... NREL says each dollar of electric bills that are reduced by your solar system will increase your resale value by $20. $20 * $1700 = $34,000 -- a great return on my $22k investment, ....
Zillow says homes with solar system sell for 4% more than those without.
Sounds like fuzzy math.
So I could buy a house w/o solar, add it on for $22K, and have a new system with a new warranty, or pay $34K for an old system with fewer years warranty, and more expenses looming (inverter replacement, roof repairs?)? Color me skeptical.
I suspect the Zillow data follows the same logical fallacy as a Freakonomics study I read about. It was determined that homes with lots of books were correlated to children who did well in school, so a well-meaning group decided to buy books to put in all the school's kids homes.
But it wasn't the books that made the difference, it was the fact that those homes valued books, and that was reflected in how they raised their children. The books were the effect, not the cause.
So I suspect that on average, people who invest in solar plan to live in that home for many years, and maintain it and treat it well.
... But also I think it's more accurate to think of my solar system investment as an "annuity." If you buy an annuity, it pays you $X per year for your lifetime or other period. Similarly my solar system will erase my electric bill, which (given my usage patterns in the last several years) will save me about $1700 per year. The solar system, after IRA credits, cost just over $22k. $1700 return on a $22k investment is just under 8% per year -- ...
I think I said this earlier - an annuity is a good analogy, because you are giving up your principal. So it's not an 8% return on your investment, it's an 8% return
of your investment. If the value of the system is near zero in 30 years, that's a 3.3% hit on your 'return', so closer to 5% return (more/less, depending on maintenance costs, degradation, or rates rising faster than inflation. And a 30 year investment with an inflation adjusted 3.3% WR, will very likely have increased in value.
-ERD50