Thoughts on TESLA

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Texas Proud said:
One of the things that bothers me is the market for the Model 3...


They talk about ramping up production to 10,000 per week... that would suggest 520,000 units a year... this would make it the best selling car in America!!! I do not think that will happen..
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The market for Tesla automobiles is worldwide. 63% of 2016's total production was sold in the USA. So 37% went overseas. This is Model S and X, of course. I could not find 2017 numbers.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-sold-more-than-76000-evs-last-year-about-60-in-us/

We'll see how the Model 3 does outside the borders of the USA.
 
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Texas Proud said:
They talk about ramping up production to 10,000 per week... that would suggest 520,000 units a year... this would make it the best selling car in America!!! I do not think that will happen.
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They're selling it worldwide. In 2017, some 73.5 million cars were produced.
 
The people that bought Model 3 Tesla's were the ones who had deposit money. It's not like they were new sales. Be interesting to see what the demand is after all the pre-ordered ones are out in the public and also many of them will be for sale as used cars after a short time.

I know two Model S owners here in Texas that have their cars for sale after a year or so due to getting tired of the inconvenience of re-charging on trips to other parts of Texas. Both owners are retirees with plenty of time and money.
 
aja8888 said:
I know two Model S owners here in Texas that have their cars for sale after a year or so due to getting tired of the inconvenience of re-charging on trips to other parts of Texas. Both owners are retirees with plenty of time and money.
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Well, they could fix that problem by living in Rhode Island. :D

That is my main problem with buying an EV, along with cost, and the lack of places to get it serviced if I have a problem.

Given the charging and range issues, I think EV's make more sense in smaller countries and the smaller states East of the Pecos River. Those who live in areas with huge, empty distances between major cities are at a distinct disadvantage in regards to refueling. My hybrid can refuel in 5 minutes and can get 600 miles on a tank of gas, assuming I keep my speed in the 60's. No EV can do that yet.

I will say that all the Tesla owners in my neighborhood (3) love their cars. Two S owners and one Model 3 owner. For two it is a 2nd car - the other being gasoline powered. One has two EV's - a Leaf and a Model 3. To say they are enthusiastic owners is a understatement.
 
Speaking of rats and ships, here is the list of executive departures:
Deparures since 2016
and Dave Morton, Gaby Toledano since then. I am sure the devaluation of share options is a contributor, in addition to Musk's style.
 
The love some people have for Tesla cars is more than most people can fathom.

Yesterday, I happened to run across some Youtube videos from a guy who looked to buy wrecked Teslas to rebuild. He paid $16.5K for a model S that had been rolled in an accident, and the body and frame were all smashed. He was hoping to salvage some parts to use to restore another Tesla with a better body but needs working electronics.

He lated bid on a Tesla that was submerged in Hurricane Harvey. Having lost out on earlier auctions, he was determined to get this one, and paid $20.5K. He's still tearing apart both vehicles, and it was interesting for me to see all the electronics and the mechanical parts in the Model S. It was more complicated than I had imagined.

Anyway, this guy is going to have a lot of work. The wrecked car had some decent looking electronics, but the various mounts for the suspension and motors were broken. The flooded car was in one piece, but there was corrosion everywhere, including the interior of some electronic boxes that were semi-sealed (can't blame Tesla for not building a submarine).

If you have time, and interested to see a guy pressure-washing the interior of a car, these videos are for you. :)
 
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Texas Proud said:
One of the things that bothers me is the market for the Model 3...
They talk about ramping up production to 10,000 per week... that would suggest 520,000 units a year... this would make it the best selling car in America!!! I do not think that will happen..
The first half of 2018 the Camry was the best selling at almost 179K units... so if the second half is the same as the first half then it would be 358K.... I do not see the Model 3 selling 45% more cars than the Camry... not at any price where they make money....
The numbers do not make sense... so the valuation does not make sense...
BTW, #10 on the list sold only 76K units in the first half... or less than 3,000 per week... nope, it does not compute...
https://www.motortrend.com/news/here-are-the-10-best-selling-cars-through-the-first-half-of-2018/
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The idea behind the ramp-up is that the price for the Model 3 will come down to the point where it will compete directly with mid-level sedans and not just the luxury market and early adopters. An SUV based on the Model 3 chassis (Model Y) should be out by the end of 2019, as well.

Keep in mind that Tesla advertising is currently word of mouth. Would actual advertising help sales? As many have said, the best Tesla salespeople are new owners. As more Teslas are sold and prices drop we should expect more converts will be won-over exponentially.

Due to volatility, I intend to continue to buy Tesla on big drops with quick sales as the stock recovers. Buying and holding will happen when I see the production issues smooth out and gross profits appear imminent.
 
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Here's a story from an early model S owner who is frustrated that he gets no help from Tesla once his car was out of warranty.

The date of the CNBC broadcast: Aug 28, 2018.

"As soon as I exceeded the warranty period the help, kindness, interaction all went away. I was treated like I didn't even own a Tesla".
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Financially, my thoughts on TSLA are that there is nothing, anywhere that supports a stock price of $300 and nothing, anywhere that supports investing in this company.

Love Elon, hate Elon, I don't care. Love EV's, hate EV's, I don't care. I don't buy stocks based on whether I like the CEO or anyone else in the company. I'm a value investor and TSLA holds no value.

If I were a growth investor, I might make a small gamble on TSLA because in my heart of hearts, I want Elon to be successful and I want EV's (and especially self driving EV's) to succeed. I like that future very much.
 
corn18 said:
Financially, my thoughts on TSLA are that there is nothing, anywhere that supports a stock price of $300 and nothing, anywhere that supports investing in this company.

Love Elon, hate Elon, I don't care. Love EV's, hate EV's, I don't care. I don't buy stocks based on whether I like the CEO or anyone else in the company. I'm a value investor and TSLA holds no value.

If I were a growth investor, I might make a small gamble on TSLA because in my heart of hearts, I want Elon to be successful and I want EV's (and especially self driving EV's) to succeed. I like that future very much.
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Just to let you know, if you own some MFs then you probably are dabbling in TSLA...



It is the #1 holding of Vanguard Extended Mkt index... and that is the point of an index is that you take a group and expect the whole group to go up, some winners and some losers...


I am sure it is in a good number of indexes...
 
Texas Proud said:
Just to let you know, if you own some MFs then you probably are dabbling in TSLA...



It is the #1 holding of Vanguard Extended Mkt index... and that is the point of an index is that you take a group and expect the whole group to go up, some winners and some losers...


I am sure it is in a good number of indexes...
Click to expand...

I know that. I was talking about buying TSLA on its own merit. I am sure I own a lot of stock in my index funds that I wouldn't buy individually.
 
A good company is not necessarily a good stock.
A good stock is not necessarily a good company.

From a recent WSJ review of the new Jaguar Electric SUV

But with more players to compare, it’s becoming obvious that Tesla’s advantage in powertrain tech won’t be so easily commodified or wished away. For example: The new I-Pace matches the Tesla Model X 75D in range (around 240 miles) but it requires a 20% larger battery to do so. The Model X is also 14 inches longer and 400 pounds heavier, so a whole class above in size.

And then there is charging. At a Level 2 home charger, a dead-empty I-Pace would take 12.9 hours to fully charge, according to Jaguar. For the same car at a public DC fast-charger (50kW), 30 minutes would yield about 60 miles of extra range. That’s assuming, in the moment of need, you can find convenient DC fast charging (the navi system will indicate these stations and help route-plan, if necessary). Chances are you’ll drive past one or more of Tesla’s hundreds of proprietary Supercharger stations along the way.
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:popcorn:
 
Watch the Volkswagen Group in the next two years, and Renault/Nissan. Together with Tesla scaling up those are the two unknown factors in Tesla's long term success.

Jaguar isn't mass market in my view. It competes on brand, styling, finish and exclusivity, not technology.
 
bobandsherry said:
Another example of lack of real leadership. How can a company make claims months ago on certain level of production and then not have logistics lined up to deliver the product? So they build their own carriers, have they thought about who is going to drive those? Or are they self driving too? Lol

https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-building-own-car-carriers-shortage-model-3-delivery-rush-week/
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It never ends with these guys. I suspect you are correct about a driver shortage. Car carrier operators are considered very highly skilled drivers. A carrier load of M3s could easily be valued at > 350k.
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208655-tesla-profitability-horizon-now-time-go-long

From the same article a pro-Tesla mantra for the most part but these two quote symoblize the typical Tesla investor, the same article and person says:
Investors have waited patiently for profits to materialize and the earnings potential is on the horizon as we head into 2020 and beyond. Shareholders will be rewarded if they use near-term headwinds to acquire shares below the $300 pricing level, as the upside appears north of $350 per share over the next 12 - 24 months.
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The company has $2.02 billion of debt coming due over the next 12 months and only $2.23 billion of cash on hand. Including working capital coming due over the next 12 months, the company needs to issue capital to sustain operations. No matter how many times I hit myself in the head, I can't comprehend why investors have bid the stock to ridiculous pricing levels.
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kgtest said:
Musk is being sued by SEC.
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Story here along with SEC document which does not look good for Musk:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html
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Musk stated that
Case 1:18-cv-08865 Document 1 Filed 09/27/18 Page 7 of 23

he rounded the price up to $420 because he had recently learned about the number’s significance in marijuana culture and thought his girlfriend “would find it funny, which admittedly is not a great reason to pick a price.

What the SEC is seeking as remediation: Main concern is people buying shares when Musk knew there was no chance of buyout of $420 as it had not been discussed beyond one 35 minute meeting:

Ordering that Defendant be prohibited from acting as an officer or director of any issuer that has a class of securities registered pursuant to Section 12 of the Exchange Act [
15 U.S.C. § 78l
] or that is required to file reports pursuant to Section 15(d) of the Exchange Act [
15 U.S.C
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James Stewart of WSJ says he thinks unsophisticated investors do not realize what Federal Authorities can do and that MUSK likely may face criminal charges, based on how many times Musk referred to short sellers in tweets as quoted by the SEC and his desire to harm them is the motive for a criminal case. I think that is hard to prove myself, but I do think Musk is done
 
I’m a bit surprised how seriously the going private tweet episode is being taken. I guess I’ve been numbed by all the nonsense over the years that hasn’t deterred the true believers. The Solar City acquisition was shadier IMO. Could be the straw....
 
Running_Man said:
James Stewart of WSJ says he thinks unsophisticated investors do not realize what Federal Authorities can do and that MUSK likely may face criminal charges, based on how many times Musk referred to short sellers in tweets as quoted by the SEC and his desire to harm them is the motive for a criminal case. I think that is hard to prove myself, but I do think Musk is done
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Someone needs to send him a box of short shorts. I'm guessing someone already has and if bot thr SEC sure did.
 
Y
jazz4cash said:
I’m a bit surprised how seriously the going private tweet episode is being taken. I guess I’ve been numbed by all the nonsense over the years that hasn’t deterred the true believers. The Solar City acquisition was shadier IMO. Could be the straw....
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Yeah SCTY surprised me. I almost went long on that before TSLA and musk had grand ideas to drive its profitavility jn the ground
 
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