Who here is getting close to capitulation? (Or how much more can you stomach?)

[RonBoyd]

This market will certainly test your confidence and nerves. If you want some comfort... look back at the great depression. Here is a thread from Rich on the recovery. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/recovery-times-after-the-great-depression-39558.html

Or to feel uncomfortable, read this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/opinion/21krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

"How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating."

This is not a political piece. It simply points out, for instance, the parallel (1932/2008) of a discredited current administration and an incoming admin with no authority at loggerheads creating a no-action situation.

 

[Dawg52]

Uh...Dawg, I believe the correct term in this situation is you feel like a 'suineg'. It's the same as feeling like a genius, only in reverse.

Did I ever mention I'm a charter member of Asnem?

Sad thing is, best trade I made all year.

 

[REWahoo]

This is not a political piece. It simply points out, for instance, the parallel (1932/2008) of a discredited current administration and an incoming admin with no authority at loggerheads creating a no-action situation.

There are considerably more differences than parallels in the two time periods. This article makes then and now comparisons to production, unemployment, personal savings, stock market declines, homes lost to foreclosures, deflation severity, global trade, government intervention, and safety nets (FDIC, SS, etc.). While nothing is impossible, what we are experiencing today makes it highly unlikely we'll see another depression - in spite of what the news media is telling us.

Nasty recession? Yes.

25% unemployment and soup kitchens the number one growth industry? I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[utrecht]

You know capitulation has occurred when you start vomiting from the violent drops on the stock market roller coaster.

Anyone figured out how to get it to stop capitulating?? I am feeling queasy!

Actually... I think we are seeing it now... but it is drawn out. Investors are expecting another shoe to drop (US Auto Industry failure). Plus there is still much fear and loathing about the economic numbers. And on top of that no one knows what the impact of all of those CDS will do if other businesses begin to fail or the NEW at risk JUNK bonds have no buyers.


IMO - to step off now would be the worst thing to do. Ever try getting off of a roller coaster as it is careening down its highest point? Hopefully you do not have money in the stock market you will need for the next 5-10 years.

I am sticking with the plan. Once the volatility settles down, I will rebalance (buy low/sell high). I would like to catch it at the bottom.. but I am not even going to try (I know I will miss). So if i miss the first move and get whipsawed, it does not matter, it is a long-term investment. 5-7 years out from that point I rebalance I am expecting the market to be trending up... [I am willing to take the risk]

This market will certainly test your confidence and nerves. If you want some comfort... look back at the great depression. Here is a thread from Rich on the recovery. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/recovery-times-after-the-great-depression-39558.html

Unfortunately, Ive said this exact same thing at least 4 times and each time ive been wrong. Whose to say its not wrong again ands the market doesnt drop another 20% in the next week?

 

[RonBoyd]

There are considerably more differences than parallels in the two time periods...

Actually, my point was that you can have whatever you want -- comfort or distress. It all depends on your personal image of the future. (See my signature line) I was merely being the Devil's Advocate.

Krugman did win a Nobel Prize in Economics a month or so ago, by the way.

 

[REWahoo]

Actually, my point was that you can have whatever you want -- comfort or distress.

No question which of the two I prefer...

Krugman did win a Nobel Prize in Economics a month or so ago, by the way.

And Yasser Arafat won the Nobel Peace Prize. But hey, nobody's right 100% of the time.

 

[RonBoyd]

And Yasser Arafat won the Nobel Peace Prize. But hey, nobody's right 100% of the time.

Good response... I concede. (But just to get the last word in -- nor wrong 100% of the time.)

 

[Meadbh]

Or to feel uncomfortable, read this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/opinion/21krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

"How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating."

This is not a political piece. It simply points out, for instance, the parallel (1932/2008) of a discredited current administration and an incoming admin with no authority at loggerheads creating a no-action situation.

Is there any way someone could persuade Dubya to RE?

 

[eridanus]

I wish I had more money to invest. There are some solid companies out there that have taken a beating. As it is, I'm loading up my 401k with TSM.

I did close one trading account. I had a total ROI of about 25% over 4 years. Not bad but a far cry from where it was in early September.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Unfortunately it seems to me that we all finally get it that the president has a limited effect on the economy and business, and the enthusiastic bounce that previous elections and inaugurations caused imho may not materialize this time.

So it doesn't matter if Bush were to leave office early (which would be a disaster imho in perception, and of course he won't, why would he? Did any other president other than Nixon voluntarily leave office early?).

 

[Gotadimple]

Is there any way someone could persuade Dubya to RE?

Seems like that takes a constitutional amendment. New president can't be inaugerated until January 20. He has capitulated a bit, though, by signing the bill extending unemployement benefits. It's a small thing, but a step in the right direction.

I'd be more concerned about Hank Paulson than George Bush.

-- Rita

 

[newporttony]

Unfortunately there is no point in capitulating now that the damage has been done. I will survive, but I imagine that this decline has been absolutely catastrophic to a large number of people. It has certainly been a life-changer for me.

 

[utrecht]

Unfortunately there is no point in capitulating now that the damage has been done. I will survive, but I imagine that this decline has been absolutely catastrophic to a large number of people. It has certainly been a life-changer for me.

If you look back a month or two you will see that people have been saying that at Dow 10000, Dow 9000, Dow 8000 and now. They (and by "they", I mean me also unfortunately) have been saying it all along and have been wrong all along.

I wonder how happy that guy is that had the idea to sell everything at Dow 11400 to not risk a financial catastrophe.

 

[harley]

Is there any way someone could persuade Dubya to RE?

Bad idea. I'm not a Bush fan (at least not the presidential kind), but I think 2 months of President Cheney could be the coffin nail for our great (if broke) nation.

 

[toofrugalformycat]

Unfortunately there is no point in capitulating now that the damage has been done. I will survive, but I imagine that this decline has been absolutely catastrophic to a large number of people. It has certainly been a life-changer for me.

CATastrophic indeed.

 

[REWahoo]

Sad thing is, best trade I made all year.

Hey Dawg, I'm not sure what you're drinking, but whatever it is I suggest you change to this. It may not turn the market around but it will help you end up every day in the black.

 

[Dawg52]

Hey Dawg, I'm not sure what you're drinking, but whatever it is I suggest you change to this. It may not turn the market around but it will help you end up every day in the black.

Yes, very good stuff. No, mainly beer during the day and wine at night to put me to bed.