Early days for clarity on disease course with data compilation further behind yet. No original source but I've seen an estimate that in 80 percent the disease course is mild with 20 percent becoming severely ill. There was a list of early patients published somewhere showing that some died up to a month after becoming ill. I also read that China does not have a system of physicians providing primary care outside a hospital or institutional setting.
This ^^^ says to me that *maybe* the mildly ill are staying outside the hospital and thus data compilation system. That many more are mildly infected (and recover spontaneously) than reported is a possible plus in estimating the overall fatality rate. But then conversely, the larger number is a negative when estimating future disease spread and containability. And the death rate among the severely ill may be higher than first estimated.
Another issue may be that even the "mildly" ill require a few weeks for full recovery. The last time we had the flu it led to bronchitis and we must have been officially "sick" for at least three weeks. So much is unknown with only conjecture at this point.
This ^^^ says to me that *maybe* the mildly ill are staying outside the hospital and thus data compilation system. That many more are mildly infected (and recover spontaneously) than reported is a possible plus in estimating the overall fatality rate. But then conversely, the larger number is a negative when estimating future disease spread and containability. And the death rate among the severely ill may be higher than first estimated.
Another issue may be that even the "mildly" ill require a few weeks for full recovery. The last time we had the flu it led to bronchitis and we must have been officially "sick" for at least three weeks. So much is unknown with only conjecture at this point.
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