Funds flow looking positive ... I think :)

[Lsbcal]

I occasionally update my chart of the ICI funds flow data. Here is the chart up through Feb 2019:

In the thread title I did not mean that the flows were positive but rather the data interpretation is positive IMO.

From this data it looks like we are not in a euphoric stage i.e. the market does not seem to be irrationally exuberant (to me). The 6 month moving average of total equity (US + foreign) is negative. If you think this is a contrary indicator, it's good news for bulls.

Looks like flows are very negative for foreign equity. So maybe at some point foreign funds will pop up?

 

[Lsbcal]

I realized that this chart could be improved. So I took out the bonds fund flow to just focus on equities. Then I put in the next 12 months return for the SP500 (axis on right side of chart).

So now one can more easily see that when the funds flows are negative for the last 6 months (green bars), that correlates pretty well with decent SP500 returns over the next 12 months (red line).

Naturally the sp500 next 12mo line only goes up to February 2018. No crystal ball here.