dex
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- Joined
- Oct 28, 2003
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- 5,105
If I'm reading the chart correctly we have another 8 -10 years or so before another expansion phase. We are in the secondary recession.
The average bear market is about 16 years. So if this one started in 2000 then K wave and the avg bear market is saying similar things.
From this info we should not be surprised by all the news stories to come about increases in poverty, people saving and reducing debt etc.
Kondratieff Long Wave Cycles Past and Present
"But what the Kondratieff wave is about is a study of long cycles of debt buildup and repudiation. It is not exclusively about price inflation and deflation periods. Deflation is caused in part by the debt collapse. It is also a generational thing as the next cycle of debt buildup and collapse is renewed every 2-3 generations as the previous generation that went through comparable periods dies off. The old adage that "this time it is different" means the circumstances are different, yes, but they fail to recognize that the previous period was the same in terms of excesses and therefore the end result is the same."
The average bear market is about 16 years. So if this one started in 2000 then K wave and the avg bear market is saying similar things.
From this info we should not be surprised by all the news stories to come about increases in poverty, people saving and reducing debt etc.
Kondratieff Long Wave Cycles Past and Present
"But what the Kondratieff wave is about is a study of long cycles of debt buildup and repudiation. It is not exclusively about price inflation and deflation periods. Deflation is caused in part by the debt collapse. It is also a generational thing as the next cycle of debt buildup and collapse is renewed every 2-3 generations as the previous generation that went through comparable periods dies off. The old adage that "this time it is different" means the circumstances are different, yes, but they fail to recognize that the previous period was the same in terms of excesses and therefore the end result is the same."