LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

Sold a 3rd tranche and will go for a 4th if the S&P500 keeps climbing. I find it unusual because oil is down 4% and large-cap international stocks are still down 1% while small-cap foreign are even. This probably means some currency plays.

I used some of the cash from selling to buy VEA (large-cap foreign) and some to buy AGG (US bond index). I'll hold the rest of the cash over the weekend.

Update after market close: No 4th sale today, but I did sell shares higher than the closing price, but not at the high for the day.

 

[NW-Bound]

Instead of IVV, I have been using SPY to trade the S&P 500. The two track very well, but SPY is older and has a lot higher volume (112 million shares today vs. 4 million).

Instead of selling outright, I sold covered calls on some stocks at slightly out-of-money strike prices, expiring in May. If the market slumps and the stock prices drop, I pocket the premium and still have my stocks to write calls on again. If the stocks go up and the option holder gets my stocks, it's fine too, as I make 10% or more in 50 days compared to selling right now. And these are the positions I want to trim some off the portfolio anyway.

 

[Fedup]

What are the differences between VOO, SPY and IVV?


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[DrRoy]

What are the differences between VOO, SPY and IVV?


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They are all S&P 500 index ETF's. VOO is offered by Vanguard, IVV is offered by IShares, and SPY is offered by ProShares. SPY is the highest trading volume of the three, which may offer lower spreads. I believe that IVV trades without comission at Fidelity.

 

[Fedup]

They are all S&P 500 index ETF's. VOO is offered by Vanguard, IVV is offered by IShares, and SPY is offered by ProShares. SPY is the highest trading volume of the three, which may offer lower spreads. I believe that IVV trades without comission at Fidelity.

Thank you for your explanation. I thought most people have an account with Vanguard, therefore VOO makes the most sense, to me anyway.


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[LOL!]

There are subtle differences between VOO, IVV, and SPY.

The main difference for me is that IVV is a no-commission trade at TDAmeritrade, but VOO and SPY are not.

Another difference has to do with their dividend payouts: http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2010/01/next-spy-ex-dividend-date-19-march-2010/

Liquidity is OK for all three, but VOO seems to have an average bid/ask of 0.03 while IVV and SPY are usually 0.01.

 

[NW-Bound]

When I first ventured from mutual fund investing, SPY and DIA ("Diamond") were among the first equities I bought. These SPDRs (Standard & Poor Depository Receipts) or "Spiders" are the granddaddies of the modern ETFs, and were around in 1990's.

Back in the early 2000s, the word ETF has not been coined, and there were also HOLDRs ("Holders") for Holding Company Depository Receipts for sector plays in utilities (XLU, UTH), pharmaceuticals (PPH), energy (XLE), consumer staples (XLP), semiconductors (SMH), etc... These have been reorg'ed , and operate more like ETFs now. I still have quite a few of these.

 

[LOL!]

I used some of the cash from selling to buy VEA (large-cap foreign) and some to buy AGG (US bond index). I'll hold the rest of the cash over the weekend.

I sold the VEA I bought for a small profit this morning. So now I have even more cash to put to work. Strangely though, cash looks to be the best deal right now.

 

[Fedup]

I sold some of my health care fund at a small gain. Probably about 1-1.5% for less than a month. I will buy ETF from now on if I want to trade.


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[papadad111]

Late yesterday began accumulating ERX. Will buy more from 22 or less and goal is to get the cost basis to approx 20 so any good dips below 20 will drive fast accumulation .

target long position over next few days is 1000 shares..

Long 100 shares to open.

My thesis : we're gonna retrace some of the last few weeks oil gains. Hence the position.

 

[papadad111]

When I first ventured from mutual fund investing, SPY and DIA ("Diamond") were among the first equities I bought. These SPDRs (Standard & Poor Depository Receipts) or "Spiders" are the granddaddies of the modern ETFs, and were around in 1990's.

Back in the early 2000s, the word ETF has not been coined, and there were also HOLDRs ("Holders") for Holding Company Depository Receipts for sector plays in utilities (XLU, UTH), pharmaceuticals (PPH), energy (XLE), consumer staples (XLP), semiconductors (SMH), etc... These have been reorg'ed , and operate more like ETFs now. I still have quite a few of these.

Me too. Back then it was diamonds. Spiders and the Q's...QQQQ for Nasdaq. And the holders were sector plays.

I recall a few Forex funds were interesting sector back then - trading like ETFs.

 

[Fedup]

I sold just in time, vht went down. Talk about timing. I didn't know AGN would drop $40 plus.


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[LOL!]

Today is the kind of day that I was hoping VEA would have had on Monday. That's why I bought it on Friday. Although today's gain was nice, it did not get back up to where I sold VEA on Monday.

I made no transactions yesterday and today.

I guess the news is that sometimes nice things happen when you cannot pay attention and take advantage of them. You just have let them go and look forward to the next time when you can do something.

 

[Fedup]

I picked up crumbs again. I won't mention the stock.


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[NW-Bound]

Not buying nor selling anything. Just waiting for my April put options to expire worthless, and my cash is freed up so I can do some more puts. Or not.

All this option writing, covered by the cash I have in a tax-deferred account, has returned more than 10% YTD on that cash. It's not a bad return on something with a higher risk than CDs, but lower than owning stocks outright.

Is it crumb? Yes, but crumbs are useful as a filler or binder in some dishes, like meatloaf or meatballs for example. You can eat it.

 

[Fermion]

NW, didn't you mention you had some IBB? It was up 6% today...wow!

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, I surely do. Of course, now I wish I had more. Fear turns to greed in the blink of an eye.

My cash-covered put option on Gilead is also going to expire worthless, but that is going to give me just a bitty crumb. I should have bought it outright. Oh well...

 

[Fedup]

I still have some health care funds, but they are not for trading. I still have a lot of cash. But I only trade on small portion of the cash. I have to be disciplined. I promise myself, I won't be greedy. The bulk of the money is in something sensible or boring.


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[Fermion]

Yes, I surely do. Of course, now I wish I had more. Fear turns to greed in the blink of an eye.

My cash-covered put option on Gilead is also going to expire worthless, but that is going to give me just a bitty crumb. I should have bought it outright. Oh well...

I have made a bit over $19,000 this year alone trading Gilead and IBB (sometimes only holding it for a day or two). I am actually well on my way to reaching our ACA minimum income goal with just this one little $100,000 account.

Who needs a million to retire? Retire on $100k (and TUMS)

 

[Sunset]

When I first ventured from mutual fund investing, SPY and DIA ("Diamond") were among the first equities I bought. These SPDRs (Standard & Poor Depository Receipts) or "Spiders" are the granddaddies of the modern ETFs, and were around in 1990's.....

Yes, my DW was a bit surprised years ago when I told her I bought her a bunch of DIAMONDs (DIA)

 

[papadad111]

Was thinking about IBB a few weeks ago. Shucks. Missed it

Am Buying ERX in the market today. Eventual goal is a $25k position below 22...

 

[Fermion]

Was thinking about IBB a few weeks ago. Shucks. Missed it

Am Buying ERX in the market today. Eventual goal is a $25k position below 22...

IBB is headed down today a little bit...might be able to buy tomorrow if it is down some more.

I am looking at it now, flipping a coin to see if I want buy in and ride it back up.

 

[Fedup]

I'm not buying ibb yet. But I was thinking of shorting tsla but had to run some errands and now it's down. I'm not shorting on a down day.


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[LOL!]

Just to keep myself honest, I have to report that I bought some VTI (total US stock market index) a moment ago with the money that I raised by selling VEA the other day. I guess the main reason is that US stocks basically are even today while foreign stocks are up.

If VTI goes up a little bit next week, then I intend to sell some IVV (S&P500) to get my US equities percentage back to where I like it.

 

[NW-Bound]

I did not make any trade this week. The market is stirring crazy again. On Tuesday, I "lost" the same amount as I have spent YTD. On Wednesday, I made it back plus a bit more. On Thursday, I lost it again.

Today is an OK day; my stocks are up 0.71% vs. 0.28% for the S&P. Some of the beaten down stocks are gaining, such as EM, in fact overall foreign stocks, energy and metal sectors, etc...

Next Friday, my April put options will expire, freeing up some more of my cash. But I will be traveling, and so may not have time to follow the market and may miss some opportunities.

I have made a bit over $19,000 this year alone trading Gilead and IBB (sometimes only holding it for a day or two). I am actually well on my way to reaching our ACA minimum income goal with just this one little $100,000 account.

Who needs a million to retire? Retire on $100k (and TUMS)

That's not shabby, and about 2x the return the cash I set aside to trade. Again, I use most of that cash to cover my put options, so do not make as much as buying the stocks outright. Still, that gain covers a bit more than 50% of my expenses YTD.

Overall, my trading activities did not return enough to really impact the entire portfolio return. But as a lark, any gain on that cash beyond CD or I-bond rates is a plus, particularly as I try to do what I consider lower risks than buying stocks outright with that cash.