LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

Since many of my ETFs went ex-dividend on Tuesday, but payable date is next week, it is kind of hard to figure out gains. However, VNQ did not go ex-dividend* and it is up 5% in the past 5 days, though some things are up more than 4% in 2 days.

All those dividends to-be-paid will have missed out on the gains of this week.

I really like the upward momentum in everything, but I just must stop myself from getting too greedy. I will submit an order to exchange a small amount of VTIAX (international index) to VBTLX (US bond index) in a moment. This is simply a de-risking move and not a move to make lots of money. It also simplifies one account.

The portfolio is now well ahead of its benchmark, so I can coast for awhile by getting back to the same asset allocation as the benchmark. This will practically guarantee not losing any ground to the benchmark going forward.

*Vanguard REIT index will declare a dividend probably overnight on Thursday (today). And "declare" is just announcing when and what amount; it is not the same as going ex-dividend.

 

[Fedup]

I just sold my trade on MNK, against my wish, I picked up crumbs. Oh well. The stock dropped 10% since I bought the puts but I made less than 5%. I wish I had kept my puts on Valeant.


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[LOL!]

Well, if you start with a bigger loaf, you might end up with crumbs, but they will be bigger crumbs and well worth it.

Since the markets have punched through the prices of the end of December, there seems to be more buyers nowadays. Maybe this is because of higher oil prices or maybe because the FOMC decided not to change the Fed funds rate. Or maybe because there is less uncertainty in who will be candidates in November.

In any event, it is interesting to me that there just seems to be more folks wanting to buy now that prices have recovered, than there were when everything was on sale. That just seems bass-ackwards to me.

I have some money from dividends to put to work, but I just can't seem to find anything on sale anymore. I will just have to hold my nose and buy some fixed income: AGG, BND, VBTLX, VCSH are all things that I am underweight in. Or maybe I should just go out and buy a new car?

 

[Fedup]

The way I see nothing goes up in a straight line and nothing goes down in a straight line either. It maybe tax season, people has to contribute to IRA and such. Last year things tank after May.


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[bmcgonig]

I executed the trade this morning. 700 shares of SPY and 7 calls at 145 (not 135). Theoretical gain for the year will be 4.42%. I did this with Fixed Income part of my portfolio. The rest is in bonds and CDs.

If the market tanks to 1450 over the next year I think I would be rebalancing into stocks anyway, and the amount that I would rebalance and the amount of SPY are similar. I'm well aware this is yield chasing, but so far I cant see a downside, but I've been myopic before

The trade didnt go through at midpoint between bid and ask, I had to wait until the bid moved up (as the market went lower I think).

Just following up on this from last September. The calls that I sold got assigned on Friday. Total gain for the nearly 6 mos was about $2400 on an output of about $100k. So about annual return of about 4.8%. The gain on the SPY was about 1550 and the one dividend in December that I got paid was 880. I got assigned this Friday on the exact day of the SPY March dividend. I'm trying to remember these numbers but they're approx correct. The return was made better by the fact that the Vix was much higher last September when I opened the trade. So not bad for a fixed income return.


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[NW-Bound]

So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K. I still have 3 outstanding April puts, and they are getting threatened if the market slumps. The biotech I bought recently is getting its gain trimmed too. Darn!

I just wrote an out-of-money April covered call on the S&P, just trying to get a few hundred $ for RV gas money . Maybe in a month, I will regret not writing more calls when the market drops badly. I will try to remind myself that it will then be time to write more cash-covered puts.

Just following up on this from last September. The calls that I sold got assigned on Friday. Total gain for the nearly 6 mos was about $2400 on an output of about $100k. So about annual return of about 4.8%. The gain on the SPY was about 1550 and the one dividend in December that I got paid was 880. I got assigned this Friday on the exact day of the SPY March dividend. I'm trying to remember these numbers but they're approx correct. The return was made better by the fact that the Vix was much higher last September when I opened the trade. So not bad for a fixed income return.

Wow, 6 months go by fast (and we are all that much older).

So, you made 4.8% annualized return with a relatively safe strategy that returns about 2X other fixed incomes. It works out as planned. Are you going to repeat this? The VIX is lower than it was 6 months ago, so I have not looked but perhaps the return is lower now.

 

[bmcgonig]

So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K. I still have 3 outstanding April puts, and they are getting threatened if the market slumps. The biotech I bought recently is getting its gain trimmed too. Darn!

I just wrote an out-of-money April covered call on the S&P, just trying to get a few hundred $ for RV gas money . Maybe in a month, I will regret not writing more calls when the market drops badly. I will try to remind myself that it will then be time to write more cash-covered puts.



Wow, 6 months go by fast (and we are all that much older).

So, you made 4.8% annualized return with a relatively safe strategy that returns about 2X other fixed incomes. It works out as planned. Are you going to repeat this? The VIX is lower than it was 6 months ago, so I have not looked but perhaps the return is lower now.

I'm going to wait until the VIX is higher. I think the fat pitch is to wait until there's a correction with a high VIX (they always come together I guess) and then sell some bonds to execute the trade. But just a higher VIX might be fine too. So I think I'll wait a while.


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[NW-Bound]

So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K...

Meant to write "... that I sold...". I am getting senile.

 

[papadad111]

Meant to write "... that I sold...". I am getting senile.

God forbid.

 

[NW-Bound]

I still remember most of the trig identities, and can still take derivative, do integration by parts, etc..., or with a bit of refresh can still do some differential equations, Laplace or Fourier transforms. But my writing has slipped some.

Back on market timing, I just bought a bit more biotech. This sector has been beaten down so bad, I cannot resist. Also, bought a bit more emerging market, but as I already have plenty, immediately wrote a covered call just slighly above current price. If it gets exercised, I make 10% in a month.

When the market is treading water like it has been, a bit of crumb is all I hope for.

 

[Fedup]

I think it's good to trade in and out on some of these type of stocks.


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[LOL!]

Today is a nice strong day based on Yellen's comments. I think recent highs of March 21-22 will be tested today.

Is anybody selling into this rise?

 

[Fedup]

No, but I'm short in one stock, I've been wanting to short this stock. Today the signal is much clearer. Let's hope I don't end up picking crumbs again.


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[LOL!]

I have an alert e-mailed to me whenever IJS is up more than 2.5% in one day. Today is the 2nd time this month that I have received this alert.

And oil is down today, yet things that usually drop when oil drops are up.

Momentum says things are going up. I don't think there are any press conferences tomorrow that might create a change in momentum.

Hmmm, I think I will set a good-for-the-day limit order to sell some US large-cap, but set the limit high enough that I don't expect the order to get filled. That way, I will feel like I did something without doing anything. But maybe a panicky buyer will pay my price near the market close?

 

[NW-Bound]

Eh, don't badmouth crumbs. If you gather enough, can make a meal out of it. Got to eat like a bird.

I hold about 7% in bonds, and 30% in cash. Both have crummy (crumby? ) returns, and if I can squeeze some crumbs out of my short-term trades using some of that spare cash, I am happy.

 

[Fedup]

This is my taxable account. I'm not sure my Ira is set up to trade like this for a reason. I don't need to worry about my retirement. This is my Las Vegas money. I enjoy being right sometimes.


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[Mulligan]

This is my taxable account. I'm not sure my Ira is set up to trade like this for a reason. I don't need to worry about my retirement. This is my Las Vegas money. I enjoy being right sometimes.


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Yesterday was an example of a perfect day for this retiree... Selling a stock for a small profit (not even worth mentioning, its about being right as you say) and snaking a 30 foot putt in for eagle 3 on a par 5.... That could be my permanent "Ground Hog Day".

 

[LOL!]

That putt is a great story! Good luck trying to repeat that.

I think [-]investors[/-] traders will want this first quarter of 2016 to finish at a year-to-date market high. With two more trading days to go, I think that will be the impetus to push things higher for the next two days. After that, who knows? Anyways, I made the prediction, so let's see how it turns out.

 

[Mulligan]

That putt is a great story! Good luck trying to repeat that.

I think [-]investors[/-] traders will want this first quarter of 2016 to finish at a year-to-date market high. With two more trading days to go, I think that will be the impetus to push things higher for the next two days. After that, who knows? Anyways, I made the prediction, so let's see how it turns out.

Based on the frequency I do this, around 2026 I should get one again. Except by then it will have to be an 80 yard hole out as the "heavy artillery" wont get me there in 2 by then.

 

[papadad111]

Was thinking about selling a bunch into this rally. Then I remembered that I need the steady dividend, that annuities and bond interest pay is very low (-and some taxed at ordinary income rates) and that this is a long marathon not a sprint.

I tend to trade when there is lots of red on the screen. That's when there is crisis and opportunity. I look for value trades.

Never been a momentum or growth investor so when everything is going up I just watch main portfolio of core holdings rise and don't worry about the little Vegas account.

 

[Fedup]

All the references to golf terminologies went over my head, you can tell I'm not a golfer. I sold some bio techs mutual fund that I bought a while ago for some small gain. Going forward, I think I might buy ETF instead of. Price fluctuates too much doing the day.


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[LOL!]

It is the last day of the first quarter of year 2016 and trading seems to be pretty anemic to me. Yes, the S&P is up slightly as I type this, but my bond ETFs are up even more. It is certainly not an exciting day to sell anything.

Nevertheless, I have put in a limit order to sell some shares of IVV (S&P500 index ETF) at a price it has not reached yet today. I kinda do not expect it to get up that high, but if it does, then I will be happy to unload those shares. Maybe you all can bid up the price and make me happy?

I have to go run some errands this afternoon, so I'll post an update later.

Update: Hmmm, mostly downhill since I posted the words above. Unless there is a big end-of-day rally, my sell limit will not be reached. But look at those bond ETFs, up 0.3% which is remarkable for bond funds.

 

[LOL!]

Bummer, I should've sold yesterday with a market order and not tried to get too fancy.

But what I was going to sell is down the least this morning, so it wouldn't have done me much good anyways.

 

[Fedup]

I got into more short term bond , my money has been sitting in money market.


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[LOL!]

A few hours can make a difference: My limit price for IVV was reached, so I'm selling. First tranche sold.

Let's see if the price goes up more and a 2nd order gets filled. And it does.

Update: And look at that, still going up! I intend to sell a 3rd tranche later today if I can get an even higher price.