Where did all the excitement go?

[donheff]

I looked for my copy of the wh** gif but couldn’t find it. Probably a good thing. My 11 year old grandson has become a trader. Definitely are harbinger of doom.

 

[Montecfo]

Citi came out with its bear market checklist which I find very interesting. The current reading is 7.5 (out of 18) and they recommend buying the dips when the index is below 10.

The article is here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/citi-has-updated-its-bear-market-checklist-heres-where-we-are-now-11619521167?mod=home-page

It is interesting. I do think most casual folks just look at the market averages and lament they are "too high" but some signals can provide context.

I am encouraged by the record market breadth and the cash on sidelines and moving out of equities.

 

[rt-texas]

NOOoooo! If you are both collecting SSI in eight years, something terrible must have happened! I sincerely hope it does not!

"SSI" is Supplemental Security Income. It is a federal welfare program that replaced a myriad of state programs years ago. It is funded from the federal general fund. But the Social Security Administration was tagged with administering it, as they had the system and expertise in payments and people. No SSA money goes into SSI.

So... I hope in eight years you are both on SS.
(I have become an avid reader of Tom Margenau since our newspaper picked up his column in the past year )

You are correct and I read Tom's column every week and still made the mistake. Not SSI in eight years but Social Security. Doh!

 

[W2R]

I looked for my copy of the wh** gif but couldn’t find it. Probably a good thing. My 11 year old grandson has become a trader. Definitely are harbinger of doom.

This one?

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

uh oh. One of these threads.

Is that why my largest holdings (Apple) came out with super duper blow it out of the park earnings...and was down by the end of the day?

 

[foxfirev5]

On the other hand - I've made the most money when I was nervous. But I still peeled a little off to extend my LMP.

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

uh oh. One of these threads.

Is that why my largest holdings (Apple) came out with super duper blow it out of the park earnings...and was down by the end of the day?

Classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" activity, no?

 

[aja8888]

Just buy the dip....

 

[W2R]

I am still just as excited!!! I thought maybe you all were getting tired of my happy posts about it. I guess not!

I just checked, and once again I have the highest total investments + bank account, ever!!! I am utterly thrilled.

And once again today! Every day, higher than ever before in my entire life. Such an astounding turn of events. I would have thought this to be the least likely of all possible outcomes during my old age.

 

[skipro33]

Personally, the market uptick is barely keeping up with what I see as costs rising. My groceries are higher, gas is higher, well, you name it, it costs more today than last year and by a lot. New cars are now even scarce. I wanted to have a deck built last March. Quoted $20,000 for materials and labor. My contactor now wants over $60,000 and that's cutting corners on my original design. As it was designed last year, it would be over $80,000. My portfolio sure didn't jump 4X like the price of that deck. He told me no worries when I balked at the sucker pricing for materials and labor, he had jobs backed up and would cross me off the list.
Materials was bad enough for price jump, but when I asked him to break out materials and labor, that original $20,000 deck quote last year now included $35,000 in labor this year. He told me $150 an hour for laborers and would take two guys.
I shake my head, wish him well and will find something else to spend my dough on than a bloated bid.

 

[Fermion]

I see what you see skipro, as we are building a house and just bought another round of expensive materials for the front and back deck. I can't imagine what it would cost if we had to hire labor, it is expensive as hell even doing the whole job ourselves.

But hey, the official inflation rate is only 3% or so, even though a 2x6 costs triple what it did last year and hurricane season isn't even in full swing yet. The van we bought a couple of years ago now sells for $10,000 more, Netflix raising prices, houses going for crazy offers.

I feel like we need 30% a year market returns now just to keep up!

 

[aja8888]

On a smaller scale, greens fees on a course I play with my friends just were raised 33%.

 

[NW-Bound]

uh oh. One of these threads.

Is that why my largest holdings (Apple) came out with super duper blow it out of the park earnings...and was down by the end of the day?

I saw that Microsoft also had good earnings. Market reaction: Sell, sell, sell...

On the other hand, Google and Facebook also had good earnings, and the reaction was: Buy, buy, buy...

I don't have any of the above stocks, but still pay some attention trying to understand what is going on.

Just buy the dip....

With what money? People here already blow all their dough left and right.

You want them to go on margin?

 

[RobbieB]

I sold a quarter mill on the top, I'm gonna blow more dough this year!

 

[audreyh1]

It's OUTRAGEOUS! I am OUTRAGED!!!

There, how about that?

I look at the market each morning and scratch my head. I can't figure it out, but I am pretty happy with my returns over the last several years.

+1

Scratching head. Amazed at NW. It crossed another seemingly elusive threshold this year and I just stared in disbelief! Can’t help wondering when part of it will go “poof”. That’s certainly happened before.

In the meantime I’m glad my withdrawal method lets me take out more $ at the top.

 

[Lsbcal]

+1

Scratching head. Amazed at NW. Wondering when part of it will go “poof”.

I’m glad my withdrawal method lets me take out more $ at the top.

How does that work? And where is the top?

 

[audreyh1]

How does that work? And where is the top?

By definition, since I use the % of remaining portfolio withdrawal method which means more absolute $ as the portfolio grows and grows.

Until it doesn’t.

Then I know that I withdrew at the (recent) top last time, LOL!

Coarse top calling as I only withdraw around Jan 2nd or so based on the Dec 31 value. I ignore what happens the rest of the year.

 

[RobbieB]

What's a withdrawal method?

I just convert whatever I'll need. Always changes, always will.

 

[audreyh1]

What's a withdrawal method?

I just convert whatever I'll need. Always changes, always will.

Most people here know what a withdrawal method is.

Yours is obviously the RobbieB Withdrawal Method.

Mine actually has me withdrawing funds regardless of what I might need. I have to figure out what to do with it all every year, LOL!

 

[RobbieB]

So you do the stock & bond sale even though you don't need to?

 

[NW-Bound]

My withdrawal method is also like Robbie's. When the balance of the checking account is low, I transfer some money into it to bring it back up.

It's just that there is not a whole lot I want or need to spend money on. Without travel, it's just food and utility bills, and that's not much.

PS. I never have to sell anything in the investable accounts, because I always have plenty of cash sitting around.

 

[audreyh1]

So you do the stock & bond sale even though you don't need to?

Sure. That’s my method. Each year I harvest (take out) as much as my portfolio will allow according to my model. I’m still only withdrawing 3% of my retirement portfolio each year which is probably too modest.

It usually doesn’t involve much selling in taxable because I take all my distributions in cash. But I still have to rebalance afterwards and that usually involves some selling and buying anyway. I maintain a target AA for my retirement portfolio.

I’m glad we have extra recently, we have some serious BTDs hoped for this year.

 

[RobbieB]

Hoped for?

Like if you don't have the dough and you already pulled the 3%, sorry, wait until next year and hope for the best?

 

[audreyh1]

Hoped for?

Like if you don't have the dough and you already pulled the 3%, sorry, wait until next year and hope for the best?

No, we have plenty of funds.

Hoped for has to do with availability of what we are trying to buy.

 

[foxfirev5]

Availability is a serious issue. I got my boat put in the water the other day and the guys at the marina were swamped. People are trying to buy anything out there. The dealer told me they are sold out of Mastercraft ski boats for the year. Even pontoon boats are scarce. On top of that parts shortages are backing up the service dept. And don't get me started on lakefront real estate prices.

I can't imagine how this is not going to lead to significant inflation. Money everywhere and scarcity of goods.