Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200?

[RockOn]

Well just a few years ago if you wanted to own corn or wheat, you had to build a big silo and ask the nearest farmer to provide you with the commodity. If you wanted to own oil, you could always build a big underground tank and have the black gold delivered directly to your property. In other words: not very practical. But now, we can all own commodities with the push of a button via ETFs. No storage. So a lot more people and institutions have been able to invest in commodities and drive the price up. Think about pension funds investing even a small portion of the trillions of dollars they manage into commodities and how the price of those commodities can be affected. That was my point. Is the price of oil going up because we consume more and/or produce less or because of speculation? I think both. Gold is another example of commodities going up partly because of speculation in my opinion.

I agree. The GLD ETF might be causing demand all by itself. Yet, the whole world places a value on an ounce of gold so I'm not sure just how much the US factors you point out contribute to the gain.