Iran

[Marshac]

Anyone worried?

 

[sgeeeee]

Worry won't help.

 

[dex]

As far as I know Iran doesn't have a working bomb or a delivery system. I don't think it would even use a dirty bomb against US troops in Iraq. However it could use a small dirty bomb against USA war ships.

I think the USA will try to get world support for any actions. Even the French recently said it would use their necular weapons against terriorst if threatened.

 

[brewer12345]

If I were in charge in Iran, I would stick one of my own oil tankers (loaded to the gills) as close to international shipping lanes as possible but still in Iranian national waters and detonate a bomb on the ****er. They do not need nukes or anything else to play chicken with the rest of the world: they have oil. If push comes to shove and the Iranians pull their supply off the world market, that January outperformance everyone is so happy about will reverse pretty quickly (and then some).

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

If I were in charge in Iran, I would stick one of my own oil tankers (loaded to the gills) as close to international shipping lanes as possible but still in Iranian national waters and detonate a bomb on the ****er.  They do not need nukes or anything else to play chicken with the rest of the world: they have oil.  If push comes to shove and the Iranians pull their supply off the world market, that January outperformance everyone is so happy about will reverse pretty quickly (and then some).

Iran won't do that. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that oil exports finance about half of the Iranian government's budget.

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/news/2006/06_01_18_oil.htm

"But while it might be technically feasible for Iran to halt production for a time—it might mothball wells or put the oil it produces into storage—economically it could be disastrous. In the short term Iran would lose the revenue it earns by selling oil. The costs could be greater in the long term. The price surges of the 1970s and early 1980s provoked a collapse in demand, as governments lifted fuel taxes and consumers sought more efficient products, particularly cars. The high prices also spurred exploration in non-OPEC countries, which held down the price of oil even after demand started to rebound. OPEC’s oil revenues in 1980 were three times higher than the average annual take in the two decades that followed."

 

[Rustic23]

I would not bet on Iran or North Korea having a 'working bomb', and while neither may have a missle that will hit the US, there are ships that make Iran and New York/LA/Houston/New Orleans, a port of call. brewer12345 idea of a tanker in Iranian waters is not near as worrysome as a US port. There are many nations that have 'the bomb' not all are our 'friends' i.e. China. None, that I am aware of, have captured our embasy, called us the 'Great Satan' or call for the distruction of one of our allies. Am I worried... not really, but if $5 a gallon or even $10 is the price of freedom, then I am willing to pay it.... how many other Americans do you think are?

 

[brewer12345]

Iran won't do that.  The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that oil exports finance about half of the Iranian government's budget.

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/news/2006/06_01_18_oil.htm

"But while it might be technically feasible for Iran to halt production for a time—it might mothball wells or put the oil it produces into storage—economically it could be disastrous. In the short term Iran would lose the revenue it earns by selling oil. The costs could be greater in the long term. The price surges of the 1970s and early 1980s provoked a collapse in demand, as governments lifted fuel taxes and consumers sought more efficient products, particularly cars. The high prices also spurred exploration in non-OPEC countries, which held down the price of oil even after demand started to rebound. OPEC’s oil revenues in 1980 were three times higher than the average annual take in the two decades that followed."

That, of course, assumes that Iran's leaders are willing and able to make rational choices. I am not convinced that they will do so.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

That, of course, assumes that Iran's leaders are willing and able to make rational choices.  I am not convinced that they will do so.

Perhaps not, but like any other business that risks alienating its customers, it can either compromise or fail.

From wikipedia's discussion of the 1973 oil crisis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_energy_crisis

"Part of the decline in prices and economic and geopolitical power of OPEC comes from the move away from oil consumption to alternate energy sources. OPEC had relied on the famously limited price sensitivity of oil demand to maintain high consumption, but had underestimated the extent to which other sources of supply would become profitable as the price increased. Electricity generation from nuclear power and natural gas, home heating from natural gas and ethanol blended gasoline all reduced the demand for oil.

At the same time, the drop in prices represented a serious problem for oil-producing countries in Northern Europe and the Persian Gulf region. For a handful of heavily populated, impoverished countries, whose economies were largely dependent on oil — including Mexico, Nigeria, Algeria, and Libya — governments and business leaders failed to prepare for a market reversal, the price drop placed them in wrenching, sometimes desperate situations.

When reduced demand and over-production produced a glut on the world market in the mid-1980s, oil prices plummeted and the cartel lost its unity. Oil exporters such as Mexico, Nigeria, and Venezuela, whose economies had expanded frantically, were plunged into near-bankruptcy, and even Saudi Arabian economic power was significantly weakened. The divisions within OPEC made subsequent concerted action more difficult."

 

[eriter]

Even the French recently said it would use their necular weapons against terriorst if threatened.

I would feel better if the French were on Iran's side. 8)

 

[retire@40]

Can you imagine if we didn't go into Afghanistan and Iraq when we did and now we'd be looking at the prospect of fighting Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan all at once!

I'm sure Libya would have not given up it's WMD and they along with Syria would have added to the mix and North Korea would have seen an opportunity to hit us as well while we were busy trying to fight 3 or 4 other countries.

Maybe putting out the little fire in Iraq was much better afterall than trying to fight a blazing forest fire down the road.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Am I worried?

A little, considering we'll probably be fighting a world war III class situation with the US and Iran as the main combatants. They're not fond of israel, and frankly not real thrilled with the saudi's american butt kissing, what happened in iraq and afghanistan, and they've got a million well trained soldiers in the region that unlike iraq have an actual air force, well equipped army and so forth.

I dont think North Korea is a factor though. They're just a shoebox country with a lot of starving citizens and a mentally defective leader who wants some recognition. They might jump into something but I dont think they make a difference.

As far as fighting iran and iraq at the same time, I wouldnt exactly call our attack of iraq a 'saving' there. Hussein vehemently resisted the muslim religious movement in his own country (a source of a lot of that 'torture' stuff), and fought the iranians numerous times. Thats the primary reason why we didnt grab him in the first gulf war...despite what he may or may not have been as a leader, he provided a buffer between our interests and iran.

Now WE'RE the buffer. With a tired army. In harms way.

I guess the good news is, it was probably going to happen anyway, and the way we're positioned now from a strategic perspective isnt that bad.

Unless iran does have tactical nukes, and they hit our carrier group thats providing air support.

Then its anybody's game.

 

[brewer12345]

I guess the good news is, it was probably going to happen anyway, and the way we're positioned now from a strategic perspective isnt that bad.

You've got to be kidding. You really think that Iran, Iraq, Palestine, etc. wouldn't still be totally engrossed in their petty regional squabbles instead of united against the great satan if our moronic "leadership" hadn't stuck our collective snout into the bee's nest?

I think we are headed for a draft, kids. Doesn't look like we are getting out of Iraq in the next 5 years, and the ME is destabilized enough that we will almost certainly get dragged into another conflict there soon. Hard to see how the US military is capable of carrying all that out in its current form.

 

[justin]

open our borders for migrant soldiers. 8) Hey, if they can mow our grass and flip our burgers, maybe they can fight for us too.

 

[sgeeeee]

. . . Maybe putting out the little fire in Iraq was much better afterall than trying to fight a blazing forest fire down the road.

Or maybe there never was a fire till we started it by our invasion.

 

[uncledrz]

Sure I'm worried when a nation that has attacked us (our embassy), or at least allowed/supported such an attack, that is led by one of its radical leaders who spits venom at us at every turn, is now in the process of developing nuclear weapons, you bet I'm worried.

Add that we are now bogged down in fighting in Iraq (and thus have no real force to direct to the new threat) where weapons of mass distruction (remember those) were dismantled in the early 90's and thus we not only are at war, but at war basically on our own, you bet I'm worried.

Add to that the fact that we are in servere debt and trade imbalance making our economic response to these threats ineffective, you bet I'm worried.

 

[HFWR]

Remember what Israel did to Iraq's reactor program?

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Remember what Israel did to Iraq's reactor program?

I may be way off base, but I'm under the impression we're (the USA) tugging on their leash to hold them back from doing it to Iran now.

 

[laurence]

I say let go of the leash. They are still a couple years away from having enough fissile material to even think nuke. While they have some low grade raw material, it takes quite some time to spin that stuff up to bomb grade, and they haven't even made the centerfuges yet. So it's a perfect time to level all their R&D facilities.

Hey, I think the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, but U.N. economic sanctions will only further radicalize the people of Iran while killing off a few thousand malnurished babies. Level their facilites, let them scream for a few months. Letting Israel do the dirty work is perfect. What? Are they going to chant "Death to Israel!" twice as often as they do now?

 

[Zipper]

I like you laurence, I really do.

What you suggest however, has the possibility of blowing up into something that could wreck all our retirements.

It could be 1914 all over again, only much worse.

 

[laurence]

Maybe I'm just in a bad mood today. I promise I won't run for office, have no fear.

 

[Rustic23]

It mystifies me how the folks that post on this board can have so little faith in the military. As a former Air Force pilot, and father of a Marine pilot, I can assure you we are only 'over committed' in the eyes of the press! I have first hand knowledge as to the abilities of the average Iranian fighter pilot. I will pit our worst F-15 pilot against anyone they have. Are your memories so short that you don't remember the gloom and doom the press put forth if we were to venture into Iraq.... the third or forth largest military in the World!

 

[sgeeeee]

It mystifies me how the folks that post on this board can have so little faith in the military. As a former Air Force pilot, and father of a Marine pilot, I can assure you we are only 'over committed' in the eyes of the press! I have first hand knowledge as to the abilities of the average Iranian fighter pilot. I will pit our worst F-15 pilot against anyone they have. Are your memories so short that you don't remember the gloom and doom the press put forth if we were to venture into Iraq.... the third or forth largest military in the World!

I have great faith in the military and the technology of our forces. I happen to know a lot about our military technology and how superior it is to everything else. We also have a more highly trained and disciplined military than anyone else (since Nords retired).

But the military can only do what can be accomplished by weapons and armies. That's a long way from peace and stability. You ask if we've forgotten the gloom and doom the press put forth if we were to venture into Iraq. Well. . . no. Have you forgotten that we are still in that war? that over 2000 troops have died? over 10,000 wounded? and that there is no end in sight? Maybe the press was more right about Iraq than this administration.

 

[JPatrick]

Yup, Saddam could put on a fine military parade and so can Iran, so unless we take them on in a "battle of the Bands" or something, I don't think their military is especially impressive.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

the third or forth largest military in the World!

That had no air force, no navy, and that the world had beaten down to nearly nothing for about ten years?

I can assure you the iranian military bears little resemblance to the iraqi one. They arent going to throw out "bahgdad bob" and then fold a week later.

 

[unclemick]

Hmmm

The knot head Marine Infantry Officer leaves this this month for his third 'vacation' in Iraq. All the Navy ones are now stateside and the landings still equal the take-offs.

Sometimes I ponder the price of 'victory' - on relatives AND my ER portfolio. Doesn't last long and I sleep well at night.

The tide of history - is er ah well -the tide of history.

Second cup of coffee post.

heh heh heh