All I know is Bull...

[cooch96]

There are a few looooonnng peak-to-peak periods in there that are kindof scary. Heck, the 1999 crowd is just now getting back to pre-crash levels, adjusted for inflation.

Wow, that’s an entire generation of no real growth, but I don’t think that includes dividends, does it? Now I’m really curious.

 

[corn18]

Wow, that’s an entire generation of no real growth, but I don’t think that includes dividends, does it? Now I’m really curious.

It does not include dividends. I tried to find one that did but alas, I could not.

 

[Maenad]

Best advice I can give is to stay humble and accept that your emotions will be screaming at you to run for the hills. And remember that just because you're scared, doesn't mean you need to do something to alleviate the fear. Sometimes you need to just live with it, which is really hard. Bears are also scary because they happen so fast - the "escalator up, elevator down" thing.

It's good during those times to hang around with the "old timers" - here and Bogleheads, where you have a lot of people who lived through the dot com bust and the Great Recession. There's usually just enough calm, steady people that can help you hold on, though it will likely still be a white-knuckle ride.

Places like the FI subreddit and MMM forums, which trend younger, will likely be more scared, so you may want to reduce exposure there. Apparently Reddit was practically chock-full of Chicken Littles during the Correction earlier this year, so that place will likely be panic-inducing.

 

[Midpack]

It has been nice, but I’m glad I was fully invested in 87, 00 and 08, because I know I can sleep through downturns without panicking. Presumably all of us have planned using historic returns, so recessions or worse are factored in. I’ve reduced our equity allocation slightly over the past few years as we don’t need to take as much risk with the growth of our nest egg since 09.

I’m not planning on it by any means, but Australia just had a run of at least 25 years without a recession, wouldn’t that be nice (though there are other factors that determine COL/QOL). My point is looking at the duration of past bull and bear markets isn’t of much use. If it was predictable, we’d all be rich(er). Could be much worse, but it could be much better...time will tell.

 

[jollystomper]

The thing to know about only experiencing a bull market is that, while intellectually you can study the past, when a vicious bear hits, what you'll experience is an emotional reaction. It's one thing to know intellectually that your investments will drop 50% one day, and then take 4-5 years to get back to even. It's another to witness it happen, in the middle of making life plans, and to stay the course. I have a hunch that lots of people will change their asset allocation after they've had the emotional experience of a bear market.

+1

I remember the crash of 1987. Dozens of folks in my office, all of whom I considered sane, rational people, rushed to change their 401K allocations to a "safer" balance once they found out what the impact of the crash was. A minority said to say the course.

I was tempted myself, being 90% in stocks at the time. But I listened to some older wiser folks who wisely pointed out that the money I "lost" was money I would not be needing for 35+ years (I was 29 at the time and was assuming retirement based on my SS FRA), and that I should be patient. Perhaps not looking at retiring at 40 or 50 at the time helped my patience.

 

[Oz investor]

i am looking for an income stream ,
IF interest-bearing securities start offering fair reward for the risk i will start focusing surplus cash there , but so far shares are the game ( despite the prospective losses )

 

[Chuckanut]

It's good during those times to hang around with the "old timers" - here and Bogleheads, where you have a lot of people who lived through the dot com bust and the Great Recession. There's usually just enough calm, steady people that can help you hold on, though it will likely still be a white-knuckle ride.

+1 on listening to the old-timers.



I remember the time we had the 20% market drop in one day - 1987. It was a turbulent week to be sure. Who shows up on Wall Street Week but John Templeton - well dressed, a smile on his face, and lots of grey hair showing his experience. In his calm voice he explained how this was just a temporary glitch, no reason to panic if one is invested for the long term.

 

[gayl]

I've been thru a few corrections while employed so in retirement moved 10% to CDs