Thoughts on TESLA

[bobandsherry]

Just a question to muddy the waters a bit. On the electric costs, most people's electric utility bill has a base cost for the electricity, and then there are several additional charges such as: distribution, delivery, and on my bill numerous generation riders. So the real cost per kWH is much higher than the base electricity cost. On my bill the delivery charges are approx half of the total bill.


So at a supercharger, is the cost of the electricity used to recharge including all those extra fees like delivery charges? Or for those quoting at home charging, do you use total cost?


I am not disagreeing that electric cost is typically less than gas cost on per mile basis. Just curious since electric cost can be stated in different ways, whereas gas cost is a fairly std $/gal cost; i.e the total cost.

You have to muddy the waters even more. The current cost for charging an EV ignores that they aren't paying into the road tax that is included in the gas costs. Once EV catches on more you can be assured that EV owners will be paying much more for recharging their vehicles.

 

[eroscott]

Just a question to muddy the waters a bit. On the electric costs, most people's electric utility bill has a base cost for the electricity, and then there are several additional charges such as: distribution, delivery, and on my bill numerous generation riders. So the real cost per kWH is much higher than the base electricity cost. On my bill the delivery charges are approx half of the total bill.

So at a supercharger, is the cost of the electricity used to recharge including all those extra fees like delivery charges? Or for those quoting at home charging, do you use total cost?

I am not disagreeing that electric cost is typically less than gas cost on per mile basis. Just curious since electric cost can be stated in different ways, whereas gas cost is a fairly std $/gal cost; i.e the total cost.

In our 3 electric car house hold ... we just take the total bill and divide by kWh to come up with the cost per kWh. We are on a hourly program so the price changes all the time. We charge at night when the rates are cheaper and as a bonus when we have the least impact on the grid.

Supercharging cost all are inclusive. See this page where I pointed to it and you can pick your state: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-86.html#post2165373

Additionally Tesla has to follow different rules for different states. See all this text.

 

[Midpack]

You have to muddy the waters even more. The current cost for charging an EV ignores that they aren't paying into the road tax that is included in the gas costs. Once EV catches on more you can be assured that EV owners will be paying much more for recharging their vehicles.

I’d imagine it won’t be long before tax authorities figure out how to levy federal and state road taxes on EV owners, only fair IMO. Varies considerably state to state, but order of magnitude it appears road taxes are about 20% of gasoline costs (0.47/2.358), and a little more for diesel. So for now the comparable fuel costs we should be using for ICE vehicles should be about 80% of actual cost/gallon?

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/marketing/monthly/xls/fueltaxes.xls

https://ycharts.com/indicators/gas_price

And to further muddy the waters, we don’t yet know how ongoing maintenance costs will compare between ICE and EV. Everything I’ve read would suggest an EV will be significantly less costly to maintain, maintenance costs alone. On average in the first five years, auto maintenance is about 2/3rds the cost of fuel. Presumably annual maintenance goes up in year six and beyond.

 

[eroscott]

I found this blog while l was researching Route 66 travel. A Tesla owner and his experiences on Route 66. Has info on Tesla ownership info including charging. Www.ElectricRoute66.com

Great find with a lot of interesting pictures.

 

[Cessna152]

Context!

This was in reply to eroscott's post #1701, where aja8888 was asking about the costs to charge at a Supercharger. Go back a few, and I clearly was talking about the Supercharger rates in IL.

#1757:
Look it up. Again, if my numbers are wrong in the context being discussed, please show me so I can learn.

-ERD50

My apologies, I missed that context. You are correct, it appears that Supercharger energy rates are marked up well above their cost to Tesla at its charging stations. Markups of 100% and higher. I presume this is to recoup the cost of building and maintaining the charging stations. Otherwise they would (will) be a nice profit center.

 

[eroscott]

My apologies, I missed that context. You are correct, it appears that Supercharger energy rates are marked up well above their cost to Tesla at its charging stations. Markups of 100% and higher. I presume this is to recoup the cost of building and maintaining the charging stations. Otherwise they would (will) be a nice profit center.

Time and time again they have explained it is not a profit center. It is on the page I've posted even (see below). Various articles on all this out there when this pricing for the Tesla Model 3 came about. Haha, all these topics have been discussed 100s of times in EV forums. Same discussions same misconceptions same back and forth. It's like people think they are bringing up new refuting information here

Look at all the states in the above links I've provided few times for the prices. It varies a lot.

https://www.tesla.com/supPort/supercharging

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I’d imagine it won’t be long before tax authorities figure out how to levy federal and state road taxes on EV owners, only fair IMO. Varies considerably state to state, but order of magnitude it appears road taxes are about 20% of gasoline costs (0.47/2.358), and a little more for diesel. So for now the comparable fuel costs we should be using for ICE vehicles should be about 80% of actual cost/gallon?

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/marketing/monthly/xls/fueltaxes.xls

https://ycharts.com/indicators/gas_price

And to further muddy the waters, we don’t yet know how ongoing maintenance costs will compare between ICE and EV. Everything I’ve read would suggest an EV will be significantly less costly to maintain, maintenance costs alone. On average in the first five years, auto maintenance is about 2/3rds the cost of fuel. Presumably annual maintenance goes up in year six and beyond.

Midpack, you mentioned what would be fair. When France raised the gas taxes 70% overnight, were they being fair? Nope, they weren't. The goal is to eliminate ICE cars, not to be fair.

And if France would have boiled the frog slowly, instead of all at once, yellow vests probably wouldn't have ever occurred.

I agree with what you say. But the government has a goal, and its not to be fair.

 

[Ronstar]

Illinois tollway buildings/ maintenance yards had electric charging stations probably around 10 years ago. While trying to find out when they were installed, I stumbled across this- Illinois Tollway is considering wireless recharging in the pavement in their I294 redo, and considering wireless charging stations also. https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/illinois-tollway-considers-wireless-ev-charging

 

[bobandsherry]

I’d imagine it won’t be long before tax authorities figure out how to levy federal and state road taxes on EV owners, only fair IMO. Varies considerably state to state, but order of magnitude it appears road taxes are about 20% of gasoline costs (0.47/2.358), and a little more for diesel. So for now the comparable fuel costs we should be using for ICE vehicles should be about 80% of actual cost/gallon?

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/marketing/monthly/xls/fueltaxes.xls

https://ycharts.com/indicators/gas_price

And to further muddy the waters, we don’t yet know how ongoing maintenance costs will compare between ICE and EV. Everything I’ve read would suggest an EV will be significantly less costly to maintain, maintenance costs alone. On average in the first five years, auto maintenance is about 2/3rds the cost of fuel. Presumably annual maintenance goes up in year six and beyond.

Not sure how much simpler maintenance costs could be for my ICE vehicle. It's 2+ years old, I've only had to change oil twice, one of those was free. Replaced front windshield wipers. That's it for 2+ years. My last vehicle, basically same thing. Turned in at 3 years, it too was only oil changes, front wipers and air cleaner (that I did myself for $8). And thinking back, car before that was also only oil changes and wipers.

 

[mpeirce]

Now if you don't want to accept what the governments are offering you to purchase an EV, then don't do it, and stop whining on retirement forums.

Governments only offer incentives to people for purchasing an EV by taxing other people.

That makes it a pretty legitimate target for "whining" in my book.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Governments only offer incentives to people for purchasing an EV by taxing other people.

That makes it a pretty legitimate target for "whining" in my book.

Then you have made your choice. You can begin whining if you wish.

I bought 2 EV's to double my incentives.

The two paths couldn't be clearer.

I actually had not noticed you doing any whining. Doesn't seem to be productive in any way.

 

[Ready]

Governments only offer incentives to people for purchasing an EV by taxing other people.

That makes it a pretty legitimate target for "whining" in my book.

I’m not sure I understand the point. Is there any way for the government to offer an incentive without effectively taxing other people. Do renters pay more because homeowners could deduct mortgage interest while renters couldn’t deduct rent? When 1099 employees deduct all business expenses don’t W2 earners pay more as a result?

Do you have an alternative suggestion to solve this problem?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I’m not sure I understand the point. Is there any way for the government to offer an incentive without effectively taxing other people. Do renters pay more because homeowners could deduct mortgage interest while renters couldn’t deduct rent? When 1099 employees deduct all business expenses don’t W2 earners pay more as a result?

Do you have an alternative suggestion to solve this problem?

Good point. The government encourages homeownership. Lets you deduct mortgage interest. You can also rent if you choose.

The government also gives tax incentives to get you into zero emission vehicles they want you to drive.

You can buy and get the incentives, or choose not to, and let others have them.

 

[mpeirce]

The government also gives tax incentives to get you into zero emission vehicles they want you to drive.

Why should the government try to get people to buy one car over another?

Some people think the government should not be trying to change people's behavior.

 

[gerntz]

Why should the government try to get people to buy one car over another?

Some people think the government should not be trying to change people's behavior.

It's pretty straightforward that when government encourages behavior thru rebates & discourages thru taxes it's because they enjoy having power over others.

 

[eroscott]

So no more topical Tesla facts in this thread just a degradation about government and incentives. That serves no purpose as it just rehashes things a million times. Why are people like @mpeirce and @gerntz even in this thread as they have nothing to do with Tesla just general bashing about gov.

Not sure how much simpler maintenance costs could be for my ICE vehicle. It's 2+ years old, I've only had to change oil twice, one of those was free. Replaced front windshield wipers. That's it for 2+ years. My last vehicle, basically same thing. Turned in at 3 years, it too was only oil changes, front wipers and air cleaner (that I did myself for $8). And thinking back, car before that was also only oil changes and wipers.

So no brake or rotor work? Hardly seems like typically ICE car ownership. EVs have a large benefit of regen in this example. No plugs or other ICE motor issues? Another oddity based on most of our experiences in the past.

 

[NW-Bound]

Why should the government try to get people to buy one car over another?

Some people think the government should not be trying to change people's behavior.

The government has always tried to change people's behavior.

But the government is from the people, and so if one does not like a certain policy he is entitled to voice his objection. In the end, the majority will win, hopefully from an informed decision.

As we have seen, the public sentiment about various issues varies from one locale to another. When a policy is at the federal level, that's where the discord is at the highest, as one can imagine. What to do?

 

[NW-Bound]

So no brake or rotor work? Hardly seems like typically ICE car ownership. EVs have a large benefit of regen in this example. No plugs or other ICE motor issues? Another oddity based on most of our experiences in the past.

I hardly have to do brake or rotor work until 75-100K miles. Perhaps brakes wear out more in city driving, while in rural or suburban areas, the driving condition is sufficiently different.

Within the last 20 years, ICE cars only need spark plug change at 100K miles.

 

[bobandsherry]

So no brake or rotor work? Hardly seems like typically ICE car ownership. EVs have a large benefit of regen in this example. No plugs or other ICE motor issues? Another oddity based on most of our experiences in the past.

Nope, no brake or rotor work was needed, not on my past three cars. And no, engine issues either. And plugs today will go for 100,000 miles before they need to be replaced. The only maintenance items were the oil changes, wiper replacement and air filters as I noted. I don't drive them hard and I don't load them up with miles. 3 year leases and then move on.

 

[aja8888]

So no brake or rotor work? Hardly seems like typically ICE car ownership. EVs have a large benefit of regen in this example. No plugs or other ICE motor issues? Another oddity based on most of our experiences in the past.

I just put new front brake pads and rotors on our 2013 Hyundai Santa Fe two weeks ago. Check my picture in the "repair" thread. Total cost for the parts was $162.00 (the best you can buy, cross drilled and slotted rotors, ceramic pads). The car has 85,000 on it and I did the replacement preemptively as the pads were probably good for another 10K miles. The rear pads are about 1/2 worn so I can expect to change them and the fronts adgain at around 150,000 miles.

Spark plugs? I can't believe one would even ask about those as modern (last 25 years) electronic ignition systems don't wear the electrodes at all in 100,000 miles or so. Even then, it's questionable if plugs needs to be changed. Usually, plug wires will get "leaky" before plugs need changing. Even still, spark plugs are only a few dollars each ($5 max) and usually can be changed in a 1/2 hour.

We have had this car since new and we are on tire set #2 (OE's lasted about 60K) and two air filters @$10/each. I change the oil every 7500 miles so I probably have $500 in that expense. I do all my maintenance myself.

We have had no engine and transmission issues and the SUV has averaged abut 26 MPG over its life running 89 octane.

We paid $26K out the door for this very well equipped SUV.

Please understand that today's common everyday driver type cars are relatively low maintenance and have pretty good frequency of repair histories. Plus, with proper and normal care, they can last a long time. Unfortunately, a lot of people seem to think these are "your grandfathers cars".

 

[eroscott]

I just put new front brake pads and rotors on our 2013 Hyundai Santa Fe two weeks ago. Check my picture in the "repair" thread.

Nope, no brake or rotor work was needed, not on my past three cars.... 3 year leases and then move on.

I don't know what I was thinking. Everyone just does short (2-3 yr) leases now-a-days (vs 6-7 yrs ones) or just does their own car maintenance or ICE cars rarely have problems (dealers, Meineke, etc are few and far between). Wow, you guys have lost touch.


Thread title: Thoughts on TESLA
Back to the Tesla topic.

Quote from insideEVs.com which has proven to be the most reliable Tesla estimating site by far ... plus real numbers are coming as Tesla (and Ford) only put out quarterly numbers.
This will be filled in within a few days: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla likely delivered significantly more Model S and X vehicles in the U.S. in December than it did in November, and Model 3 sales are expected to be record-breaking.

Our early estimates indicate that Tesla delivered about 33,000 vehicles in the U.S. last month, 24,500-25,500 of which were Model 3 sedans.

We eagerly anticipate Tesla’s quarterly report and hope the automaker surpassed these preliminary numbers in its big end-of-the-month push.

 

[oneill225]

For those who may actually be considering investment in Tesla, 2019 will be another big year. The Model Y is most interesting to me because it should be a more affordable version of the Model X. If the pricing is close to the Model 3 (which it is based off of) it could be a very big seller. A good article:

https://electrek.co/2018/12/31/tesla-2019-model-y-model-s-x-refresh/

 

[aja8888]

I don't know what I was thinking. Everyone just does short (2-3 yr) leases now-a-days (vs 6-7 yrs ones) or just does their own car maintenance or ICE cars rarely have problems (dealers, Meineke, etc are few and far between). Wow, you guys have lost touch.

Yeah, I have to agree, we are unique!

 

[eroscott]

For those who may actually be considering investment in Tesla, 2019 will be another big year. The Model Y is most interesting to me because it should be a more affordable version of the Model X. If the pricing is close to the Model 3 (which it is based off of) it could be a very big seller. A good article:

https://electrek.co/2018/12/31/tesla-2019-model-y-model-s-x-refresh/

a) I think you are very right with various automakers demonstrating their move away from sedans and to SUVs and CUVs.

Articles: Popularity of SUVs in US: https://www.google.com/search?q=popularity+of+suvs+in+us

b) As well non-USA countries want these smaller wheelbase cars as they fit in with their streets, parking, garages, price points etc way better. I think the ramp up and orders of the Model 3 in non-USA countries in the last few weeks are demonstrating this. The Y is going to be an enormous success.

Articles: Popularity of "Tesla Model 3" in europe: https://www.google.com/search?q=popularity+of+"Tesla+Model+3"+in+europe

 

[Ready]

It will be interesting to see what happens to US sales of Tesla cars now that the tax credit is phasing out. Is there any scenario under which someone in the US would place an order for a car today, the first day of the reduced credit? I would think if they were ready to buy a Tesla they would have completed the purchase by last night.

I received a call from my Tesla rep yesterday. Out of pure curiosity I called him back to ask if I could really take delivery of a car by the end of the day. I told him I wanted a Black LR RWD. He had one in stock within ten miles of my house. I only would have considered it if they took my Lexus as a trade in. They wanted me to upload all of the information on my Lexus to their web site so they could make me an offer, but they told me it would be based on the valuations on cars.com. I took a quick look at the appraised value and it was so low that I decided to forget about it. But if it wasn’t for the trade I could have purchased another Tesla before year end. They were willing to stay open until midnight to complete the sale. That’s some serious motivation.

I’m hoping to see some incentives later this year to motivate those of us who waited.