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Old 01-14-2016, 12:33 PM   #861
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Ok. Fair point.

But ... The way I see it, You could take the full year of 2016 to make that $2000 dollars that you have coming from ACA subsidy by way of trading ( ok. Call it 3000 because there are taxes etc) or more ....

I have confidence that 1. You're smart enough. 2. Disciplined enough and 3. know what you are investing in - the one or two companies, to spot opportunities.

Could you maybe manage that in a few trades spread over several months? Doesn't have to be a one time trade !!!

I bed you could easily do that. Maybe more !

I always find 4 or 5 " thousand dollar" days across the year where i can get in and really do ok on some quick trades... Well enough to not care about the ACA subsidies being my decision maker on a trade !
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Old 01-14-2016, 12:37 PM   #862
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Sure I can trade, just have to wait until Jan 23 for 31 days to have passed.

Gilead might give yet another opportunity if Merck's Hep C drug is approved. It might dip down for a short time to the high $80s. If I miss this opportunity, oh well.
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:11 PM   #863
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Just bought a bit of a 3x leveraged S&P ETF.

And for a longer-term holding, also a bit of a US telecom ETF which is a mixture of ATT, Verizon, T-Mobile, etc... This has a dividend yield of 3.55%, which falls short of those from Mulligan's preferred stocks but I expect to get nice cap gains when the market is back to normal.

Cap gains are great too, NW! Its just sometimes I panic too quickly to stay long enough to recieve those common stock cap gains rewards!


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Old 01-14-2016, 03:34 PM   #864
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Yes, cap gains would be great if they were not accompanied by the not-so-infrequent cap losses.

It is never a sure thing, but when the market has been through a bad period, the chance of the former is slightly enhanced. So, I nibbled a bit. The reward is minuscule compared to the PowerBall jackpot, but the odds are a lot better.
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:38 PM   #865
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Yes, cap gains would be great if they were not accompanied by the not-so-infrequent cap losses.

It is never a sure thing, but when the market has been through a bad period, the chance of the former is slightly enhanced. So, I nibbled a bit.

Here is how the game is played...You and I both buy stock "A" at $10. I bail when it hits $8, you hang on down to $7, then eventually sell out at $12. NW, files a capital gain on his taxes, while I file the $3k tax loss, and wait until next year to carry over more losses!


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Old 01-14-2016, 03:56 PM   #866
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Well, I have hung on to stocks that went down so much they were not worth the commission to sell (I try to not do that anymore). Compare that to Mulligan who buys stocks at $50 which stay at $50 but give him a few bucks of dividend every year, who's to say which is better?

When it comes to investing, a lot depends on execution. Even among people who do indexing/rebalancing, they have different returns. Do they do better than the established balanced funds, whose managers may be more skilled at taking advantage of market fluctuations?
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:46 AM   #867
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Hmmm, I should've sold yesterday while I was ahead. Now I have to think about buying even more today.

However, typically I don't buy on Friday dips as the following Mondays are usually influenced by people looking at their portfolio losses over the weekend.
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:49 AM   #868
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ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1452865732.991215.jpg

One of those days !!!
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Old 01-15-2016, 08:14 AM   #869
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Hopefully today will be the capitulation day in oil
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Old 01-15-2016, 09:12 AM   #870
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Options expiration Friday (I think) - that usually causes a lot of volatility. But $29s50 oil isn't helping. Especially since it had recovered to $31 yesterday.

Well, until oil bottoms.......
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Old 01-15-2016, 09:15 AM   #871
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Hopefully today will be the capitulation day in oil
Hah!

Personally, I think it will have to get to $20 or just below. And that will take a while still.
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Old 01-15-2016, 09:16 AM   #872
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Still sitting on over $400K in dry powder... will continue rolling it in slowly, since I feel this could go on all year.
As far as capitulation, it will be telling if the market recovers and goes positive for the day after falling by more than 400 pts. Then I'd say we might be there...
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Old 01-15-2016, 09:37 AM   #873
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I bought a few more shares of my cancer drug Powerball ticket Endocyte. Today it is trading for $111 million market cap with $170 million cash on hand, no debt, and about to start phase 2 trials.

I really think they should partner up again but they have enough cash to take the drug through phase 3 trials without a partner. The reason I call it a Powerball is it can go from $2.70 a share to $270 a share just like Pharmacyclics did.

And with a fairly low burn and 69 million more cash than market cap, it shouldn't go to zero in the short term.
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Old 01-15-2016, 09:48 AM   #874
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I bought a few more shares of my cancer drug Powerball ticket Endocyte.
I've heard about their process, which targets cancer cells with a molecule linked to a potent cancer drug. Very promising research.
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:09 AM   #875
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I've heard about their process, which targets cancer cells with a molecule linked to a potent cancer drug. Very promising research.
Yes, half of me wants to believe in them just for the cancer cure, not just to make money.

They take a chemo drug which normally is too potent to give to patients (would kill normal cells) and bind it to a molecule which cancer cells need but normal cells not so much (very simplified). Once inside the cancer cell (through endocytosis, hence the company name) the drug is delivered and the cell dies. It sounds simple enough

They have had great results in animal tests 5/5 cures across several types of cancer with the newest molecule EC1456. Fingers crossed not just for my Powerball number, but for the cancer patients in the trials. I hope one day to see the phase II or III study cancelled because all patients are being given the drug.
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:45 AM   #876
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Despite the nibbling here and there, my cash AA has gone up to 33% due to stock shrinkage. Boy, my play with 3x leveraged ETF means 3x the gain yesterday is now 3x the loss today. Fun time.

Sure, I will keep on nibbling, but will I have the guts to have it all in at some point, leaving only the expenses for 2 or 3 years in cash? It's not that easy to buy low, the same as it is difficult to sell high. Heh heh heh...
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:48 AM   #877
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Hah!

Personally, I think it will have to get to $20 or just below. And that will take a while still.
The Iran sanctions still have to be removed, and it will take 6 months after that to add their additional oil. We are a distance from capitulation in oil. Just look at XOM for one example; it's still at $77. I wonder if XOM is like one of the nifty fifty stocks from 1972; everybody bought them till the dam broke in 1973.
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Old 01-15-2016, 11:53 AM   #878
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Despite the nibbling here and there, my cash AA has gone up to 33% due to stock shrinkage. Boy, my play with 3x leveraged ETF means 3x the gain yesterday is now 3x the loss today. Fun time.

Sure, I will keep on nibbling, but will I have the guts to have it all in at some point, leaving only the expenses for 2 or 3 years in cash? It's not that easy to buy low, the same as it is difficult to sell high. Heh heh heh...

Whatever you do, it would be a better stock strategy than mine! I have lost almost a buck on a dumb preferred today I shouldn't have bought and am out $200 and dont like it... Thanks to two of my other smaller issues I am actually up a small amount today. But that still doesn't make me happy from not staying disciplined.


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Old 01-15-2016, 11:57 AM   #879
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Whatever you do, it would be a better stock strategy than mine!
That remains to be seen. We will need to exchange notes a year from now. Dow is down 500+ points. Whoa!

Do I nibble today? Decision, decision....
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Old 01-15-2016, 12:03 PM   #880
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That remains to be seen. We will need to exchange notes a year from now. Dow is down 500+ points. Whoa!

Do I nibble today? Decision, decision....

Well, I do have about 10% of my money in Total Stock Index. That wont be a pretty present to open up tonight... Im only 51, not 89 so I need to find them big boy pants and start putting money back in the real market. I might try "tricking myself" with baby steps of maybe a grand or two every month as long as market stays down. I might have to special order the big boy pants as I cant seem to find any in my drawer.


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