. I think this is a quite amazing wbsite.
The Guru Grades was a fun read. Isn't it fascinating that the composite % right was essentially 50/50 at 47.9%? And I suspect there are others that are not included that would bring the average down even more. Since he was mentioned in this thread, they show Bob Brinker at 53% - how much is that batting average worth? Wouldn't monkeys with darts be cheaper and just as accurate?

Remember Elaine Garzarelli? And the Elliott Wave? And the Beardstown Ladies? When will we ever learn?

The only investor I can think of who has never been discredited over his entire career is Warren Buffett - although I've never owned any Berkshire. I concluded that I should continue to follow William Bernstein, John Bogle, Scott Burns, Larry Swedroe and ignore the prognosticators.

Thanks for the laugh...hilarious.
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Old 03-08-2008, 08:31 AM   #8
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Market pundits, gurus and other "experts" have repeatedly been shown to be no better than buy and hold and usually much worse. Yes, you will occasionally find someone that truly "beat the market" (however they define it) for 10 or more years but their risk of "winning" in the next year is no better than the rest of the crowd.

There are thousands of newsletter, analysts and pundits that are always looking for a way to trumpet their success. If they were really any good at picking stocks and timing the market, why are they wanting to share their genius with us? The answer is that they make their money in fees from the gullible investing public and not their investment prowess.

I can tell you if I ever devine the perfect "model" I won't tell a soul. I will just quietly amass a fortune larger than Warren Buffet's.

I must confess that I have wasted thousands of dollars in my past life on various newsletters. I eventually figured out that they don't know any more than I do but they sure make it sound like they do.

FWIW -- I used to be a rabid technical analysis fan. Fortunately, I didn't lose too much money before I figured out that TA was a way to sound very sophisticated in describing what happened in the market but was totally useless as a predictor.
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Old 03-08-2008, 09:27 AM   #9
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Just reread my Feb. MarketTimer:

Quote:
It appears that the technical definition of recession rests with whether or not the first two quarters of 2008 show negative real growth. Even if that were to occur, we believe any such pause in economic growth would be brief and mild, with a recovery process underway by the second half of the year.
Says a bad recession during a presidential election year is unheard of. As seen by latest govenment hand-outs.

The $$ he's made me (pulled 2/3's in Jan 2000; back in March 2003) will pay for a lifetime of $185 fees. But he's human, and has made - and will make - mistakes.
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Old 03-08-2008, 09:42 AM   #10
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Old 03-08-2008, 01:35 PM   #11
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i thought i was the only one lol
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Old 03-08-2008, 02:46 PM   #12
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Just reread my Feb. MarketTimer:



Says a bad recession during a presidential election year is unheard of.
I'm sure Bush will even find a way to screw up that record.
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Old 03-08-2008, 03:50 PM   #13
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I'm sure Bush will even find a way to screw up that record.
That's why I'm not voting for him this year. Oh, wait...

Mike D.
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Old 03-08-2008, 08:40 PM   #14
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The $$ he's made me (pulled 2/3's in Jan 2000; back in March 2003) will pay for a lifetime of $185 fees. But he's human, and has made - and will make - mistakes.
me too....good assessment. On further consideration, I just noticed the title is "RELYING on....gurus" That "relying" part is what causes the problem. I couldn't be comfortable relying in any single point recommendation.
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Old 03-08-2008, 09:09 PM   #15
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there was one i subscribed to for a little while that concentrated mostly on Fidelity Select funds. back in the late 1990's i read about a guy who made a ton of money buying and selling into them. it's not that hard. around 50 years ago someone came out with a model that still works today that says when each sector goes up in the economic cycle. forgot the whole thing but it starts with tech and ends with the bigger heavy industry companies.

pretty sure Cramer and Bill O'Neill mention it in their books
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