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Who here is getting close to capitulation? (Or how much more can you stomach?)
Old 11-19-2008, 05:42 PM   #1
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Who here is getting close to capitulation? (Or how much more can you stomach?)

I think I saw in another thread a long time active poster saying they have just about reached the point of capitulation.

Who among us is getting close to the point of taking some $ out of equities. I don't think the answer needs explanation, it means you think it's gonna get worse, maybe a lot worse, enough said.
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:52 PM   #2
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Another 50% and my WR exceeds 5%. At that point I move to our farm land, grow a garden and buy bullets.
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:53 PM   #3
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I'm more worried about the bond markets these days. My equities are just going to ride it out.
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:56 PM   #4
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Me!!!! I'm trying to hold on. And I do realize that the market will eventually go back up. But the more it keeps going down, the longer it will take to make it back. The way I see it, if I have $1 million in and take it out now, in 5 years I will still have the million and maybe $200,000 extra of reinvested interest. But if I wait and it goes down to $800,000, even a 50% gain over the next five years (which I see as not overly optimistic or pessimistic) would give me $1.4...don't know if my mental health is worth the extra $200,000!
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Old 11-19-2008, 05:57 PM   #5
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Huh? Don't you mean who is getting out of stodgy old bonds and cash and buying equities?

We all understand buy low sell high - Right??

ok ok soo a few forum members have a few pesky residual(as in bought earlier) stocks that may have marched over a cliff.

Most interesting would be those that have taken out a mortgage/HELOC, emptied their piggy bank and bought stocks.

No guts/no glory.

heh heh heh - chickenheartedness requires that I reveal - my Target 2015 is full auto rebalancing even when I grit me teeth and close my eyes.

Ahem - I borrowed in 1973/74(broker loan) and bought REIT's thinking the div more than covered me - one or two bankrupcies later I found out different. I'm older now/lower hormone level/and less of a legend in my own mind. But I do feel the tug to buy.
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:00 PM   #6
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Unclemick, you'll always be a legend in my mind, if not your own!!!! All is right with the world when I read that heh heh heh....
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:13 PM   #7
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Im going down with the ship. Then again Im in a different position than other people. Im still buying equities when free money is available.
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:28 PM   #8
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I'm getting very close to my get out of the market number . One more down day and I may do it . I know it may be stupid but I can not take too much more . I've been in the market since the early 80's and this is brutal usually there is an up day amidst the down days but this is just a daily portfolio beating .
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:28 PM   #9
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the lifesaving ring is still on the hook. i haven't reached for the lifeboat oars yet. i will stomach whatever happens. my time horizon is still 12 years til 62, so i have a much different outlook at recovery time.
my glass is 2/3 full.
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:29 PM   #10
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You know it's going to be bumpy. It's not enough that the market has been falling off for the better part of the year, but as all have observed, there are a lot of economic issues the market is reacting to.

As a comparison here are the three major indexes from 10/1/1987 thru 1/1/1988. Anyone see a smooth ride here?

--Rita

P.S. Everyone breathe now!


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Old 11-19-2008, 06:42 PM   #11
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Still 100% individual equities here, no reason to change. SYY just raised their dividend 9% (next up MMM in a month or two), other companies look solid enough, even though most have had their earnings estimates reduced. Current market price - irrelevant.
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:42 PM   #12
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I will probably reduce exposure to equities slightly during substantial rallies. No plans to sell at this level as long as dividends and interest hold up although I do expect reductions.
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Old 11-19-2008, 06:49 PM   #13
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I'm still buying. Equities mostly, some bonds.

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Old 11-19-2008, 06:56 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor View Post
Still 100% individual equities here, no reason to change. SYY just raised their dividend 9% (next up MMM in a month or two), other companies look solid enough, even though most have had their earnings estimates reduced. Current market price - irrelevant.
Believe it or not, I was wondering earlier today if you still had the same philosophy. I'll give you this, your jewels must be made of iron. I haven't sold, going to ride it out. But if I ever get it back, I'm out.
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:06 PM   #15
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I stopped buying for now since I need to preserve my remaining cash.

My allocations are way out of wack, but if I reallocate now, they may be way out of wack in a few months anyway.

I will ride this down to zero at this point since selling is useless. I've got enough cash to last me a few years even without any earned income. I'm putting more hours in and re-organizing my business to a growth mode. Semi-retirement has it's benefits in dire times, and being able to go back to full-time when necessary is one of them. So, unless things turn around in the next few years, I can forget retiring at 40. My new goal is age 45.

So there's my version of capitulation.
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:06 PM   #16
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I've wished a thousand times I'd bailed this time last year. We talked about going to mostly cash. Now, we've ridden it down too low to get out (I think). I know it's likely a mistake to get out at these levels but good grief.... Maybe in rough times before I was too young (dumb) to realize, but somehow this just seems so much worse than anything I remember. But to quote Dawg above, if we ever gain some of this back, a real restructuring of the Asset Allocation is in order for this household - I'm too old for this stress.
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:14 PM   #17
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Hard to stomach, no doubt. But if capitulation means selling out of equities, don't think so. I've visualized living through another 50% decline from here, and I think I can sweat that out. The only reason I need large sums is to ER. The only way I know to get the larger sums needed to ER is stick with equities. But I am about ready to stop buying at this support level, thinking we are headed lower. Hope it isn't so.... And I agree with others: this experience has taught me I will have a very conservative AA (already pretty conservative) when I do get to retirement.
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:19 PM   #18
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Riding it out but I've stopped rebalancing to preserve capital. Some of the doomsday predictions of DOW 2,500, etc are starting to worry me.
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:31 PM   #19
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But the more it keeps going down, the longer it will take to make it back.
This may be true, but there is no reason it has to be true or even is more than 50% probable.

I have been way too optimistic it seems. But we have had a beautiful autumn here which is still continuing, I have many low cost and fun things to do, and as Rhett said, "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn!"

Ha
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Old 11-19-2008, 07:37 PM   #20
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I'm feeling pretty numb, but still buying and re-balancing to my target mix.
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