Thoughts on TESLA

[eroscott]

...
I am talking about how the government will tax EVs to replace gas taxes. As it stands, EVs are avoiding those taxes....

There are plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery only EVs (BEVs) taxes in 17ish states.

17 states have passed extra fees on electric cars

Graphic via: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair

 

[eroscott]

Re: China GF3 timetable and "support from the Chinese government"

Tesla is aiming to follow an incredibly ambitious timetable for Gigafactory 3. When the company initially announced its target of starting vehicle production within two years after the facility begins construction, many in the United States were skeptical. Wall Street analyst James Albertine, for one, flat-out declared the target timeline was “not feasible.” In Tesla’s Q3 2018 production and deliveries report, Tesla did adjust its estimates, making its timetable even more aggressive. Earlier today, Musk noted on Twitter that the goal is to finish the initial construction of Gigafactory 3 this summer, followed by the start of Model 3 production by the end of 2019. Large-scale manufacturing of the electric sedan would begin sometime next year.

While such an aggressive timeline is classic Elon Musk, it should be noted that Tesla seems to be getting a considerable amount of support from the Chinese government. After the project was officially announced last year, for example, it did not take long before local Shanghai banks granted Tesla low-interest loans to fund part of the facility’s construction. Furthermore, Tesla’s bid for the 864,885-square meter plot of land in Shanghai’s Lingang Industrial Zone went unchallenged. The company’s construction partner, China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd, is also a subsidiary of China Construction, which is owned by the government.

With support from the local Chinese government, there is almost no doubt that Gigafactory 3 will be completed on schedule. Ultimately, the start of Model 3 production in the upcoming facility would likely depend on Tesla’s capability to ship and set up its equipment in the battery and electric car factory.

Watch Elon Musk’s speech at the Gigafactory 3 groundbreaking ceremony in the video below.
...

Via: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-model-3-model-y-affordable-versions/

 

[oneill225]

There are plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery only EVs (BEVs) taxes in 17ish states.
17 states have passed extra fees on electric cars

Graphic via: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair

Fair enough. I know states want to recoup the lost gas taxes, but I have not heard of any current system (even the additional fee models) that fully reach that goal. In WA State they are experimenting with a tax per miles driven, for example.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

"Why should any government encourage their use?"

Turn on your vehicle, stand behind it, and inhale deeply. You'll get your reason.

 

[bobandsherry]

Just a question, out of curiosity and experience from the past "alternatives" that proved to be problematic once you moved towards higher acceptance/consumption. So if everyone started to plug in relatively overnight what's the impact on the grid?

 

[NW-Bound]

"Why should any government encourage their use?"

Turn on your vehicle, stand behind it, and inhale deeply. You'll get your reason.

Gotta be careful, or we will be like Germany with its coal plants burning dirty brown coal called lignite to make electricity. Coal plants still produce 37% of their electricity, in fact. See photo below.

Maybe we can get Mexico to produce that electricity for us?

 

[NW-Bound]

But back on Tesla, can anyone see their $50K cars become the standard EVs when EVs become more popular?

Or something like that $12K BYD car I showed earlier? Well, maybe a bit more than that to allow for safety upgrades to export to Western countries.

For domination of EVs for the masses, Tesla must have a road map to produce lower cost cars.

And the whole thing about EVs is really about the battery. I just saw a Bloomberg article talking about the next generation battery. It shows that the company holding the most patents on this so-called solid-state battery is Toyota. Yes, Toyota.

This battery technology is still in its infancy, so lithium batteries still rule for a while. Even here, Panasonic, the battery supplier to Tesla, does not have a clear maintainable advantage.

 

[bobandsherry]

Fair enough. I know states want to recoup the lost gas taxes, but I have not heard of any current system (even the additional fee models) that fully reach that goal. In WA State they are experimenting with a tax per miles driven, for example.

Seems slowly, states are making a move on that.

NEW FEES ON HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

State legislation related to electric vehicle fees has increased in recent years, with Utah and Mississippi becoming the most recent states to pass measures. Nine states enacted new fees in 2017—California, Indiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Many of these fees are included in larger transportation funding packages, coming alongside increases in gas taxes, vehicle registration fees or other transportation-related revenues.

In at least four states—California, Indiana, Mississippi and Utah—these special fees are structured to grow over time. Either tied to the consumer price index or another inflation-related metric, these states are striving to avoid the declining purchasing power of gas taxes due to years of fixed-rate structures.

 

[Chuckanut]

And the whole thing about EVs is really about the battery. I just saw a Bloomberg article talking about the next generation battery. It shows that the company holding the most patents on this so-called solid-state battery is Toyota. Yes, Toyota.

This battery technology is still in its infancy, so lithium batteries still rule for a while. Even here, Panasonic, the battery supplier to Tesla, does not have a clear maintainable advantage.

I am not surprised that Toyota has the most patents. They seem to have a sound method to improve technology over time. The Hybrid Camrys before mine averaged 34 mpg. My somewhat newer hybrid Camry gets about 38 mpg. Today's Camry makes mine look like a gas-hog as it is is well over 40 mpg, IIRC.

FWIW, I suspect Tesla will also improve their cars over time. Anybody who stands still in this race falls behind. Mr. Musk's SpaceX built 5 different versions of his rocket before he settled on a design that they believe is adequately reusable. And test versions of the next rocket design are already being built. I can't imagine Mr. Musk will let Tesla rest on its laurels.

I will hang on to my hybrid for 2-3 more years while I see what develops in EV technology and the network to support it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla is not really in the battery business. Battery makers like Panasonic or LG or Samsung will sell to any car maker. And I am sure that Tesla is keeping an eye on new technologies to see what develops.

It has been suggested that Toyota has not committed to a full-scale factory of EV lithium battery like the Gigafactory because it wants to reserve capital for the solid-state battery when its time comes. But on the other hand, the new battery is nowhere ready for use. Will Toyota miss out the EV "revolution" because it holds out for the new battery?

Who knows how this all plays out, but I am a lot more interested about battery technology. To me, EVs are just big batteries with a motor and wheels bolted on, along with a fancy shiny shell. See the photo below of a 1917 electric car running on lead-acid batteries.

 

[eroscott]

But back on Tesla, can anyone see their $50K cars become the standard EVs when EVs become more popular?

Or something like that $12K BYD car I showed earlier? Well, maybe a bit more than that to allow for safety upgrades to export to Western countries.

For domination of EVs for the masses, Tesla must have a road map to produce lower cost cars.

Points:
a) No reason for "domination" hyperboles as there is plenty of room in for many car companies at various prices points. More EVs by all players is what the goal is and Tesla has stated that many time in many ways (articles, interviews, blogs, etc).

b) Average cost of cars is the low to mid 30s so plenty of room for sales and profit. Above I point out they are making the based Model 3 and Model Y in China (see tweets and article searches just a few post up).

https://i.imgur.com/IVI8Oc1.jpg

c) Tesla had a road map to put out luxary cars and then get to lower priced cars ($30Ks).

2006 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
2016 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

 

[kcowan]

...since this thread is devoted to whether Tesla is a good investment, can you tell us whether you believe Tesla is a stock worth investing in?

I can't speak for ERD50 on any subject but my view is that Tesla is a speculative play on price at this point. In 12-18 months, it will have moved to a point when it might be investment grade. By then, most of the speculative profits will have been made (or not).

And if the power companies handle peak loading by building new gas plants, then their rates will have to increase substantially to generate a return.

(And if the politicians take the time to understand the implications to the grid that ERD50 has explained, watch for continued increases in taxes on EVs!)

 

[gstillson]

I am waiting on the quantum entangled battery where half your battery is stored in a warehouse and through some magic the other half in your vehicle is charged through quantum entanglement in some unknown freaky fashion.

 

[Lakewood90712]

I can't speak for ERD50 on any subject but my view is that Tesla is a speculative play on price at this point. In 12-18 months, it will have moved to a point when it might be investment grade. By then, most of the speculative profits will have been made (or not).

And if the power companies handle peak loading by building new gas plants, then their rates will have to increase substantially to generate a return.

(And if the politicians take the time to understand the implications to the grid that ERD50 has explained, watch for continued increases in taxes on EVs!)

Cant speak for other states, but CA currently has a glut of peaker plant capacity , it just costs a lot on the wholesale power. EDIT: Base load wholesale power in CA is under 4 cents a KW , in virtually unlimited amounts if you contract for it ahead of time on a take or pay basis.

Here is a peek at what is coming to the 3 investor owned utility customers ( about 20 million ) in California https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ca...ons-biggest-time-of-use-rate-roll-out/543402/ Edit , My tinfoil hat on now, a conspiracy to force everyone to buy a Tesla powerwall. Tesla does have very influential lobbyists in the state capitol.

47 cents a KW hour from 4 to 9 pm. I may buy a wrecked ev to park in the garage just to get the special super low EV electric rate and avoid the time of use rates.

 

[ERD50]

Cant speak for other states, but CA currently has a glut of peaker plant capacity ....

That may be true, but it seems to be counter to this post from the RE thread:

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...can-be-100-renewable-95073-2.html#post2157373

That says CA is replacing some peakers with battery storage. Why do that if they have lots of peakers?

-ERD50
​

 

[NW-Bound]

... Here is a peek at what is coming to the 3 investor owned utility customers ( about 20 million ) in California https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ca...ons-biggest-time-of-use-rate-roll-out/543402/ Edit , My tinfoil hat on now, a conspiracy to force everyone to buy a Tesla powerwall. Tesla does have very influential lobbyists in the state capitol.

47 cents a KW hour from 4 to 9 pm. I may buy a wrecked ev to park in the garage just to get the special super low EV electric rate and avoid the time of use rates.

From the above link:

... SDG&E's March 2019 system-wide offering will have two TOU plans, both built around a 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. peak period priced at $0.47/kWh, Rate Reform Project Manager Katelin Scanlan told Utility Dive. The utility will also offer an off-peak price of $0.22/kWh and a super off-peak period from midnight to 6 a.m. at $0.16/kWh...

My sincere condolences.

Wow, even your off-peak rate of $0.22/kWh is the same as my on-peak rate here in Phoenix. My off-peak rate is $0.074/kWh.

The above is the mid-summer rate. Shoulder season is cheaper, and in the winter, on-peak rate is $0.10/kWh and off-peak is $0.069/kWh.

And we just received a letter from SRP (Salt River Project), a government-owned water and power administration, that next year there will be a 2.2% rate cut. Said the reason was lower fuel cost (nat gas), and they wanted to pass on the savings.

PS. During your on-peak period, is there anything to prevent EV owners from plugging into the grid and sucking out 100kW a piece? Do they pay the same rate, or get a subsidized special rate?

 

[ERD50]

OK, have a little time from my projects, will try to catch up a bit...

See full exchange below, I'll pull out a few excerpts here, but this demonstrates to me that oneill225 is not really committed to a meaningful exchange. For example:

oneill225: "I do recall you citing a flawed study that grossly overstated the use of coal to generate electricity. "

See, it is just too simplistic and easy to just say the study is flawed and try to claim a 'win'. Show me the flaws and how they affect what I'm claiming. Since you didn't do that, it leads to me think that you can't do it, or you would have in order to make a strong point.

Hint: The study certainly is not flawed in the way you state, It actually showed a comparison for each fuel type separately, there was no forced assumption of any amount of coal. There were multiple examples of zero coal. Try again, but this time read and understand what I provided.

Go back to post #739 in this thread:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-12.html#post2110824

You tried to make the same 'average grid' argument back in Sept/Oct of 2018. It still doesn't matter, and it still is not what that study shows.


oneill225: " You cannot seriously argue that a car powered by a natural gas plant is less green than a car powered by gasoline (hybrid or ICE). "

I'm not arguing it, I'm showing you the numbers behind it. It depends on a lot of factors, mpg of the ICE/hybrid, and source of the marginal electrical generation to charge the EV. For a 100% NG source, and against their reference hybrid, the EV does show to be better. But not by a lot, and we also don't know what mpg was used for that hybrid. But hybrids have improved a lot in the past few years, EVs still use about the same kWh/mile (there's really not a lot of room for improvement). So I would not be surprised if the best hybrids today are better or as good as an EV on NG.

The important point is, EVs aren't so much better even in that case, that it makes sense to hold them up as "planet savers" or to subsidize them. And, if even a little coal is used to supply that extra demand, it wipes out the EV advantage pretty quickly. And remember, grid operators throttle down their coal plants at night. If a fleet is charging, they will keep the coal plants running a little higher to meet that demand, as long as the marginal coal plant operation is cheaper than the marginal NG plant operation.

oneill225: "I am talking about how the government will tax EVs to replace gas taxes. As it stands, EVs are avoiding those taxes. When that changes, I contend that it will be done in a way that still incentivizes EV sales. Common sense."

It is not 'common sense', it is only your opinion. You might be correct, but there is some evidence to the contrary (posted recently in this thread). I still see no reason why we should subsidize EVs, and since those subsidies are dependent on government, to paraphrase Tina Turner "What's sense got to do with it, do with it?"

Now, if you want to challenge the above, fine - but can we play by some helpful rules please? Like -
A) Please answer within the context I provided. I see a lot of diversion tactics in this thread. It appears that when the facts become inconvenient, the technique is to change the subject, and try to answer a different question.
B) Provide facts, figures, sources where applicable.
C) No 'appeal to authority' or other logical fallacies - the statements should be able to stand on their own.
D) Just admit when/if you are wrong.

Thanks.-ERD50

oneill225: "I'll pass on the gotcha game, but since this thread is devoted to whether Tesla is a good investment, can you tell us whether you believe Tesla is a stock worth investing in?"

This is why I say you are not being serious. There is nothing about points A-D that has anything to do with a 'gotcha game', just the opposite. Are you saying that facts, figures, context, and good logic have no place in a meaningful discussion? I'm actually starting to believe you do believe that! Prove me wrong.

I have no opinion worth discussing on pretty much any individual stock, or even the market in general. I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't have enough understanding of how the other non-car pieces of the puzzle fit into Tesla. I do think there are many obstacles to Tesla in maintaining their stock price, but I don't have enough information, nor the P&L analytical skills to put any money on that. Anyhow, this thread is called "Thoughts on TESLA", not "Thoughts on TSLA", so I think overall discussion of the company and its products, separate from its stock price, is fine. If you disagree, you can report about 98% of this thread to the mods

...Speaking of the above - can you go back and review post #1611? I got lost, what exactly were you trying to say about an ICE owner having trouble finding a gas station? It seems to me you never clarified that. And I think you tried to change the subject from gas stations being hard to find to some general statement about EV sales - IOW, changing the topic instead of addressing the issue. I don't want this post to just go open ended like that, that's a waste of time. So please close that #1611 gas station conversation out and explain yourself before we continue. Thanks.-ERD50

Again, I'd really like to finish that conversation before going on another. It does look to me that you avoid things when they aren't fitting your world view. So what's up on that gas station thing?

-ERD50


Full exchange below, with embedded quotes, for reference:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Not wishful thinking, facts. It is something I've discussed before in length on this forum, with data from the National Academy of Sciences. I'm busy now, will try to find links later if you have not found them yourself by then.
Hint: As I've probably mentioned recently, an EV is additional marginal draw on the grid. The grids in the US rarely (most are never) have an excess of RE, so to 'fuel' that EV, a non-RE power plant somewhere on the grid must increase its output. That plant is most likely a gas peaker, but if a fleet of EVs charge each night, it's likely that a grid operator will meet that expected demand with the cheapest fuel available, which may mean keeping a coal plant operating a bit higher overnight than they would w/o that added demand from EVs. Yes, your EV is mainly running on fossil fuel. Average generation on the grid does not matter - it is that extra marginal generation that matters. Any source dealing with average RE on a grid is missing the point.

I do recall you citing a flawed study that grossly overstated the use of coal to generate electricity. Any more recent studies showing hybrids are cleaner? Regarding "marginal" increases in electricity generation, those will be gas plants, as you suggest, not coal plants. So, if we are already using those coal plants, why do you include them in the "marginal" increases? If the "marginal" increase in electricity is met with gas and not coal, then we are talking about a more eco-friendly solution over hybrids and ICE vehicles. You cannot seriously argue that a car powered by a natural gas plant is less green than a car powered by gasoline (hybrid or ICE).

And why should any government encourage their use? If they are so great, they will expand on their own merits.
EVs will no doubt increase over the next few years. After that, who knows? The competition (hybrids, who knows what next?) is not standing still, and maybe more people will understand that EVs are not as green as they have been willing to believe.

Why? It is irrelevant, because they are (I think it has something to do with carbon emissions). By the way, I am not talking about the current incentives, I am talking about how the government will tax EVs to replace gas taxes. As it stands, EVs are avoiding those taxes. When that changes, I contend that it will be done in a way that still incentivizes EV sales. Common sense.

Now, if you want to challenge the above, fine - but can we play by some helpful rules please? Like -
A) Please answer within the context I provided. I see a lot of diversion tactics in this thread. It appears that when the facts become inconvenient, the technique is to change the subject, and try to answer a different question.
B) Provide facts, figures, sources where applicable.
C) No 'appeal to authority' or other logical fallacies - the statements should be able to stand on their own.
D) Just admit when/if you are wrong.
Speaking of the above - can you go back and review post #1611? I got lost, what exactly were you trying to say about an ICE owner having trouble finding a gas station? It seems to me you never clarified that. And I think you tried to change the subject from gas stations being hard to find to some general statement about EV sales - IOW, changing the topic instead of addressing the issue. I don't want this post to just go open ended like that, that's a waste of time. So please close that #1611 gas station conversation out and explain yourself before we continue. Thanks.-ERD50

I'll pass on the gotcha game, but since this thread is devoted to whether Tesla is a good investment, can you tell us whether you believe Tesla is a stock worth investing in?

 

[Lakewood90712]

From the above

PS. During your on-peak period, is there anything to prevent EV owners from plugging into the grid and sucking out 100kW a piece? Do they pay the same rate, or get a subsidized special rate?

I have not checked recently , but it used to be you had a choice of one meter and some kind of blended regular and ev rate or 2 meters with the charging on the EV rate only

 

[ERD50]

FYI: Here's the chart from the study referenced in post # 739:




Full report:

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Larry Ellison just invested a billion into Tesla.

I have heard Musk is also buddies with the Google billionaires. That could help with possible finance help in the future if true.

 

[eroscott]

c) Tesla had a road map to put out luxary cars and then get to lower priced cars ($30Ks).

2006 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
2016 Tesla roadmap: https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

* The new utility-scale battery storage will be interesting to see more utilities take advantage of the solar farms they are installing.

* Also wondering how the if the existing cars benefit much from the new ultra fast chargers launch.

* Model 3 rollout in Europe and Asia should be good as well if you consider their gas prices (see chart below).

Via: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ter-hell-7-charts-show-musk-on-firmer-footing

Via: https://www.statista.com/statistics/221368/gas-prices-around-the-world/

PS. During your on-peak period, is there anything to prevent EV owners from plugging into the grid and sucking out 100kW a piece? Do they pay the same rate, or get a subsidized special rate?

One example for CA (midnight to 6am = $0.09 but 4pm to 9pm = $0.52) -- SDG&E /San Diego Gas & Electric:

Via: https://www.sdge.com/residential/pricing-plans/about-our-pricing-plans/electric-vehicle-plans

 

[oneill225]

See, it is just too simplistic and easy to just say the study is flawed and try to claim a 'win'. Show me the flaws and how they affect what I'm claiming. Since you didn't do that, it leads to me think that you can't do it, or you would have in order to make a strong point.
Go back to post #739 in this thread:
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-12.html#post2110824

Already done. I told you exactly where to find the flaws (like the false assumption that 45% of the US electric grid is coal powered). Why you continue to promote this flawed study is unclear to me.

You tried to make the same 'average grid' argument back in Sept/Oct of 2018. It still doesn't matter, and it still is not what that study shows.

Your fixation on the "marginal" (aka "additional') power needed is pointless unless the "marginal" power will be generated with coal in similar or greater percentages as today. You may not have noticed, but coal powered electric plants are closing faster than they are being built. Future electric plants (marginal, that is) will overwhelmingly be gas powered, not coal powered.

So I would not be surprised if the best hybrids today are better or as good as an EV on NG.
The important point is, EVs aren't so much better even in that case, that it makes sense to hold them up as "planet savers" or to subsidize them. And, if even a little coal is used to supply that extra demand, it wipes out the EV advantage pretty quickly. And remember, grid operators throttle down their coal plants at night. If a fleet is charging, they will keep the coal plants running a little higher to meet that demand, as long as the marginal coal plant operation is cheaper than the marginal NG plant operation.

Fine. Some hybrids may be close to EVs if the EVs are running off of the dirtiest coal plants. What is the larger point? Why does this matter so much to you? Do you think Tesla should be building hybrids? Do you think the "greenies" don't like hybrids? So much effort for so little purpose.

I have no opinion worth discussing on pretty much any individual stock, or even the market in general. I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't have enough understanding of how the other non-car pieces of the puzzle fit into Tesla. I do think there are many obstacles to Tesla in maintaining their stock price, but I don't have enough information, nor the P&L analytical skills to put any money on that. Anyhow, this thread is called "Thoughts on TESLA", not "Thoughts on TSLA", so I think overall discussion of the company and its products, separate from its stock price, is fine. If you disagree, you can report about 98% of this thread to the mods

This explains a lot. The "Thoughts on Tesla" thread is a subcategory of the stock picking thread. Now you know. That being said, I have no problem discussing the larger issues surrounding EVs because that info is necessary to judge an investment in Tesla stock. I would expect contributors to occasionally refocus on Tesla as an investment, however.

If you would like to turn this into your place to vent against phony "planet savers" and EV subsidies, it is a free country. I don't think you need to be planet saver to like Tesla as a company or an investment.

 

[ERD50]

Already done. I told you exactly where to find the flaws (like the false assumption that 45% of the US electric grid is coal powered). Why you continue to promote this flawed study is unclear to me. ....

It doesn't matter because I'm not dealing with averages. Look at the numbers for electricity produced by NG and coal separately, which is the context I used.

Your fixation on the "marginal" (aka "additional') power needed is pointless unless the "marginal" power will be generated with coal in similar or greater percentages as today.

See above.

...

Quote: So I would not be surprised if the best hybrids today are better or as good as an EV on NG.
The important point is, EVs aren't so much better even in that case, that it makes sense to hold them up as "planet savers" or to subsidize them. And, if even a little coal is used to supply that extra demand, it wipes out the EV advantage pretty quickly. And remember, grid operators throttle down their coal plants at night. If a fleet is charging, they will keep the coal plants running a little higher to meet that demand, as long as the marginal coal plant operation is cheaper than the marginal NG plant operation.

Fine. Some hybrids may be close to EVs [-]if the EVs are running off of the dirtiest coal plants.[/-] What is the larger point? ...

May I respectfully ask you to re-read what I wrote? Double-check the context. I clearly said, and you can see it in the chart in post #1894, that a best-in-class hybrid may be as good or better than an EV on 100% NG.

An EV on coal is almost off-the-charts worse than a gas hybrid or even diesel.

The larger point is EVs are not "planet savers". If they fit some peoples needs/wants, fine, they should buy them. But there is no point in anyone promoting/subsidizing them as 'green'.

...This explains a lot. The "Thoughts on Tesla" thread is a subcategory of the stock picking thread. Now you know. That being said, I have no problem discussing the larger issues surrounding EVs because that info is necessary to judge an investment in Tesla stock. I would expect contributors to occasionally refocus on Tesla as an investment, however. ....

OK. As I said, there is too much info for me to digest to make any serious analysis of the future stock price. But we can discuss some of the subsets of economics that will affect the stock price (and I have). How about:

The approaching debt? What about the convertible debt? It doesn't look like TSLA will be at the convertible price (can't rule it out though) when it comes due. What does that mean for TSLA?

Is Model 3 still stuck at ~ 5,000 units a week, even as the $7,500 tax credit is being reduced? What was Elon's promises for production numbers? Should an investor have faith in a company that so consistently misses its promises on promises on promises?

But please, don't answer any of those questions until you finish answering the previous ones. I keep getting the sense you are in sort of a 'hit-and-run' mode here. It seems that when a topic gets tough for you, you drop it and try something else. So again, and again - please answer and clarify what you really meant to say about current purchasers of ICE/hybrids will need to worry about finding a gas station. Then we can move on.

... If you would like to turn this into your place to vent against phony "planet savers" and EV subsidies, it is a free country. I don't think you need to be planet saver to like Tesla as a company or an investment.

No, you don't need to be planet saver to like Tesla as a company or an investment or as a car. But since Tesla relies pretty heavily on that belief for customer's tax credits to boost sales and for tax credits from other companies for 'zero-pollution' vehicles, it is relevant.

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

I have heard Musk is also buddies with the Google billionaires. That could help with possible finance help in the future if true.

It helped in the past: he was basically bust but they bailed him out. Also, Peter Thiel and the whole paypal founders cluster.

 

[Totoro]

Gotta be careful, or we will be like Germany with its coal plants burning dirty brown coal called lignite to make electricity. Coal plants still produce 37% of their electricity, in fact. See photo below.

That's not an EV consequence, but a consequence of shutting down nuclear power after Fukushima.