0.0173% of Americans live to 100

[harley]

I always used 100 when calculating financials for us, figuring that we were going to be leaving $ to DD and her kids. I have no expectations of actually making it to that age.

 

[CRLLS]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

VW

Yes. Much Higher that one might expect. According to: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/aging_population/cb11-194.html >

The nation's 90-and-older population nearly tripled over the past three decades, reaching 1.9 million in 2010, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and supported by the National Institute on Aging. Over the next four decades, this population is projected to more than quadruple.

I read that as "once I am in the 65 or older group, then I have a 4.7% chance of reaching 90". And since I am planning as a couple, the chances of one of us living to the age of 90 is higher yet. I can't imagine using a goal of <5% failure rate on the financial side and not planning for the same <5% chance for longevity. The Census numbers above are based on 2010's actual population. It is not a forecast. They are forecasting that percentage to grow. So by the time I am 80 or 85, the number in that group might be 10% or higher. That is why today our plan is for 100. We don't expect to live that long but who really knows for sure?

According to https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-09.pdf those >95 make up 1.1% of the population of those over 65.

 

[RunningBum]

Interesting to see the calculators flying around out there. These two ask the same questions, except the first also asks about exercise, the second adds one on parental history. Neither of these is a risk factor for me.

https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com/life/life-expectancy-tool.aspx
https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/life-age-expectancy-calculator.aspx

I answered all the questions the same. I'm 56 now.

For the Hancock one, I get 95, which is possible but I don't expect it. I do plan for it, just in case. Maybe they are trying to show me what a great deal an annuity would be? Or an LTC policy?

For the Bankrate one, I get 83.4. Sounds a lot more realistic.

 

[Sojourner]

We may be on the cusp of life extension. I read Ray Kurzweil and I believe he's right. I plan on living way past 100.

Kurzweil's arguments in support of near term, AI-driven life extension have been widely panned by most scientists working in the relevant fields (AI research, neurobiology, etc). The current mainstream thinking on this by people who actually know the detailed state of the cutting edge research and where it is going over the next few years is that AI-driven life extension—allowing humans to live hundreds or thousands of years—is likely not going to be technologically feasible for at least another 50-100 years.

 

[flintnational]

..................

https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com/life/life-expectancy-tool.aspx
https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/life-age-expectancy-calculator.aspx

I answered all the questions the same. I'm 56 now.

For the Hancock one, I get 95, which is possible but I don't expect it. I do plan for it, just in case. Maybe they are trying to show me what a great deal an annuity would be? Or an LTC policy?

For the Bankrate one, I get 83.4. Sounds a lot more realistic.

I am 57 and got the same readings. I prefer the Hancock calculator. Clearly the Bankrate calculator is flawed. Now that I know when i will die, it makes the "when to take SS decision" a piece of cake!

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

My Dad (who will soon be 91) is having some issues with COPD and he's having a harder and harder time doing stuff (still lives by himself and doesn't need too much help with day-to-day stuff) but can't wrap his mind around the fact that his condition WILL get worse. He is frustrated that it can't "be fixed". When I point out that he's over 90 years old and is a former 130+ "pack year" smoker...he just looks at me like I am crazy.

 

[braumeister]

Sometimes I think just staying as active as you can plays a huge role.

One of my neighbors is pretty active, playing tennis three times a week and golf at least once a week much of the year. He is also CFO of a local company. I judged him to be about 80. But in today's mail we got an invitation to a surprise 90th birthday party for him next month. Pretty impressive!

 

[Andre1969]

Is that figure accurate? I just pulled up some actuarial tables from SS. It's showing 2013 data. However, it's showing an estimate of 1001 out of 100,000 males still alive at 100, and 2893 females. So, wouldn't that make the odds more like 1.01% for males, 2.893% for females? Still a very low number, but a lot greater than 0.0173%.

For age 95, 5878 out of 100,000 men still alive, and 12,250 women. Or, 5.878% for men, 12.25% for women. Yeah, chances are you won't make it that long, but that's more than just a snowball's chance in hell.

FWIW, I had one Granddad live to be one month shy of 102, and one Grandmom make it to about 2 1/2 months past her 91st birthday. I also have one relative who will turn 94 if she can make it to October (she actually seems pretty healthy, all things considered), and a great-aunt who I think is going to be 95 soon.

Heck, one of Thelma Harper's kids is now 96, and says she's gonna outlive us all!

 

[kgtest]

Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

Anywho, I don't know if getting old is fun, I don't think it would be as fun as getting young.

 

[harley]

Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

Anywho, I don't know if getting old is fun, I don't think it would be as fun as getting young.

I think about it, but I don't get sad or down about it. I only really worry about making DW, DD, and the grandkids sad. I've had a great life (and intend to continue that for as long as possible), with lots of fun and good memories. I even wonder about what's next, if anything. I think I find it more exciting than a downer. The only time dread or sadness comes into it would be fear of pain and misery. I'm very much not into that. I'm hoping for fun and happiness, followed by a bright flash, then whatever comes next.

DW is more like you, I think. But I've always tended toward making the best of whatever situation I'm in. And it's not like I can do anything about it, so why worry?

 

[RAE]

Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

I guess I think about my mortality a little more as I've gotten older, but I don't worry about it or get sad. I just try to stay active and reasonably fit, because I want to be able to live independently as long as I possibly can. My biggest fear is that I will need to be reliant on someone else for my daily care for a long time before I pass. I don't want to put that burden on anyone (and I'm not sure I want to live that way, either). So, whatever age I live to, I hope I can be reasonably active and independent until just before the end, and then the end comes quickly. I guess we all hope for that kind of ending, huh?

 

[97guns]

My grandmother made it to 101

 

[MarieIG]

Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

 

[Dtail]

I think about it, but I don't get sad or down about it. I only really worry about making DW, DD, and the grandkids sad. I've had a great life (and intend to continue that for as long as possible), with lots of fun and good memories. I even wonder about what's next, if anything. I think I find it more exciting than a downer. The only time dread or sadness comes into it would be fear of pain and misery. I'm very much not into that. I'm hoping for fun and happiness, followed by a bright flash, then whatever comes next.

DW is more like you, I think. But I've always tended toward making the best of whatever situation I'm in. And it's not like I can do anything about it, so why worry?

+1 Could be coz still in my 50's, but still so glad to be retired every day and looking forward to the next day.

 

[Dtail]

Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

The hip injury often seems to speed up the dying process.

 

[Aerides]

Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

KG, you're quite young to have these thoughts as much as you describe. Especially the use of "black and dark space", and "often".

Oh and for the smoker(s), the CDC says subtract 10 years unless you quit by 40, in which case you're probably back to 100%. I'm sure there's a sliding scale for quitting later, you can google that easily enough.

 

[RAE]

Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

Injuries due to falling are quite often the trigger that leads to big problems for elderly folks. Hip fractures are a big one, but other types of injuries can be serious as well. My 85-year old neighbor fell in his house a couple months ago and fractured a bone in his back. He had been doing okay until then. He had to go to the hospital by ambulance, but he thought he'd be back home as soon as it healed. As it turned out, the bone fracture led to some other nerve issues, and the last I heard he still cannot walk more than a couple steps, and now might be headed to the nursing home. It is really important to maintain your balance and fitness as you get older, to avoid falls.

 

[harley]

Injuries due to falling are quite often the trigger that leads to big problems for elderly folks. Hip fractures are a big one, but other types of injuries can be serious as well. My 85-year old neighbor fell in his house a couple months ago and fractured a bone in his back. He had been doing okay until then. He had to go to the hospital by ambulance, but he thought he'd be back home as soon as it healed. As it turned out, the bone fracture led to some other nerve issues, and the last I heard he still cannot walk more than a couple steps, and now might be headed to the nursing home. It is really important to maintain your balance and fitness as you get older, to avoid falls.

I've seen a number of reports recently that say a lot of people actually break something, and then fall. Between Osteoporosis/Osteopenia and such, bones get so brittle that just walking or stepping can cause something to break. Then the fall can break more or make it worse. I absolutely agree that working on balance is critical, but sometimes even that isn't enough. Getting old is harder than numbers.

 

[Car-Guy]

I did my financial retirement planning out to 100. I now realize that's not going to happen and have also begun to realize that is probably a blessing. I did have one relative live to over 100 and several made it into their 90's. However, none have had any real quality of life after about 85 (maybe even 80 for many and younger for some). Biggest events in their life became doctor appointments. Or at least, that's all they seem to talk about.

My dad had two sayings (when in his 90's) "there ain't nothing golden about the golden years" and "gettin old ain't for sissies".

 

[Out of Steam]

While I have longevity in my family, especially on my mother's side, I can't see giving up our best years left to a cubicle for a one-in-a-hundred chance of long life expectancy. I'm also skeptical of media claims of ever-increasing life expectancy, as in "we're all going to live to be 110 and break the country".

My planning is based on a 50/50 chance of living to be 85. It does help that our largest single source of income will be an inflation-adjusted pension.

 

[joeea]

Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

Plan for any age you choose. (Me, I'm planning for 95).

If I'm planning too conservatively, then the worst that happens is that I leave a larger than expected legacy. But if I'm planning too aggressively, then the worst that happens is I run out of money and depend on family and the government to keep me out of poverty.
For me the choice is clear.

But if you plan for less than 95/100, at least have a Plan B (or plan to be poor) if you beat the odds.

 

[samclem]

My planning is based on a 50/50 chance of living to be 85. It does help that our largest single source of income will be an inflation-adjusted pension.

How does/would the "50/50 chance of living to 85" assumption materially affect your planning?
And, is that for more than one person?

 

[97guns]

Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

When you get to this age it can be anything that can take you, at this age your extremely susceptible to even the smallest ailments, enjoy your elderly family members as much as possible

 

[VanWinkle]

Plan for any age you choose. (Me, I'm planning for 95).

If I'm planning too conservatively, then the worst that happens is that I leave a larger than expected legacy. But if I'm planning too aggressively, then the worst that happens is I run out of money and depend on family and the government to keep me out of poverty.
For me the choice is clear.

But if you plan for less than 95/100, at least have a Plan B (or plan to be poor) if you beat the odds.

So you're doing the deferred annuity to start paying at 85?

 

[timo2]

So I'm hearing that at 65 I'm not middle aged?