NW-Bound
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2008
- Messages
- 35,712
Can you get your wife to do that?
Can you get your wife to do that?
In my opinion, the Fed has been propping up this market for years, with QE1, QE2, etc.. I don't think it is a coincidence that the S&P 500 has been basically flat since the last QE ended in October 2014. I see very little upside potential for this market in the near-term, and I think we have a lot further to fall. The huge drop in commodity prices (especially oil) and the problems China is having only add to the current volatile situation, IMO. If I had some spare cash that I wanted to put into the market, I would wait a while and see how this plays out before jumping in. I may be all wrong, but it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months or more.
I'm going to watch this one from the sidelines, for now anyway.
I'm with you on this sentiment opinion. I went to All Cash this past Wed after the Fed minutes were released and trading became volatile. Sold at the pop around SPY 209. Saved me over $200k of paper losses but I agree more room to fall. 1850 S&P could come quickly. That's where I would start buying if 1950 doesn't hold on Monday
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If the market rout continues on Monday, I am focusing on just two stocks and abandoning the index for further investing. Apple and Gilead.
Two of the best values in the market and both getting sold off along with the real crap.
Apple is no Nokia and has more money in the bank than a small country.
Gilead makes $15B a year profit on 29B in revenue.
Poor people buy the best phone and poor people get sick.
If you like AAPL at this level... why not sell November puts at say $95 and reduce your cost even more?
I'm with you on this sentiment opinion. I went to All Cash this past Wed after the Fed minutes were released and trading became volatile. Sold at the pop around SPY 209. Saved me over $200k of paper losses but I agree more room to fall. 1850 S&P could come quickly. That's where I would start buying if 1950 doesn't hold on Monday
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I call BS on this.
I call BS on this. There have plenty of days "when trading became volatile", but this is the one particular day you decided to sell everything? Then you waited until after you saw that we had the worst back to back days in over 5 years to come here and post about your absolutely perfect timing? Call me skeptical, but Im not buying it.
Technically you don't actually post trades as a trade requires the time volume and price and you only provide price and time.Yes, the spirit of this Newsletter is to post trades before they occur or at least within minutes of the trade orders executing.
FWIW, Bnk1 mentioned on 19 Aug that he/she went to all cash that day. Not in this thread, so that makes it trickier . . .
When I first started investing in the mid-80s, I subscribed to a (by mail) newsletter with a number of model portfolios of low-cost MFs. They had a great track record. After the big 1987 "Black Friday" crash, I looked at the next newsletter and found that they'd reduced their equity positions a lot during the days before the decline. How convenient. And how were subscribers supposed to confirm that? And how were we to know to sell our positions like they had? At that point I figured out how their model portfolios and timing had done so well, and I came a step closer to indexing.
Yes check the other thread where I was posting my actions in nearly real time... Quite lucky to be sitting on 2.95M cash right now after others on here were trying to convince to get back in!! Sometimes you just have to follow your gut and experience and luck doesn't hurt . I'll post screenshots if necessary to protect my reputation but the other thread should detail sufficiently the actions I have taken.
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How much tax will you owe or did the 2.95M not participate in the runup we have had the past few years?
I sold Jun'16 SPY 191 puts for $16.70 when the VIX hit 45
If the market rout continues on Monday, I am focusing on just two stocks and abandoning the index for further investing. Apple and Gilead.