aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
The word is that the new Bolt will not be until 2025. The Equinox is slated for 2024 and the EV Blazer is here already. But they are coming....from everyone!
Electric Vehicles - Models Discussion
- Thread starter DallasGuy
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The word is that the new Bolt will not be until 2025. The Equinox is slated for 2024 and the EV Blazer is here already. But they are coming....from everyone!
Midpack
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“Just copying Tesla” isn’t as easy as that makes it sound, or they would have already done so.
Tesla is way more vertically integrated than the big three or most legacy automakers. The big three spent decades outsourcing everything so they don’t make much aside from engines themselves anymore, they just assemble from parts bins. Ford CEO Jim Farley said there are 150 systems on a typical Ford, most made by other manufacturers, and they all use whatever software they choose. As you might imagine, those systems don’t talk to each other, so making some changes is impossible - and only the supplier has control. That makes OTA updates, or simple fixes, beyond Fords control. Furthermore, Ford has more mechanical and electrical engineers than they will need for EVs and nowhere near the army of software engineers, who are capable of dealing with software like Tesla builds into every car. It's said Tesla resembles a tech company more than a legacy auto enterprise.
Now consider the above and supply chain. The big three are at the mercy of the hundreds of suppliers they’ve ceded to over the decades, Tesla much less so. The big three need to develop in house software and vertical integration to be competitive with EVs BUT they have no choice but to continue all their suppliers for the ICE vehicles. Imagine the push pull in those relationships as the big three transition?
Giga castings. There are a limited number of providers, it’s not as if the big three can just order Giga presses as they’d like. It will take years to develop those designs, then the parts, and then put them into production. Tesla is already well down that road.
Those are just two dilemmas legacy auto faces transitioning to EVs. Copying Tesla is much harder than many realize…
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aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
To add to the excellent post by Midpack above on the supply chain differences, the legacy auto makers also have many different "platforms" in their model lineup adding complexity while Tesla has focused on pretty much a single "standard" model selection. I feel Tesla has done a marvelous job of bringing EV's back into reality after GM shelved the effort years ago.
Having a large number of differently built and assembled vehicles has resulted in building stand-alone factories for the specific model lineups. Note that Tesla has not introduced any new models since the Y, and the Y is pretty much a Model 3 expanded. I've driven both, and they are not that different.
I recall years ago visiting the GM assembly plant near Boston that was a "BOP" plant (Buick-Oldsmobile-Pontiac) and that plant only assembled one platform, large size sedans. That was how the legacy manufacturers ran their businesses.
Having many plants building specific models and having diverse model lineups per brand makes it difficult to introduce EV's engineering into any specific facility. This is one reason Farley at Ford is trying to make EV's a separate business unit totally away from the many ICE plants it has now. I think GM is headed that way and both companies are struggling with that, and the Pandemic didn't help towards accomplishing much in that direction.
Sooner or later, the legacy companies will accomplish getting these new EV vehicles built and selling in large numbers, but it will be a good while. They have plenty of history in building cars and trucks (100+ years) and lots of resources to draw from. The current ICE business needs to be successful to generate the cash flows they need to cover expansion costs as they can't rely on government subsidies or selling emission credits since they make vehicles that offset their ability to generate credits.
We may see them struggle for a while under union pressures, but over time they will either move most manufacturing south, or shut certain business lines down as they phase out lines. Believe me, they know how to do this.
I was the Engineering Manager in a large union manufacturing plant in the late 1970's (Connecticut) and worked a strike for 6 months. Our salaried folks ran the plant to keep it somewhat "alive". And we had to cross the Steelworkers picket lines each day of that 6 months. Those six months were a bitch, on a personal basis. Three years later, our plant went out of business as we became non competitive (foreign competition). Manufacturing in the U.S. is a tough business if you are faced with union pressures. Sad, but true.
Having a large number of differently built and assembled vehicles has resulted in building stand-alone factories for the specific model lineups. Note that Tesla has not introduced any new models since the Y, and the Y is pretty much a Model 3 expanded. I've driven both, and they are not that different.
I recall years ago visiting the GM assembly plant near Boston that was a "BOP" plant (Buick-Oldsmobile-Pontiac) and that plant only assembled one platform, large size sedans. That was how the legacy manufacturers ran their businesses.
Having many plants building specific models and having diverse model lineups per brand makes it difficult to introduce EV's engineering into any specific facility. This is one reason Farley at Ford is trying to make EV's a separate business unit totally away from the many ICE plants it has now. I think GM is headed that way and both companies are struggling with that, and the Pandemic didn't help towards accomplishing much in that direction.
Sooner or later, the legacy companies will accomplish getting these new EV vehicles built and selling in large numbers, but it will be a good while. They have plenty of history in building cars and trucks (100+ years) and lots of resources to draw from. The current ICE business needs to be successful to generate the cash flows they need to cover expansion costs as they can't rely on government subsidies or selling emission credits since they make vehicles that offset their ability to generate credits.
We may see them struggle for a while under union pressures, but over time they will either move most manufacturing south, or shut certain business lines down as they phase out lines. Believe me, they know how to do this.
I was the Engineering Manager in a large union manufacturing plant in the late 1970's (Connecticut) and worked a strike for 6 months. Our salaried folks ran the plant to keep it somewhat "alive". And we had to cross the Steelworkers picket lines each day of that 6 months. Those six months were a bitch, on a personal basis. Three years later, our plant went out of business as we became non competitive (foreign competition). Manufacturing in the U.S. is a tough business if you are faced with union pressures. Sad, but true.
Fermion
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
A tiny bit off topic but I thought a couple years ago when the Ford Lightning was just releasing and was the hottest thing that Ford would be rolling in EV money. The stock was above $20 on this, today it is under $10.
I have no idea where the EV market is going but trucks do seem to be brutal.
I have no idea where the EV market is going but trucks do seem to be brutal.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
I recall you were going to buy a position in Ford stock at that time. The problem is range with the electric trucks. Oh, I forgot about the cost!
As alway, the problem with EVs comes down to batteries and increasing battery density. Until there is some magical breakthrough in significantly increasing battery density, we are stuck with what is now.
Anyone can make a car or write software...but it's all about the battery.
Fermion
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I recall you were going to buy a position in Ford stock at that time. The problem is range with the electric trucks. Oh, I forgot about the cost!
As alway, the problem with EVs comes down to batteries and increasing battery density. Until there is some magical breakthrough in significantly increasing battery density, we are stuck with what is now.
Anyone can make a car or write software...but it's all about the battery.
Yes, I almost did buy a position in Ford but lucky for me it didn't quite meet my buy point. I also almost bought a position in Exxon but got really worried that they would have a horrible future because of stuff like the popularity of Lightning. That was unlucky...EV scared me off of big oil and today big oil is raking in the money.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Oil is not going away anytime soon and the world is still using more and more of it each year. Like things made out of plastic? Exxon is heading back to ~$100. They have new huge finds offshore Guyana (South America). It may be time to start a position in XOM.
I would not buy any auto stocks as they are facing a lot of bad years transitioning to EV/ICE businesses.
I thought it was interesting that Honda has given up on the idea of building EVs based on the GM Ultium platform. I never understood how those vehicles were going to actually be Hondas.
https://insideevs.com/news/693180/gm-honda-ditch-affordable-ev-plan/
https://insideevs.com/news/693180/gm-honda-ditch-affordable-ev-plan/
Midpack
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While Honda has lost interest somewhat, they didn't really have a choice now that GM has ratcheted back their transition to EVs themselves. It's not like they're going to push for Honda while they scale back themselves. And the simple fact is Honda, like Subaru and some other smaller legacy automakers, doesn't have the scale to do EVs on their own - they have no choice but to glom onto someone else who does. I agree a partnership between GM and Honda wasn't an obvious choice. If the world truly transitions to EVs over the long run, there are some smaller legacy automakers who will either sell rebadged cars, or they will disappear...
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JoeWras
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I think the whole EV situation with Honda and Toyota is interesting, and I wonder how it will all play out. They are clearly struggling to gain traction.
Honda-GM was odd. When GM partnered with Toyota, it was awesome (if you bought a GM) because the cars were really Toyotas. GM would add OnStar or something to give it a GM flavor, but it was a Toyota underneath where it mattered.
Here Honda was going to do the opposite. I'm not sure GM would be my partner of choice.
No offense to GM fans. I was a long time GM owner and if I had to buy an American brand, it would be my choice. But after comparing my Subaru to my GM cars, I'm done with GM for now.
Honda-GM was odd. When GM partnered with Toyota, it was awesome (if you bought a GM) because the cars were really Toyotas. GM would add OnStar or something to give it a GM flavor, but it was a Toyota underneath where it mattered.
Here Honda was going to do the opposite. I'm not sure GM would be my partner of choice.
No offense to GM fans. I was a long time GM owner and if I had to buy an American brand, it would be my choice. But after comparing my Subaru to my GM cars, I'm done with GM for now.
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aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
GM kind of partnered years ago with Honda. GM's Saturn SUV's (Vue) built between 2004 and 2007 had Honda V6's and transmissions made by Honda. My daughter had one and it was a good vehicle. But that was not the same as joining up on a new vehicle build up.
ken830
Recycles dryer sheets
Yes. "Copying Tesla" is easier said than done. I'm not sure what I said to suggest otherwise. It is simple, but hard. It's still easier and less costly than having to figure it out from scratch like Tesla did. Legacy auto needs to make those investments to bring themselves to Tesla's level of integration. In fact, all auto companies were extremely vertically-integrated before they started outsourcing to suppliers decades ago.
I have studied Tesla extremely closely for over a decade, and it really is that simple. Copying Tesla (we're talking just their auto business) and they will survive. Going beyond that and they could thrive. But many don't want to do that because it is painful to do. But what choice do they have?
The only ones trying to do so are Rivian, the Chinese start-ups, and Lucid, all to various degrees of success. It's easier for startups because they don't have an existing culture or processes in place to overcome.
A prime example is the infotainment system. Legacy auto just farms it out to suppliers and then they give it away to Google or Apple with Android Auto or CarPlay. Now their customer's interface with their vehicle is completely out of their hands. Any future profits from information will also be directed out of their hands.
Or something as simple as the charge port door. Tesla integrates it behind the taillight assembly, which is great looking because you don't have a cutout in the body panel, but it also means that there is no color-matched painting involved, which saves cost in manufacturing. At least they are all being "forced" to copy the NACS connector soon. Having CCS meant having two completely separate sets of HV cables to the connector.
Bottom line- it's going to take money and effort to make the transition, but Tesla has shown the way.
I have studied Tesla extremely closely for over a decade, and it really is that simple. Copying Tesla (we're talking just their auto business) and they will survive. Going beyond that and they could thrive. But many don't want to do that because it is painful to do. But what choice do they have?
The only ones trying to do so are Rivian, the Chinese start-ups, and Lucid, all to various degrees of success. It's easier for startups because they don't have an existing culture or processes in place to overcome.
A prime example is the infotainment system. Legacy auto just farms it out to suppliers and then they give it away to Google or Apple with Android Auto or CarPlay. Now their customer's interface with their vehicle is completely out of their hands. Any future profits from information will also be directed out of their hands.
Or something as simple as the charge port door. Tesla integrates it behind the taillight assembly, which is great looking because you don't have a cutout in the body panel, but it also means that there is no color-matched painting involved, which saves cost in manufacturing. At least they are all being "forced" to copy the NACS connector soon. Having CCS meant having two completely separate sets of HV cables to the connector.
Bottom line- it's going to take money and effort to make the transition, but Tesla has shown the way.
ncbill
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
To be blunt there are better options than the Ultium's cobalt-based battery pack already here (LFP) & coming soon enough (solid state electrolyte)
So why would Honda tether themselves to an inferior battery technology?
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
My new Bolt continues to amaze me:
Yesterday, coming home from an outing, I turned off the climate control (CC) and just enjoyed the nice weather with the windows open. This morning when I went to the garage and got ready to head out, the outside temperature had dropped to 45 F from 70+ yesterday.
So I headed off and didn't do much to the car as it was still comfy from being garaged all night. About a mile down the road, I noticed the steering wheel and my seat getting warm (I had not turned on the climate control as of yet). Apparently, the car sensed I was driving with the CC off and decided to warm me up by turning on the heated steering wheel and heated seat. How nice!
Another surprise: as I went up the ramp to L-45, I had my left blinker on from the feeder and didn't remember to shut it off (mostly straight on ramp) as the music was louder than the click. A ways down the freeway, a message flashes and beeps on my instrument cluster to remind me the left blinker was still on.
These cars are getting to the point of having minds of their own!
Yesterday, coming home from an outing, I turned off the climate control (CC) and just enjoyed the nice weather with the windows open. This morning when I went to the garage and got ready to head out, the outside temperature had dropped to 45 F from 70+ yesterday.
So I headed off and didn't do much to the car as it was still comfy from being garaged all night. About a mile down the road, I noticed the steering wheel and my seat getting warm (I had not turned on the climate control as of yet). Apparently, the car sensed I was driving with the CC off and decided to warm me up by turning on the heated steering wheel and heated seat. How nice!
Another surprise: as I went up the ramp to L-45, I had my left blinker on from the feeder and didn't remember to shut it off (mostly straight on ramp) as the music was louder than the click. A ways down the freeway, a message flashes and beeps on my instrument cluster to remind me the left blinker was still on.
These cars are getting to the point of having minds of their own!
explanade
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Midpack
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Lots of vaporware on that list, especially most of the GM & Honda offerings - they've publicly acknowledged slowing their EV rollout. Those lists are PR hoping people in the market will wait for legacy auto EVs to come, but they'll be waiting a long time...
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
I'll bet we won't see any of the Fisker eye candy. Have they even made one car that is saleable yet? And like yoy say, the GM/Honda effort is cancelled.
Midpack
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Funny thing is I actually followed a Fisker Ocean into a Target parking lot here in NC. Got out to look at it, because I wasn't sure what it was. First and only one I've ever seen, but at least one exists. I just looked at their website and didn't see how to order one?
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Oh, one exists! Funny thing that Fisker has been around a long time trying to build EVs. I guess they exist on investor's contributions.
Another thing about the new models in that above link is that they are mostly priced very high. Who will be buying all that expensive iron?
explanade
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So no Acura ZDX or Honda Prologue?
Or Buick Elektra, Chevy Blazer, Chevy Equinox, Cadillac Celestiq, Cadillac Escalade, Chevrolet Silverado, Chevy Corvette, Chevy Bolt, GMC Sierra?
OK they do list a GM/Honda compact SUV for 2027, which is probably the one they definitely won't do.
Midpack
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Honda isn't going to build any additional EVs without GM behind them, and they publicly announced the end of that relationship. https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/new...o-develop-affordable-evs-together/ar-AA1iP9Pp
As for GM, they have also publicly announced they're slowing their transition to EVs. I assume you will see some if not all those models, but not on the timeline the CD link stated. I think GM realizes the Ultium battery is not a good idea after all, lots written about why.
ken830
Recycles dryer sheets
Another surprise: as I went up the ramp to L-45, I had my left blinker on from the feeder and didn't remember to shut it off (mostly straight on ramp) as the music was louder than the click. A ways down the freeway, a message flashes and beeps on my instrument cluster to remind me the left blinker was still on.
These cars are getting to the point of having minds of their own!
Nice! But it would've been better if it had awareness capabilities to just turned off the signal on its own à la Tesla.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
That's pretty cool.
I think the car's intent was to train me, rather than just do it for me. The Bolt want's drivers who can think and make decisions for themselves, I guess.
ken830
Recycles dryer sheets
Eventually, the car will have the sensors and on-board neural network required to be aware of its surroundings and situation and will be able to turn off the signal. For now, it's just Tesla Vision that can do it but soon, it will be most vehicles.
ERD50
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Disagree. At this stage, it's great when a car (or any other device, under many situations) just informs you, so you can decide what to do. In most cases, I don't want the device to decide for me - that may not be what I want. I'm the driver, not the car (until we get rid of the steering wheel and pedals).
-ERD50
