0.0173% of Americans live to 100

[VanWinkle]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

VW

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

VW

That is a good point to keep in mind, but for those of us with family members living close to 100 or even more, the odds are higher. Also the people on this board probably have healthier habits and get better than average medical care so that will bring the average life span up as well. We have neighbors not only living that long, but still living independently and driving.

 

[Hermit]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

VW

Maybe a deferred annuity should be priced to reflect the probabilities?

A friend's mom has just outlived her money. She had been living in a nice assisted living center. She is moving in with friend and family. She will turn 100 this summer. You place your bets and take your chances.

 

[obsessed]

That might be a historical %. Based on life tables I pulled from the Social Security website last year, it looks like the percentage of males at age 65 that are expected to live to 100 is 1.15%. It's 7.0% for age 95. The numbers for females are 2x-3x that amount.

 

[samclem]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100.

Those folks in the census who were 100 lived most of their lives before we had many of the advances in medicine and public health that we have today. So, that retrospective look vastly understates the chances of reaching 100 for those alive right now, especially younger folks.
From an article in The Guardian using UK stats:
Chance of living to 100:
... A male who is 40 now: 15% Female: 22%
....A male who is 50 now: 12% Female: 18%
....A male who is 60 now: 10% Female: 15%

A girl born in 2011 has a 1:3 chance of living to 100, a boy has a 1:4 chance.

It's probably not much different in the US (UK life expectancy now is 81, the US is 79). Don't smoke? Good genes? Exercise? there's a good chance you'll do better than these percentages.

I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

Sure, but that's why the mortality credits are high. But, like all insurance, it is still, on average, a losing proposition for the buyer.

 

[Midpack]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population.

VW

I'm not sure how helpful statistical averages or generalizations are. Any of us could get hit by a proverbial bus tomorrow. That aside, whatever the percentage is, unless there's a known medical reason to predict otherwise I'd think each of us might want to give some weight to family history in making our longevity planning calculations. Unfortunately (they would say) my Mom lived to 93 and my Dad is still living independently (with my DS) at home at age 96. Believe me I don't want to live that long, but there's no reason based on my current health and family history to believe I won't make it into my 90's. And DW's Mom lived to be 88 even though she didn't take care of herself at all...

 

[Elbata]

We may be on the cusp of life extension. I read Ray Kurzweil and I believe he's right. I plan on living way past 100.

 

[candrew]

We have neighbors not only living that long, but still living independently and driving.

I w*rked with a predominately elderly population for close to 40 years. Although some who lived into their 90's still drove motor vehicles, many of them had diminished driving skills and should not have been on the road in the first place. Others who claimed to be living independently were not necessarily doing so in a manner was both safe and healthy.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I w*rked with a predominately elderly population for close to 40 years. Although some who lived into their 90's still drove motor vehicles, many of them had diminished driving skills and should not have been on the road in the first place. Others who claimed to be living independently were not necessarily doing so in a manner was both safe and healthy.

We live in an area with an abundance elderly residents. Many of them should not be on the road but they are. In recent years we've had a trifecta of pharmacies / elderly driver car collisions. The drivers park out front and forget to put the car into reverse before stepping on the gas or mix up the gas and brake pedals.

But the oldest driver actually seems to be a pretty good driver. We know people who have driven with him recently and said he's amazing.

 

[candrew]

In recent years we've had a trifecta of pharmacies run into by cars - elderly people parked out front and forgetting to put the cars into reverse and instead ploughing into the store front.

Oh man! That reminds me of the time 10 years or so ago when an octogenarian drove his car through the front entrance of our hospital's emergency room! Lots of glass shards, and miraculously, no one was seriously injured.

Just a few years ago, in our hospital's parking lot, we had another (octogenarian) that lost control of his golf cart, plowing into a stretcher patient being loaded onto to a transport van, killing the patient.

 

[flintnational]

I remember reading on JG's blog something to the effect of a 5% chance of living to 100 x 5% chance of plan failure, means you have only a .25% chance of both occurring (5% x 5% =.25%). This serves to increase your plan success rate for all but the unlucky few that live a very long time.

 

[NYEXPAT]

That might be a historical %. Based on life tables I pulled from the Social Security website last year, it looks like the percentage of males at age 65 that are expected to live to 100 is 1.15%. It's 7.0% for age 95. The numbers for females are 2x-3x that amount.

Any idea what percentage of guy's over 65 get sex change operations?

 

[harley]

get better than average medical care

Maybe so.

healthier habits

Maybe not.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Maybe not.

Averages would include people who live in high crime areas, food deserts, lack gyms or outdoor environments for exercise, etc. Research studies tend to show well off people tend to live longer in general for a variety of reasons.

 

[ncbill]

I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics.

No kidding.

Most males in my family died in their 70s.

Those that didn't...well, given what they suffered I'd much prefer the above.

 

[aja8888]

I'm thinking about a new set of golf clubs around 85 as I will be a few inches shorter by then. Probably will need to shorten bond durations too.

 

[stepford]

DW and I are on different ends of the expected longevity spectrum. Her parents died of natural causes in their mid-60s and early-70s while mine lasted well into their 90s. Whenever we talk about long range financial planning she just laughs and says she doesn't have much to worry about, but I'd better plan for another 40 years.

Hmmmph.

 

[RunningBum]

DW and I are on different ends of the expected longevity spectrum. Her parents died of natural causes in their mid-60s and early-70s while mine lasted well into their 90s. Whenever we talk about long range financial planning she just laughs and says she doesn't have much to worry about, but I'd better plan for another 40 years.

Hmmmph.

My mom kind of thought that. Her parents died at 58 and 63, I think. She's 81 and no signs of going anytime soon.

 

[braumeister]

I love anecdotes about longevity. They're meaningless but fun.

My mom was always quite firm about living to 96. There was no doubt in her mind that she would die at that age. She did.

I knew a guy who kept going to the office all his life. He retired in his 70s but kept his office downtown so he would have somewhere to go and get out of the house five days a week. He rode the bus and kept going until he was 101. One day he was talking to a friend in the building and said, greatly surprised, "It's finally happening. I'm starting to slow down." He died later that year.

And then there's the greatest anecdote of all:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment

 

[Dawg52]

My old boss and the man who hired me for my last job(27 years there) just had his 101st b'day. His mother died at 100 and that was due to a house fire. Who knows how long she would have lived......

 

[Aerides]

A lot depends on your age now.

Folks who "made it" into the stats showing what percent lived to 90, 95, 100, etc., were born shortly after WW1. Lived through the depression, through WW2, through all those years with diseases that have now been eliminated/reduced, with less vaccines, medical advances, less of us now smoke, etc. Certain illnesses that had a 20% death rate in the 70's might have 1% or less today.

Someone who is 70 or above might expect similar chances as that survey pool. Someone 60? maybe a bit less. 50? Less even still, and so on.

So, iow, just because someone born in 1918 had a .017% chance to make it to 100, doesn't mean someone born in 1958 will.

 

[Human]

I used an advanced life expectancy calculator that used many factors (current age, education level, health habits, etc.). It provided a life expectancy number, median, and quartiles. Unfortunately, the one I used is no longer online.

The result for me was a life expectancy of 87, but also a significant chance I'd live well into my 90s.

Anyway, that seems like a reasonable approach - a calculator based on general population data but accounts for ones specifics.

 

[Scuba]

I think it’s reasonable to plan for 90-95 life expectancy for a couple. At least one person could live that long, and it’s not that much cheaper for one vs two.

 

[Amethyst]

Yep, dad's parents died at 31 and 55, and he was 87 when his car was struck by a red-light runner. He died several months later from his injuries.

My mom kind of thought that. Her parents died at 58 and 63, I think. She's 81 and no signs of going anytime soon.

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

My sweet upstairs neighbor in my apartment building was due to turn 100 this year. Until recently we often met while she was out walking (with a helper) in our neighborhood. She once left a tap on in her bathroom, forgot about it and went to sleep, flooding our flat a bit, until we went upstairs to wake her. Her comment in her German accented English: "I'm a very bad person." We all laughed (with her). You live this long, dear, you deserve some breaks!

Sadly, she fell out of her bed last night and has died. I raise a glass to her longevity!

-BB