BA.2 variant - new study suggests severity concerns

[RetMD21]

I thought this was reassuring about BA2. Reinfections after BA1 occur but are rare, generally mild and mostly in the unvaccinated. Perhaps the big BA1 surge will protect much of the US time will tell

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1

 

[Gumby]

It’s not seasonal. I don’t get the constant seasonal banter. We’ve had spikes at many different times of the year in the US. Yes, winter “season” spikes can be high due to holiday family gatherings that so far have driven major outbreaks, but we’ve had spikes in mid or later summer, early fall, whenever a new major variant shows up, different parts of the country…. It’s not like Covid goes away during the summer and shows up again late fall.

And as you point out, Southern Hemisphere spikes especially with new variants occur at about the same time.

The lows are when the current variant has finally died down, just waiting for the next one…..

I have envisioned it as a wildfire that has been beaten down, but not quite extinguished. It will smolder along until it reaches a new source of fuel, then flare back up. That could occur by virus mutation or by the virus reaching previously isolated populations.

 

[tmm99]

Holidays definitely raise our numbers for sure, but I wonder if our numbers would be lower if major holidays were in the middle of summer enjoyed outdoors? Also Vit D exposure becomes very low in the wintertime especially like here in Canada and that may be a factor as well. Just like colds and flus and other respiratory illnesses become more rampant in the winter months when people congregate more indoors where the air is not opmimal, I think COVID works similar...

 

[RetMD21]

I have envisioned it as a wildfire that has been beaten down, but not quite extinguished. It will smolder along until it reaches a new source of fuel, then flare back up. That could occur by virus mutation or by the virus reaching previously isolated populations.

if not isolated at least more susceptible. I think the good news for the US is that the widespread BA1 seems to be fading and there is no example of a country going into a big BA2 spike after BA1. Denmark seems to have been hit by more BA2 than BA1 and then they lifted restrictions as cases were increasing

 

[audreyh1]

Except that people gather indoors in the south with hot summers and air conditioning. So that flus and cold aren’t common in the summer seems odd. Yet Covid definitely had major late summer outbreaks. But a lot of it has been driven by new variants so it’s all quite murky.

 

[tmm99]

Except that people gather indoors in the south with hot summers and air conditioning. So that flus and cold aren’t common in the summer seems odd. Yet Covid definitely had major late summer outbreaks. But a lot of it has been driven by new variants so it’s all quite murky.

Hmm.... Not sure why COVID is so different from flus and colds... Maybe the high transmissibility characteristic of COVID beats the odds...

 

[pacergal]

This Omicron subtype seems to be fueling the rising rates in Europe and possibly China, according to an article I read on my news app.
Sorry, don't know how to upload but the article is titled:
"Covid cases climb in Europe as restriction ease and BA.2 sub variant spreads" by Erik Ortiz
He uses data from Johns Hopkins.
It will only be a matter of time before rates rise again here, in my opinion. Still many folks unvaccinated.

We have medium to low transmission rates here, however, DH and I will continue to mask, and move about our lives.

 

[JRon]

We went back to normal, pre-covid, living about a year ago - after vaccinations. I got Covid a few weeks ago - felt like a bad cold and flu for about 36 hours and we quarantined for full 10 days. Wife did not get it even though we didn’t quarantine from each other. We’ve already taken one trip this year and have several more planned. Life is good!

 

[audreyh1]

This Omicron subtype seems to be fueling the rising rates in Europe and possibly China, according to an article I read on my news app.
Sorry, don't know how to upload but the article is titled:
"Covid cases climb in Europe as restriction ease and BA.2 sub variant spreads" by Erik Ortiz
He uses data from Johns Hopkins.
It will only be a matter of time before rates rise again here, in my opinion. Still many folks unvaccinated.

We have medium to low transmission rates here, however, DH and I will continue to mask, and move about our lives.

Here is the article https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-cases-rising-uk-what-to-expect-us-rcna19891
We really don’t know how it’s going to play out in the US. Other countries like South Africa did not see another rise while BA.2 grew to 100% of cases. Lots of different factors in play.

Regarding the OP, I’ve heard/read several times on various platforms that the initial preprint in rodents did not match the real world experience with the BA.2 variant. Osterholm himself said that there was no indication of more severe disease compared to Omicron BA.1.

Nevertheless I guess we get to watch another round worldwide. Fingers crossed that US cases drop quite a bit more before we experience another rise. Yet there are already reports of sewage increased detections of Covid in several parts of the country. Also, I noticed yesterday that Texas cases were starting to move up again, darn it!

ETA:From today’s NYTimes Covid page I see some other states are starting to tick up too, darn it!

 

[Alectoris]

I pity the fool that messes with BA 2.0....

 

[Freedom56]

I went to my new doctor at Cedars Sinai for a check-up. My previous doctor whom I have been seeing every year for the past 25 years has finally retired and is no longer seeing patients. He was in his mid 70's. We discussed COVID boosters (we still have not received our booster) and the doctor admitted that the effectiveness of and mRNA booster is questionable with the current variants in circulation. I told him that my parents who are in their 80's are now up to their 4th shot and it's not clear how many more they will recommend and I did not want to go down that path. He did mention that updates to the vaccines were coming and he agreed that wearing N95 masks offered the best protection from contracting COVID at this time. I passed on the booster and elected to wait until Pfizer version 2 is authorized for use. He also stated that the vast majority of people that are dying from COVID are unvaccinated and tend to be unmasked when they get infected. He mentioned that immune compromised people are more cautious and tend to wear more protective masks. The rationale for easing restrictions, in his opinion, is that unvaccinated are at the most risk and it will be impossible to keep the economy operating with restrictions to the detriment of the majority that have vaccinated. Therefore this country is willing to tolerate 1000-1500 deaths per day.

I personally think COVID is far from over. The lockdowns we see in China at the first sign of an outbreak in an indication that there are some long term effects of the virus in the human body that China may be concerned about and we don't fully understand here. We plan to wear N95 masks in high risk indoor situations.

 

[Chuckanut]

Yes, Covid cases are rising again in some of Europe, including a country I am interested in visiting later this year. Just call me Lucky.

 

[Gumby]

Could you maybe tell us your travel plans for the next year or so? That way we can know where to avoid. Thanks.

 

[RetMD21]

I went to my new doctor at Cedars Sinai for a check-up. My previous doctor whom I have been seeing every year for the past 25 years has finally retired and is no longer seeing patients. He was in his mid 70's. We discussed COVID boosters (we still have not received our booster) and the doctor admitted that the effectiveness of and mRNA booster is questionable with the current variants in circulation.

The hospitalization rates have been lower for boosted patients than non boosted during the Omicron waves and actual experts recommend the booster

I told him that my parents who are in their 80's are now up to their 4th shot and it's not clear how many more they will recommend and I did not want to go down that path. He did mention that updates to the vaccines were coming and he agreed that wearing N95 masks offered the best protection from contracting COVID at this time.

Well Pfizer has just applied for a 4th dose booster for over 65 using the same formulation and there have been no trials showing any benefit of a new version

I passed on the booster and elected to wait until Pfizer version 2 is authorized for use. He also stated that the vast majority of people that are dying from COVID are unvaccinated and tend to be unmasked when they get infected. He mentioned that immune compromised people are more cautious and tend to wear more protective masks. The rationale for easing restrictions, in his opinion, is that unvaccinated are at the most risk and it will be impossible to keep the economy operating with restrictions to the detriment of the majority that have vaccinated. Therefore this country is willing to tolerate 1000-1500 deaths per day.

I personally think COVID is far from over. The lockdowns we see in China at the first sign of an outbreak in an indication that there are some long term effects of the virus in the human body that China may be concerned about and we don't fully understand here. We plan to wear N95 masks in high risk indoor situations.

i'm with you on being careful and wearing good masks but I'm taking vacines as recommended

 

[Freedom56]

The hospitalization rates have been lower for boosted patients than non boosted during the Omicron waves and actual experts recommend the booster



Well Pfizer has just applied for a 4th dose booster for over 65 using the same formulation and there have been no trials showing any benefit of a new version




i'm with you on being careful and wearing good masks but I'm taking vacines as recommended

We have been wearing N95 masks starting in February 2020 and have travelled prior to and after our vaccinations multiple times including two international trips. We have had multiple PCR and antigen tests and never tested positive. N95 masks when worn properly still offers the best protection from infection available to the public. I have no issues with vaccines and get them regularly. But six months after our second dose of Pfizer, we were advised to get a booster to protect ourselves from the Omicron variant despite the fact that both Pfizer and Moderna stated that neither of their vaccines will prevent infections from Omicron and other derivatives. The CDC and public health officials have been inconsistent throughout this pandemic. We ignored their initial recommendation that wearing masks was not necessary and wore N95 masks for protection. Then masks were mandated. We thought their recommendations on wearing cloth masks was ridiculous. My wife was a surgical nurse and couldn't believe what some of these clowns were saying about the protection from cloth masks. Then cloth masks were deemed to be ineffective and N95 masks are finally recommended by some public health officials but not the CDC. When it was time to get our vaccine, we were initially offered the J&J vaccine and we said no. We didn't buy the bogus claims and the poor efficacy of this single shot vaccine. We got the Pfizer vaccine after our parents, and my brother, who is a doctor, and my sister-in-law, who is a nurse, reported no side effects. Then the J&J vaccine was deemed to be ineffective and the CDC stated that it should have been a two dose regimen.

Public health officials are not Gods. Many aren't even doctors and many don't have any medical training. We are going to stay safe and continue to wear N95 masks in high risk situations. Right now they are giving these masks away for free at Rite-Aid, CVS, and Walgreens and nobody wants them. Two years ago, scalpers were selling N95 masks for as much as $15-$20 each. Go figure.

 

[RetMD21]

But six months after our second dose of Pfizer, we were advised to get a booster to protect ourselves from the Omicron variant despite the fact that both Pfizer and Moderna stated that neither of their vaccines will prevent infections from Omicron and other derivatives.

Really, they said that? Link please. Pfizer has applied for the 4th dose for Omicron. Eric Topol MD posted a graph on Twitter yesterday showing 86% reduction for Omicron death for 2 doses vs 96% for 3 doses in Switzerland. Sure, you get more bang for your buck with the first 2 doses but the third helps as well. I see no downside.

 

[audreyh1]

There are two issues: infection and severe disease.

None of the vaccines significantly prevent infection from Omicron, although it does seem to reduce infection risk.

Severe disease, including hospitalization and death is the biggie, and a boosters provides much higher protection against that compared to just the two vaccine doses, even for younger people like 18-49.

 

[Alan]

I don’t know if it is new variants or the removal of all restrictions in England that has caused the recent upward surge in infections. Deaths from Covid have not increased but hospitalization is increasing again (back up to 14k now in hospital with Covid) and that affects all patients needing hospital care. Scotland is also seeing infections and hospitalizations increase so have postponed their planned removal of restrictions.

 

[audreyh1]

It seems to me that much if Europe and UK completely dropped restrictions not that long ago. So that would seem to explain a surge, but Scotland indicates otherwise.

Hard to predict what will happen in the US as so many states have had no restrictions for so long. We already got hit really hard by Omicron 1.

 

[RetMD21]

Now Moderna has asked for approval for a second booster (4th dose) for all adults vs Pfizer's restriction to 65+.

 

[audreyh1]

The companies are pushing hard for 2nd booster, but there hasn’t been any evidence that I can see of benefit of increased protection other than for those who are immunocompromised.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I went to my doc yesterday for my annual med renewal and review, here is what he shared. He told me that based on his opinion and that of his colleagues, Covid as we experienced last year and the year before is basically over barring some new strain (As opposed to Variant) and should be of no concern for folks like me. Of course, the CDC will err on the side of caution as they should, that is a good thing, as folks can get complacent. I did not have to wear a mask while in his consulting office.

He explained that the issue is still with the unvaccinated and severely compromised folks getting sick, and one cannot control that. They would have trouble if they got influenza let alone Covid. The folks with 2 vaxed and a single booster are about as protected as one can get. I have the second, that he said could not do any harm. He said he thought we are now in Endemic mode as we are with the Flu.

This is just my personal experience YMMV.

Flagler hospital as of this week had Zero (0) covid cases and our county has less than 1.6% positivity.

 

[Aerides]

...and should be of no concern for folks like me....
He explained that the issue is still with the unvaccinated and severely compromised folks getting sick, and one cannot control that.

Trouble is, those folks still flood the hospitals with every new variant and strain, so even if I don't get sick, other care is a challenge if I, or someone I love, needs non-covid treatment.

Cleveland Clinic here in S. Fla resumed elective surgeries just month ago. I'd hate to need a new knee, or a biospy for something, or anything needing hospitalization for non-covid treatment, and be put on a wait list, not be able to have normal visitors, etc.

 

[Chuckanut]

The companies are pushing hard for 2nd booster, but there hasn’t been any evidence that I can see of benefit of increased protection other than for those who are immunocompromised.

+1

I am also waiting for the Novavax vaccine. It works differently than the mRNA and I have read several opinions that Novavax and mRNA might fill in the gaps each has in regards to immunity. Basically, some believe Novavax may give better long-term immunity to infection. But, this has NOT been verified by any studies that I know of. It sounds reasonable, but lots of things in human health sound reasonable, and end up being nonsense at best and harmful at worst.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Trouble is, those folks still flood the hospitals with every new variant and strain, so even if I don't get sick, other care is a challenge if I, or someone I love, needs non-covid treatment.

Cleveland Clinic here in S. Fla resumed elective surgeries just month ago. I'd hate to need a new knee, or a biospy for something, or anything needing hospitalization for non-covid treatment, and be put on a wait list, not be able to have normal visitors, etc.

There does not seem to be that issue here. Because of our age we have a lot of friends that need stuff done. Here are some personal examples YMMV.

1 Hip replacement - 2 weeks wait (Pretty Normal)

Next door neighbor had a heart flutter and dizzy spell while playing tennis 4 days ago. Was admitted after 4 hours of tests in the ER. Home as of yesterday morning.

I had an endoscopy 2 months ago that was scheduled 1 week after docs visit.

So not so bad. Our health system here in the North East has been really good for us over the years.