Bonds Suc&k...

:angel:

Hello Steve...

Just to ask. Who is wrong?

No problem if it's me. I've been wrong with my friends all my life... and we're good friends.

I still think bonds suck.

You relied on a salespersons promise? You thought a 9% return was safe and reliable? It’s fine to think bonds suck and exclude them but painting with such a broad brush usually is not constructive. I love my non callable bonds paying 4-7% because the income is reliable for a few years expenses. I don’t need to worry about selling stocks in a down market.
 
... financial pundits define risk as volatility which is a total scam IMHO. I define risk in more literal terms: a possibility of real capital loss. ...
I agree. In Markowitz' 1952 paper he casually postulates that standard deviation is a measure of risk but without any justification. He was proposing a mathematical-looking approach to investing, so a quantitative measure of risk was necessary. From this, SD became intrinsic to Modern Portfolio Theory and eventually infected everything. The other problem is that SD really doesn't have any meaning for distributions that are not normal/aka gaussian and for distributions where the samples are not independent. Both are characteristic of the market. I guess it worked for Markowitz, though, as he got a Nobel out of it.

Nassim Taleb is quite nasty on this subject.

The real capital loss due to volatility is quite real to me as I withdraw funds annually based on end of year portfolio value. Annual income varies. So for me annual volatility = risk.
WADR that's kind of like saying the fence is red because I painted it red. Interesting but not significant.
 
I agree. In Markowitz' 1952 paper he casually postulates that standard deviation is a measure of risk but without any justification. He was proposing a mathematical-looking approach to investing, so a quantitative measure of risk was necessary. From this, SD became intrinsic to Modern Portfolio Theory and eventually infected everything. The other problem is that SD really doesn't have any meaning for distributions that are not normal/aka gaussian and for distributions where the samples are not independent. Both are characteristic of the market. I guess it worked for Markowitz, though, as he got a Nobel out of it.

Nassim Taleb is quite nasty on this subject.
Indeed he is. +1
 
Disney Steve said:
....they move in opposite directions so when stocks have a bad year, bonds help buffer the losses.
This is often repeated, but I have not seen evidence of it.
Here's some evidence:

Since 1972 when 10yr Tbond data data is available, 60/40 "US Stock Market" / 10yr Tbond tracked the stock market pretty well. The market gained more in go-go periods, but it took a bigger fall when things went south.

In that 50+ yr period,
* 100% stocks returned about 1% more annually than 60/40. But that is mostly because we're in a 15-year bull run. When we have our next crash, Stocks will probably lose their advantage, just like they did many times before.
* Stocks' Sharpe ratio was a bit lower, and the max drawdown for stocks (-51%) was nearly twice as large (-28%).
* The worst year for stocks was -37% vs. -28% for 60/40.
* From 8/2000 to 2/2009, stocks were down 40%. 60/40 was UP almost 2%.

It doesn't always work -- see 2022 for a huge example. But in general it does.

See the stats & charts in the middle of this report:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=JIAAVMSfxPeirs0paXZ2D
 
No bond funds here. Am a fan of individual bonds but don't wish to spend too much time there either.

Yeah, I've been burned by bond funds. If interest rates rise and the market value goes down and investors want out, they have to sell at a loss to pay off those investors. With individual bonds, I can hold to maturity (or call) as long as I'm not concerned about default and get the promised yield. I've still got way more in equities than the old "100 minus your age" rule and it's served me well over the long run.

I do find it a bit disconcerting that I now own bonds that will mature when I'm 100.:rolleyes:
 
It seems to me that what sucks more is that you don't have any bond investment policies or discipline.

It is crazy to invest more than a certain percentage of your bond portfolio in a single credit... even a blue chip like GM... it is important to diversify. We often say the same thing to equity investors who have an outsize percentage of their portfolio in a single stock... concentration risk... the same things need to be done for bonds... diversification. Other than full faith and credit, I limit my bonds in any single credit to 1.25% of my total bond portfolio... so even if it totally fails is is a tolerable impact.

Same thing for callable... you need to have balance between callable bonds and non-callable bonds. If calls caused her pain then grandma obviously had too much in callable bonds. Again... diversify. I've had some 6%+ agency bonds called recently but its ok... I got 6+% for a while and can still reinvest at decent rates.

And actually, there are some people who get rich investing in bonds... they are called life insurance companies... I used to work for one. You may have heard of a few like Northwetern Mutual Life, Prudential, Mass Mutual and a host of others. Most of their investments are in bonds and they are very good and very disciplined at it.

I was the Treasurer of a large Insurance Company. I have bond experience. I turned down an opportunity to buy Lehman in the early 2000's. Our company did fine with hundreds of individual, well diversified bonds. That said, I don't know of of an individual person who has gotten wealthy investing in bonds.

Owning them once you're wealthy is different.


As for Grandma. She got taken by an Edward Jones salesman (not a bond expert) who sold her the bond of the month flavor. She survived the depression and was deathly ascared of stocks while she put her faith in bonds. How the world is a 75 tear old lady able to research a company about its bonds? She relied on the promise of a nice guy in a suit telling her she was guaranteed 9% return with the safe word of "bond".

I guess my reason to post this (I'm the OP) is buyer beware. Bonds aren't the safe haven people think they are. If you need to "Do your research and investigate every bond you buy!" He!!, just buy a CD at your local bank. Plug that into the long term research and see how it stacks up against bonds.

Keep what you need in cash. It wouldn't be much behind the 1.61% return of the bond market this last 10 years. Vanguard MM is over 5% today.

Off my stump. We're all friends and I don't want to see my friends get hurt.
 
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Rants are good for the soul.
 
You relied on a salespersons promise? You thought a 9% return was safe and reliable? It’s fine to think bonds suck and exclude them but painting with such a broad brush usually is not constructive. I love my non callable bonds paying 4-7% because the income is reliable for a few years expenses. I don’t need to worry about selling stocks in a down market.

Please give us more information on a non callable bond paying 7%.
 
I was there. I bought equities like they were on sale. No bonds.

When equities are 50% down, they effectively are on sale. Buy!

But what did you buy them with? If you're still w*rking and adding to the stash (as DW and I have been doing for the last 20+ years), fine. But once you're retired and not generating income, where does the money come from to buy the on sale equities? If your AA is 100/0, you can't.

Bonds dampen the portfolio's volatility (SORR) and provide the funds to buy equities when they are on sale.
 
You [actually Grandma] relied on a salespersons promise? You thought a 9% return was safe and reliable?

Yeah, this Grandma wouldn't buy that. If there's one thing I learned from watching American Greed, and one thing I want to teach my grandchildren, it's "low risk, low return, high risk, high return". If someone promises you high return with no risk, run because it's either a lie, a Ponzi scheme or both.

I did see CDs with double-digit returns in the 1980s but I don't think they kept up with the rampant inflation at the time.
 
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This is often repeated, but I have not seen evidence of it. While it's true that stocks loose value faster, my experience in , when was it, 1987, when we joked our 401k turned into a 201k, my bonds dropped like a rock, just not as far as stocks. When there's a flight to cash, there's no asset class that's not getting impacted. Nothing zigs when stocks zag...that would be too easy. I do buy into the risk adjusted return argument, so hold a guaranteed income fund. That allows me to buy equities low, when everyone else is running for the hills.

The way I've understood it from reading books and articles from many financial folks - Bogle, Clements, etc, is that bonds & equities move independently of each other. Not opposite. Big difference. Some years both tank. Some years, both thrive. Other years, go opposite ways.

Bond funds must also be matched to the right time horizon for best results: I think many people were told intermediate bond funds are "safe" investments. They are in the long term, but definitely not for near-term spending needs - i.e., next 3-5 years. Even short term bond funds aren't ideal for 1-4 year near-term spending vs CDs, MMs, Tbills.

Storing funds in mm/cds sure didn't feel too good to me when rates were 1% and I was chasing .10 changes in yield - which wasn't that long ago. Cash instruments look appealing now - but that can sure change fast.

And as brutal as bond declines were, the drops still tend to be lower than those brutal stock bear markets: most bonds didn't tank 30-50% Stocks can and eventually will have those really bad days.

Many who hold 90-100% stock allocations have a pension, inheritance or RE income - but may not disclose that safety net when advising others to go heavier in equity.

I'm not loving bonds either right now, but in a diversified portfolio that I must live on, something is always down, while something else is up. I live with that volatility and look long term.
 
Many who hold 90-100% stock allocations have a pension, inheritance or RE income - but may not disclose that safety net when advising others to go heavier in equity.

Yeah, I'm nowhere near 90-100% and don't intend to go there but SS plus two pensions totalling $1,800/month) would cover most of my essentials. The bonds would allow me to draw from my investments while waiting for the equities to recover.
 
Many years ago, there was a show called Wall Street Week. The host was a very smart and entertaining man named Luis Rukeyser. Every year he would interview John Templeton (look him up if you don’t recognize the name) a famed stock investor. Mr. Templeton’s advice regarding stocks vs bonds was simple. “Invest in common stocks for growth. If you need income, sell some of the growth.”


Loved WSW.



Love that comment in bold. That's my philosophy. I have monster gains in my equity ETF's, if I have to sell some when they've come down who cares? its not like I sell a huge % off of the portfolio....I think that idea of "I don't want to have to sell stocks when they have come down" is silly. Does that mean people think they should only sell stocks when they are at their all time highs?
 
. As for Grandma. She got taken by an Edward Jones salesman (not a bond expert) who sold her the bond of the month.
. Ahh that explains a lot. Good Ole Ed Jones. What a bunch of crooks. My folks had an IRA and some individual stocks when they passed. I inherited it and it was such a pain in the ass to figure out how to invest it and what their fees were. And if I wanted to sell something or buy something I had to call my Ed Jones rep. After a year of that BS I cashed it all out and rolled it into Schwab. Had some taxes to deal with but at least it was no longer with those crooks.
 
Keep what you need in cash. It wouldn't be much behind the 1.61% return of the bond market this last 10 years. Vanguard MM is over 5% today.

Off my stump. We're all friends and I don't want to see my friends get hurt.


You keep talking about the CURRENT MM rate vs the various returns on bonds... but the MM rate was LOW the past 10 years...


The return for Vanguard MM is..


1 year, 5.18
3 year, 2.35
5 year, 1.88
10 year, 1.25


Life of fund from 1981 is 3.91...


Soooo, holding 10 year bonds beat the MM account over a 10 year period if your number is correct....



Now, the 10 year has been highly impacted by the quick and very high rise in the interest rates over the last few years... this made the price of them go way down... that is why a LOT of banks are sitting on huge portfolio losses on their treasury holdings...


Bonds are a tool in a portfolio... they can be used for different reason but they DO take away risk... I only recently got into bonds as I have now retired... I was almost 100% stock before... if you do not want to use that tool then do not... it does not mean that the tool sucks...



But, my current yield on my 'bond' holdings is 8.2% with a decent pct of cap gain... and that does not include YTM on some of my holdings but real cash return... I say bonds but I do have preferred shares that I treat as bonds... I am heavy into the higher BBB ratings with some down a level or two and some above...
 
We are lucky to have a very well funded plan and could be 100% equities or 100% fixed income. Was 60/40 for many ER years and then ditched equities as they seemed quite overvalued... they have gone up since and still seem overvalued compared to historical valuation levels.

Currently only ~3% equities but I do plan to gradually increase to 15% or so and 25% or so in preferred stocks, 15% investment grade corporate bonds and 45% ballast... full faith and credit FDIC CDs or US Treasuries and Aaa agency bonds.

I've recently bought a lot of preferred stocks from investment grade issuers (Allstate, JPM, MetLife, Citigroup, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Schwab, and the like) with a weighted average yield of 7.3%. I also have about 20 investment grade corporate bonds yielding about 5.5%. Overall fixed income yield is about 5.3% and exceeds our WR by a wide margin.

Many folks have meaningful portion of holdings in taxable accounts. I won't make a big move in equities due most have low basis and tax impact it would trigger. Helps me ride the storms.
 
You keep talking about the CURRENT MM rate vs the various returns on bonds... but the MM rate was LOW the past 10 years...


The return for Vanguard MM is..


1 year, 5.18
3 year, 2.35
5 year, 1.88
10 year, 1.25


Life of fund from 1981 is 3.91...


Soooo, holding 10 year bonds beat the MM account over a 10 year period if your number is correct....



Now, the 10 year has been highly impacted by the quick and very high rise in the interest rates over the last few years... this made the price of them go way down... that is why a LOT of banks are sitting on huge portfolio losses on their treasury holdings...


Bonds are a tool in a portfolio... they can be used for different reason but they DO take away risk... I only recently got into bonds as I have now retired... I was almost 100% stock before... if you do not want to use that tool then do not... it does not mean that the tool sucks...



But, my current yield on my 'bond' holdings is 8.2% with a decent pct of cap gain... and that does not include YTM on some of my holdings but real cash return... I say bonds but I do have preferred shares that I treat as bonds... I am heavy into the higher BBB ratings with some down a level or two and some above...

Yup... bonds wooooped the hell out of cds. exept for the bonds that tanked ( I can name them..)tanked.
 
And nobody saw that bonds would tank coming unless they were either not paying attention or not reading this forum.

Just saying... lots of us were expressing concerns about interest rate risk back then.
 
Easy to have some sympathy with OP. Inflation adjusted, BND has done nothing since spring of 2009, so 15 years with absolutely zero inflation adjusted return, even after dividends. But all those dividends did generate taxes, so a net loss. That's a long time to most investors.

My wild guess at the future is that they will do OK going forward, unless of course, the government notices that they did inflate away 20% of the national debt in 2021-23 and still only have to pay around 5% to borrow, so if they do that just one more time, lenders won't punish them much and they can keep spending like Buzz Lightyear - To Infinity and Beyond!
 
The real capital loss due to volatility is quite real to me as I withdraw funds annually based on end of year portfolio value. Annual income varies. So for me annual volatility = risk.
A lot of time this kind of thinking is mental accounting. Yes, you may have to sell down equity for living expenses at times but that is a fraction of your total portfolio. The idea is that the previous gains of the equity portfolio outweighs the return of bond/ballanced portfolio and hence the "loss" is really not there. The total equity portfolio will be ahead to bond/balanced portfolio after everything is said and done.

Unless you subscribe to "die with zero" mentality, volatility doesn't necessarily mean loss of capital. If you have "die with zero" portfolio then you can still use equity glide path to largely dampen the effects of SORR.

PS: Speaking of SORR, all safe withdrawal studies assume that you withdraw SWR percent of the portfolio on the "first" year only. You withdraw (previous year withdrawal * (1+(last year CPI))) for all subsequent years. If you withdraw (SWR*portfolio) every year then you are essentially re-starting SORR chain every year.
 
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^^^I’m using a different withdrawal method - the % Remaining Portfolio method. FIREcalc also models this and I’ve run model over many scenarios. With this withdrawal method you never run out of money, but under the worst case scenario scenarios you can suffer a large inflation-adjusted shrinkage (max drawdown) over many years. Asset allocation has an impact on the degree of max drawdown.

My goal is not to have maximized portfolio value when I die. I do hope to draw most of it while we are living including gifting to heirs while living. We have no children.

This is simply a personal choice driven by personal circumstances and goals. For some folks volatility does matter more for various reasons.
 
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I do find it a bit disconcerting that I now own bonds that will mature when I'm 100.:rolleyes:

What a hassle. Imagine having to take time out from your latest adventure cruise to figure out where to reinvest the proceeds from the maturing bonds. :D

I don’t go longer than 10 years, and my few 10 year bonds are TIPS bought at the recent higher rates. I’d love to say it was shrewd investment planning on my part, but it’s more luck in that the TIPS rate jumped up just when I decided to stretch my ladder a bit farther out.

OTOH, my few 6+% Agency bonds are now gone. It’s life.
 
... Since I started investing at age 22 in 1987 I have been preached to include bonds as a part of my portfolio. Now at age 59 I am supposed to have about 40% of my money in bonds. ...

Says who? Or, more importantly, what's the reasoning behind this? I think it's just an old outdated rule of thumb. A historical analysis, like FIRECalc or FICalc.app won't tell you you are 'supposed' to have 100- age in bonds.

How do you win?
...
Play the right game.

... So 40% of my portfolio is a boat anchor. I realize the SP 500 funds are more volatile. ...

I know many, many people who have gotten wealthy investing in stock equities and real estate. Not a one by investing in bonds.

My rant on bonds is over. I'll duck now.


This is what I mean by playing the right game. You are misapplying what bonds are for in a portfolio, and then state they do a lousy job at it (a job they aren't supposed to do).

It's like complaining that a ratchet wrench makes a lousy voltmeter.

Bonds aren't to "make you rich". They are there to add some stability to a portfolio (and nothing is perfect). In retirement, with a modest allocation to bonds, you can weather a drop in equities, take the divs, and sell some of the fixed side if needed. Sure, this didn't work out so great in the recent dip, but as I said, nothing is perfect.

If you apply the same thinking to stocks, you'd point to a downturn and say "Stocks suc&k", and go on a rant.

Bonds/fixed income are fine for when used appropriately and with reasonable expectations.

-ERD50
 
What a hassle. Imagine having to take time out from your latest adventure cruise to figure out where to reinvest the proceeds from the maturing bonds. :D

I've actually got a couple of separately managed bond accounts- one for munis, one for taxables. They buy and sell individual bonds, which are held in my name. Some gurus I never met make those decisions. Yes, they rake off a percentage but I'm happy with the net results. The muni people in particular are very much buy-and-hold and rarely sell unless they see a default risk increasing. They're good about reinvesting any proceeds quickly.
 
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